What Knutson et al are asking us to do in essence is to put all that aside (because, they argue — in short — that its not the warming but the pattern
of warming that matters here) and instead take on
faith the perhaps not - much - more - than 50/50 proposition that the
mean changes in ENSO state and variability projected by the IPCC multimodel ensemble (which are a
key determinant in the projected future Atlantic TC activity) should be trusted.