Not exact matches
Sportsbooks
know they'll receive
public money on those two teams regardless of the line, and those shaded lines have provided value for opportunistic contrarian
bettors.
Public bettors are prone to taking the underdog when two ranked teams play each other, and Saturday's game has been
no different.
The Cowboys are historically a favorite team of
public bettors and this season has been
no different.
We do not recommend betting against every single ranked team, but
knowing that these rankings can artificially inflate the line based on
public perception can help add value for sharp
bettors.
Since sportsbooks
know that they will receive
public money on the favorite in nearly every game, many
bettors believe that it's best to wait until the last moment before placing a wager on the underdog.
That said, Notre Dame is a very
public team which means
no matter what their futures price, there are many
bettors who will still take the Irish.
Public bettors are often drawn to the Cubs to win the World Series and oddsmakers
knew that Chicago had a strong, deep organization in terms of youth players so that price made sense.
Most oddsmakers
know which games will take one - sided
public betting, so they will shade their opening lines to account for dull
bettors racing to the window like drunkards (or myself) racing to the bar at last call.
Since we already
knew that a majority of
public bettors routinely take ranked teams against ranked opposition, I believed that we could exploit this tendency by focusing on heavily bet games where shading would be more prevalent.
Obviously,
public bettors are going to gravitate towards the big well -
known teams: Duke, UNC, Kentucky, Kansas... perhaps Louisville once upon a time, but probably not this year.
Trend to
know: The Jags are getting lots of love from
public bettors after beating Houston 45 - 7 in Week 15.
Sportsbooks
know they'll be able to take a ton of
public action on McGregor while sharp
bettors will likely take the big favorite again.
Bovada, which is well
known to
bettors as a very
public / square sportsbook, posted prop bets for six of the major awards including outstanding series, actor and actress.
Bettors may also be interested to
know that Miami fits the criteria for our 2015 - 16 and 2016 - 17 NBA Betting Against the
Public systems.
t's extremely rare to find favorites who are being ignored by
public bettors, we wanted to
know whether this trend had been profitable in past years and what the sweet spot was for these contrarian favorites.
Although the Yankees are typically a very
public team, the fact that they have dropped from +400 to +450 indicates that
public bettors may
no longer be smitten with the «Evil Empire.»
The sportsbooks that participate with us feel that members
knowing which side the
public is favoring will not hurt their business model because
bettors still have to pick winners.
It's not entirely shocking to see this type of line movement in games with extreme levels of one - sided
public betting, but
bettors may be surprised to
know just how much the line is moving.
Because the
public is heavily taking Houston, Sports Interaction (SIA), which is
known as a book that caters to
public bettors (as opposed to sharp or professional
bettors) has shaded the Texans to -3.5, instead of the -3 that is currently the market consensus.
Tulsa (11) vs. Michigan (11)
No surprise here but
public bettors are all over Michigan so far, as the Wolverines are getting over 80 % of bets and money.
Bettors may also be interested to
know that there has only been one game in our database in which Florida receiving such limited
public support at home — an October 1, 2011 matchup against Alabama in which they received just 22 % of spread bets.
These are typically two of the most trendy teams for
bettors, but we wanted to
know how
public betting in the Tobacco Road Rivalry compared to every other game.
Bettors should
know there's roughly three times more money bet on the spread as opposed to the total, which is why we don't typically advocate betting against the
public on the total.
You
know how
public bettors are... they generally have the memory of a hummingbird.
They
know which teams will attract
public money, and these shaded lines create excellent value for any contrarian
bettors who are willing to take an unpopular viewpoint.
We
know that it's usually sharp money responsible for moving a line, but for a massive match like this, an influx of
public bettors at +250 can really change the odds.