The financial crash of the U.S. housing market during the 2008 crisis is one of the most recent and well -
known black swan events as of 2017.
Not exact matches
«We don't
know what the «
black swan is,» he said, referring to an unexpected
event.
We don't
know whether this qualifies as a
black swan event, but a drop of more than 4 % during a bull market is indeed very rare.
Black swans are catastrophic
events that no one sees coming, while «grey
swans,» as the are
known, are extreme
events for which there's no historical precedent, but that could still potentially be predicted.
The fact, three years on from when his book was written, this alleged
black swan event hasn't happened and in fact multiple of the currencies he recommended as a «hedge» have tanked against the dollar (Canadian dollar) or have seen extreme swings (Australian dollar) tells you everything you need to
know about this «hedge» strategy.
He wrote a terrific nonfiction bestseller last year, The
Black Swan — the title is his term for a totally unexpected, utterly game - changing
event, like 9/11 — that explored the importance of what we falsely think we
know.
If it is the latter, however, the mere use of «
black swans» to label their theory is confusing, to say the least, because the «
black swan» example is a well -
known metaphor used by Popper and other philosophers of science when explaining the occurrence of
events that go against the predictions of well - established theories / laws.
I don't
know what a
Black Swan event would be, a new ice age, an astroid strike, a shut down of an ocean current...??? None of those has anything to do with the currant CAGW debate nor ar they anything that we can prepare for.