Oscillations of a few years would just not stand up to the natural variation sloshing patterns caused by the winds, see
known sea level changes during El Niño etc..
Not exact matches
I had always been interested to
know what prompted that to happen but I believe the dates of
sea levels rising — and how they correspond to the volcano physically
changing — offer a potential explanation.
We already
know that climate
change has a hold on Earth's surface processes, such as erosion and fluctuations in
sea levels... but do surface processes in turn have an influence on volcanic activity?
It demonstrates that during a global climate transition in the late last interglacial, also
known as marine isotope substage 5e (MIS 5e), abrupt multi-meter
sea -
level changes occurred.
So, what tourism is impacting and actually what climate
change is impacting is a relatively very small piece of that peninsula; but you
know the impact on the peninsula if all that ice melts could be huge; when they talk about
sea levels rising, you
know, by inches and feet, you
know if that ice along the peninsula melts they will add to the volume of the
sea very quickly.
«At one
level, it just reinforces a point that we already
knew: that the effects of climate
change and
sea level rise are irreversible and going to be with us for thousands of years,» says Williams, who did not work on the study.
Understanding what's causing the
changes in the ice shelves «puts us a little bit closer to
knowing what's going to happen to the grounded ice, which is what will ultimately affect
sea -
level rise,» Fricker said.
«Until recently, only West Antarctica was considered unstable, but now we
know that its ten times bigger counterpart in the East might also be at risk,» says Levermann, who is head of PIK's research area Global Adaptation Strategies and a lead - author of the
sea -
level change chapter of the most recent scientific assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
change chapter of the most recent scientific assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change,
Change, IPCC.
Rohling: Yeah, so what we see is that for a current
level of forcing, so 1.6 watts per meter square net forcing, if we look in the relationship that we now recognize between
sea -
level change and climate forcing, we're are, more or less, looking at in the equilibrium state, natural equilibriumstate, where the planet would like to be that is similar to where we were 3.5 million years ago and that's where we're looking at
sea level, you
know, at least 15 meters, maybe 25 meters above the present.
Science also tells us things that are hard to hear and that we don't
know how to fix: Climate
change is melting glaciers, raising
sea levels and, new research shows, even affecting the ecosystems in our beloved lakes.
Geologists want to
know what continental shorelines looked like during this ancient era,
known as the Pliocene, in order to forecast future
sea -
level change.
A working group
known as PALSEA2 (Paleo constraints on
sea level rise) used past records of local
change in
sea level and converted them to a global mean
sea level by predicting how the surface of the Earth deforms due to
changes in ice - ocean loading of the crust, along with
changes in gravitational attraction on the ocean surface.
Scientists have long
known that small
changes in Earth's water cycle could lead to large, although temporary,
changes in the rate of
sea level rise.
Oppenheimer and his co-authors use a technique
known as «structured expert judgment» to put an actual value on the uncertainty that scientists studying climate
change have about a particular model's prediction of future events such as
sea -
level rise.
From studies of
changes in temperature and
sea level over the last million years, we
know that the climate system has tipping points.
It begins with
sea level rises of the far and nearer past, something I
know something about, and then moves to the current day
changes, something I
know little about.
Returning to the quote from the interview, why should geologists disagree with AGW because they
know how much
sea level has
changed in the past?
Scientific knowledge input into process based models has much improved, reducing uncertainty of
known science for some components of
sea -
level rise (e.g. steric
changes), but when considering other components (e.g. ice melt from ice sheets, terrestrial water contribution) science is still emerging, and uncertainties remain high.
While this consistency might be interpreted as an important corroboration, we find it a source of concern, since we
know that the processes that will dominate
sea -
level change in a high - warming scenario will differ from those that were dominant in recent millennia.
Munk
knew that the Earth's rotation had
changed, and he
knew that
sea -
level rise had occurred — he just couldn't make the two observations match up.
Consider these sorts of questions: Do you
know where your water (in your house and / or office) comes from and how those sources would be impacted by a
change in
sea level or associated climate
change?
We still don't
know the lethal and sublethal tolerances of deep
sea stony corals to
changing ocean pH
levels.
Steric
sea level is driven by volume
changes through ocean salinity (halosteric) and ocean temperature (thermosteric) effects, from which the latter is
known to play a dominant role in observed contemporary rise of GSSL.
Variability in the prevailing winds (which can extend over decades, England et al. 2014) will therefore lead to variability in the water
level along the coasts — but of course we
know that the wind can not
change global
sea level at all as it merely redistributes the water.
They
knew 30 years ago that climate
change could impact the electric grid with «more severe storms» and «destructive waves» caused by
sea level rise.
The reasonable agreement in recent years between the observed rate of
sea level rise and the sum of thermal expansion and loss of land ice suggests an upper limit for the magnitude of
change in land - based water storage, which is relatively poorly
known.
The risk facing humanity is that climate
change could spiral out of control and it will
no longer be possible to arrest trends such as ice melting and rising
sea level.
Nils - Axel Mörner: I
knew there would be a science conference in New York in June 2017 that focused on
sea level changes in Fiji.
We can do that by internalizing the
known costs of global warming and climate
change and
sea level rise that are not currently reflected in the price of the products that are causing them.
Short scale variability is well
known in the literature, it is poorly advertised.Nutation (1) for example provides good explanations for
changes in the growing season in the US (earlier)(2) and
changes in
sea level variability (3)
Anyway what makes you think you
know more about
sea level change, apart from your dogmatic arrogance?
«While no one expects our climate to
change in the space of a few days, like the movie, we do
know that fresh water flowing into our
seas could dramatically affect
sea levels and ocean circulation,» said study coauthor Alexander Forryan of the University of Southampton.
However, in order to precisely determine any apparent
sea level change, it is important to
know whether or not the land upon which the tide gauge is located is actually moving.»
This period,
known as the «last deglaciation,» included episodes of abrupt climate
change, such as the Bølling warming [~ 14.7 — 14.5 ka], when Northern Hemisphere temperatures increased by 4 — 5 °C in just a few decades [Lea et al., 2003; Buizert et al., 2014], coinciding with a 12 — 22 m
sea level rise in less than 340 years [5.3 meters per century](Meltwater Pulse 1a (MWP1a)-RRB-[Deschamps et al., 2012].»
Two wind patterns in the Indian Ocean,
known as the Hadley circulation and the Walker circulation, interact with the Indo - Pacific warm pool to drive
sea level changes.
At last, a responsible government has recognised that global average
sea -
level change is
no more relevant to coastal management than average global temperatures are to the design of residential heating and cooling systems — local weather and local
sea -
level change is what matters.
«The toll climate
change takes on the planet and humans — through
changes in temperature, rising
sea levels, extreme weather, and other phenomena — can
no longer be ignored.
The lower Chesapeake Bay is especially at risk due to high rates of sinking land (
known as subsidence).96 Climate
change and
sea level rise are also likely to cause a number of ecological impacts, including declining water quality and clarity, increases in harmful algae and low oxygen (hypoxia) events, decreases in a number of species including eelgrass and seagrass beds, and
changing interactions among trophic
levels (positions in the food chain) leading to an increase in subtropical fish and shellfish species in the bay.66
Paleoclimate data are not as helpful for defining the likely rate of
sea level rise in coming decades, because there is no
known case of growth of a positive (warming) climate forcing as rapid as the anthropogenic
change.
Gradual
sea level changes seem not dangerous but
no doubt more sensible town planning decisions could well be justified.
«We were instructed by our regional administrator that we were
no longer allowed to use the terms «global warming» or «climate
change, «or even «
sea -
level rise,»» Kristina Trotta, a former DEP employee who worked in Miami, told the FCIR.
Indeed if we look at their figure 7 the tide gauge record shows
NO change in
sea level since about 2003.
In summary, so little is
known abut the deeper 50 % of the oceans and their floors that it is dangerous science to state very much at all about mechanisms affecting
sea level change.
Contrary to the impression left by the IPCC Summary reports: - Recent observations of phenomena such as glacial retreats,
sea -
level rise and the migration of temperature - sensitive species are not evidence for abnormal climate
change, for none of these
changes has been shown to lie outside the bounds of
known natural variability.
Keep up the good work, I for one am sleeping better
knowing you're debunking those climate
change nutters, who, as far as I'm concerned, are probably just basing their conclusions on irrelevant things like record summer temperatures, melting ice - caps, rising
sea levels, weather chaos, increasing crop failures, species extinction, ocean acidification... blah, blah, blah.
take up your complaint that
sea level changes are not globally consistent with NOAA - a little
known organisation apparently
First, the graph you cite shows that the
sea level change before human emissions of CO2 became material are
no different than the
change after they became material.
It is intellectually dishonest to devote several pages to cherry - picking studies that disagree with the IPCC consensus on net health effects because you don't like its scientific conclusion, while then devoting several pages to hiding behind [a misstatement of] the U.N. consensus on
sea level rise because you
know a lot reasonable people think the U.N. wildly underestimated the upper end of the range and you want to attack Al Gore for worrying about 20 - foot
sea level rise.On this blog, I have tried to be clear what I believe with my earlier three - part series: Since
sea level, arctic ice, and most other climate
change indicators have been
changing faster than most IPCC models projected and since the IPCC neglects key amplifying carbon cycle feedbacks, the IPCC reports almost certainly underestimate future climate impacts.
«But if there is one scientist who
knows more about
sea levels than anyone else in the world it is the Swedish geologist and physicist Nils - Axel MÃ ¶ rner, formerly chairman of the INQUA International Commission on Sea Level Chan
sea levels than anyone else in the world it is the Swedish geologist and physicist Nils - Axel MÃ ¶ rner, formerly chairman of the INQUA International Commission on
Sea Level Chan
Sea Level Change.
As we all
know, Obama's Paris climate
change treaty will stop global warming and climate
change in their tracks - rising
sea levels too!