Sentences with phrase «known uncertainty ranges»

We should debate rational policy in the light of known facts, known uncertainty ranges, and plausible risks.

Not exact matches

For example, we know the past CO2 radiative forcing to very high accuracy, but there are more uncertainties in the aerosol forcing; applying a consistent climate sensitivity to both CO2 and aerosols, you can get a match to the observed record for a range of different supposed aerosol forcings, but you can't take it too far.

Pieter Tans of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration stressed the persistent uncertainty in the range of warming expected from a buildup of greenhouse gases as cutting against the idea of specific thresholds: «Our biggest science problem is that we do not know how strong the climate feedbacks are, or even whether we know all of the ones that are important on decadal and longer time scales,» he said in an e-mail.

Terry: As far as I know you can recreate the IPCC uncertainty range for a response to CO2 doubling by using a simple energy balance model.

When an experimentalist says the uncertainty in a range of known values is 2, I assume the uncertainty is 2 — or 1!)

Bob Droege, since you know that only the «known» anomaly may have doubled with a fairly large range of uncertainty, do you think saying, «ocean heat content doubled in 16 years.»

If I want to know what the true SST was at the precise location of HMS Endeavour on the 4th May 1877 at noon then I have to live with the fact that there is an error in that particular measurement and stick appropriate uncertainty ranges on it.

The same is true for any estimate of a physical parameter based on a method with a large range of uncertainty and no well defined theory or earlier data to define the prior.

What is important in many climate change impacts contexts is appropriately sampling the full range of known uncertainties, regardless of spatial resolution.

You also might be interested to know that the IPCC range of uncertainty is not stratified by sensitivity across this short period.

Matthew M, no, having boundaries is not good unless you allow people to choose more than one range to cover their uncertainty.

But I do know the difference between a simple linear interpolation and principal component analysis, and I can calculate the two standard deviations range of uncertainty on a white noise linear trend.

You apparently do not know that the range of uncertainty on a trend based on only a few points of noisy data is generally large and typically not significant, and that by including more data points you can reduce the range of uncertainty.

Don't know where I got my lines crossed but I herewith point out in Chapter1 figures 1.4 and 1.5, comparing near surface temperature range observed data with projections, 1990 — 2015 with its plateau of measured data warming and large uncertainty shading.

5) Even if we allow the (known to be false) assumption that the uncertainty of Anthro was constrained by Greenhouse and OA alone, and still follow the IPCC in dropping «very likely» to «likely» ranges, that would still only result in an «likely» range of + / - 0.16 C, and a less than 1 % chance of the Anthro contribution being less than 50 %.

Ken, No, I'm just regressing the Historical (All - forcings) forcing time series on the forcing time series for the constituent individual forcings.If they have been correctly included in Historical forcing, the coefficients should contain one within their uncertainty ranges, as they do except for land use forcing where they are consistent with zero.

In fact, it's a large stretch to assume that actual OLR, as opposed to calculated OLR, varied over that large a range for the time period, given the known large uncertainty in the NCEP / NCAR reanalysis data.

The key thing you learn from it is that the modern science of climate is well founded on basic sciences, and the uncertainties are no greater than any application of a range of sciences to a complex real - world problem.

The Russian real estate market is stagnating because people are no longer interested in buying housing on credit, due to the ongoing financial uncertainty in the country and high interest rates, which are the range of 18 to 19 per cent.