«With the US
labor market recovery gaining momentum, the hope for stronger global growth in 2014 is motivating investors to take on risk,» said Kathy Lien, managing director of FX Strategy at BK Asset Management.
Although a simple comparison of the unemployment rate in both countries would clearly highlight the faster pace of
US labor market recovery, our view is that this fails to consider how significantly more volatile the US labor market has been.
The causes of this shift include the foreclosure crisis, a
slow labor market recovery from the Great Recession, tighter mortgage credit, limited supply of entry - level homes and long - term social changes such as delayed marriage and childbearing.
If we look at the recovery since the Great Recession, we see slow growth globally, a very slow
labor market recovery in the US, and a stock market that's being led by record stock - buybacks by the giant companies, not exactly the signs of a healthy productivity cycle.
The labor market recovery so far has made up less than half of the prime - age employment lost in the recession.
But B&R argue that adherence to a rigid, simple equation would undermine the Fed's discretion at crucial economic moments: «Following the Great Recession, for example, the original form of the Taylor rule would have directed the Fed to raise interest rates above zero in 2011, years before
the labor market recovery was near completion, which would have slowed the recovery even further.»
Indeed, there are some signs that meaningful wage growth, one of the factors that had been missing from
this labor market recovery, may be on the horizon.
From February 2010, when
the labor market recovery began, through January 2018, employment in South Carolina grew by 19 percent compared to the national rate of 14 percent.
This labor market recovery appears all the more impressive when it's considered in the context of structurally lower economic growth due to population aging trends, as well as the technological disruptions being experienced by many industries.
In order to accurately track the progress of
the labor market recovery, The Hamilton Project developed a measure of labor market health — the «jobs gap» — that reflects changes in both the level and the demographic composition of the U.S. population (more details regarding the jobs gap methodology are provided in appendix A).
«It is very clear that those states with higher levels of payroll employment or
labor market recovery are associated with healthier housing markets.»
Although certainly an improvement from the depressed levels of 2009, until 1)
the labor market recovery gains any serious traction, 2) lending standards are less stringent and 3) the glut of distressed properties is worked off, gains in homebuilding activity will remain modest.
Since the recession
the labor market recovery has been modest with a December unemployment rate of 6.7 percent, high by historical standards but moving down.