This growth slowdown reflects both declining
labour force growth as baby boomers retire in large numbers and a reduced pace of aggregate productivity growth.
In the long run both types of investment create capital that can yield substantial positive rates of return (above the current 30 and 50 year real bond rate) and result in both higher productivity and stronger
labour force growth.
So if there are policies that would boost potential output — the sum of
labour force growth and productivity growth — then we need to pursue them.
The disappointing performance of business investment to date could reflect more sustained structural factors, such as slowing
labour force growth, low productivity growth and regulatory obstacles.
For example, faster
labour force growth will encourage firms to invest not only to meet greater demand but also to equip these additional workers with machines and other capital to raise their productivity.5 The rate of technological progress is also a key factor, since a faster pace of innovation raises the return on each additional unit of capital, stimulating firms to invest more.
Population aging under way across most advanced economies has led to a marked slowdown in
labour force growth, and this has been a strong headwind to investment.
Canada faces a deep long - term fiscal challenge, as its population ages and
its labour force growth slows, states a new report from the C.D. Howe Institute.
The budget does not even provide a projection of Canada's long - term potential economic growth and the key determinants underlying it - productivity growth and
labour force growth.
Most economists expect potential economic growth to decline from about 3 per cent annually to about 2 per cent over the next ten years, as a result of continued poor productivity growth and a slowing
labour force growth as the population ages.
There was no discussion of how an ageing population will affect
labour force growth, or productivity growth.
Not exact matches
The Great Stagnation: In «Why the global economy may be doomed to lower
growth — maybe forever,» Simone Foxman gives four reasons why economic
growth may be much slower in the future: scarce resources, an aging
labour force, stagnant technology
growth and externalities from climate change.
With over 90 % of the
labour force in the informal economy, it is very difficult to assess the impact of policy actions and measure true
growth.
Inflation is also running close to its ideal target and wage
growth has strengthened with a tightening
labour force.
We do not know the increase in the
growth of federally regulated workers that make less than $ 15, but given what we know from the
Labour Force Survey, federally regulated workplace study and employment equity survey data, estimates of 0.25 - 0.75 % annual
growth appear reasonable.
For wage
growth, the bank said despite recent improvements it remains below what would be expected if the economy no longer had slack in its
labour force.
To the extent it has risen, moreover, it is because of
growth in the
labour force, not declining employment: the economy added 158,000 jobs last year.
Given current demographic trends, Canada like many developed economies, is facing the challenge of ensuring future economic
growth while its domestic
labour force ages and its...
Right now, new Canadians make up about 70 per cent of the
growth in the Canadian
labour force.
Productivity
growth, combined with
growth in the
labour force, determines how fast activity can expand without stoking inflation pressures — something we call potential output
growth.1
It's true that demographic
forces are leading to slower
growth in the
labour force, which reduces the neutral interest rate in the economy and increases the chances that monetary policy will be constrained by the lower bound on interest rates.
In turn, this decline is being driven primarily by the aging of our population, which is slowing the rate of
growth of the
labour force.
Therefore, demographic
forces that affect the
growth of the
labour force will also affect the demand for capital.
In Canada and the United States, for example, the annual
growth rate of the
labour force slowed from around 1 1/4 per cent in 2006 to less than 1/2 per cent in 2016.11 This decline has reduced potential output
growth and investment demand.
Surveys of businesses» hiring intentions are at high levels, and print - based vacancy measures have been growing in line with the above - average
growth in the
labour force.
These improvements were reflected in the rise in the participation rate to 63 %, up 0.6 % since September, confirming there is greater slack in the
labour force than conveyed by the headline unemployment rate, and suggesting that longer term unemployed or discouraged workers who have hitherto remained on the sidelines are being pulled back into the
labour market by the
growth in employment opportunities.
In contrast, in recent months employment
growth has been noticeably stronger and more people have entered the
labour force.
To some extent, recent trends in employment
growth have been made more difficult to interpret by volatility resulting from changes to the
Labour Force Survey.
Considering that Canadian MSMEs represent the vast majority of businesses in Canada, employing more than 7.5 million Canadians — about 70 per cent of Canada's private sector
labour force — it becomes clear how critically important they are to the
growth of the Canadian economy.
Employment
growth during the past year has been only moderate, and remains less than trend
labour -
force growth.
In IT, despite very strong
growth in IT services, our productivity in this sector is lagging the US due to underinvestment and shortages of skilled people, but attracting a skilled
labour force plays into our strengths.
In Japan for example, by 2030 the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research estimates the
labour force will have contracted by over 15 percentvi, threatening GDP
growth and placing a high burden on those in work to provide benefits for a growing number of retirees.
«The reality is the
labour force is slowing down, due to demographics, and this slows the pace of income
growth,» he says.