The changing capital intensity of the economy explains some of the differences in
labour productivity growth between business cycles.
Labour productivity growth was boosted in the 1970s cycle by rising capital intensity, but held back somewhat in the 1980s cycle as growth in hours worked outstripped growth in the capital stock.
For the past three business cycles, an appropriate comparison is between average
labour productivity growth for the 5 1/2 years after each trough in output (the current expansion has run for 5 1/2 years since the trough in output in June 1991).
Part of the differences in
labour productivity growth between business cycles reflects differences in the rate of capital accumulation and employment growth.
Labour productivity growth — the rate of growth of output per hour worked — is also a useful concept since
labour productivity growth ultimately determines the sustainable rate of growth of real wages in the economy.
Labour productivity growth tends to follow the business cycle, rising as activity strengthens and falling as it weakens.
However, measured
labour productivity growth has improved over the past few years across a broader range of industries, following a period of quite weak growth (Graph 3).
But part of the adjustment occurred via a pick - up in the pace of wage growth, at a time when
labour productivity growth was relatively slow.
There are three very important labour market releases out this morning: both Canada and the U.S. published their November employment numbers, and Statistics Canada also released
the labour productivity growth figures for the July - September period.
And the third is that the rate of
labour productivity growth in the production of services is lower than that in the production of goods.
Not exact matches
Raise interest rates in the U.S. and you could kill the recovery and exacerbate the problem of long - term unemployment, with lasting effects of
labour productivity, economic
growth and, yes, even government revenues.
In a presentation to the Canadian Association for Business Economics in August, Industry Canada economist Annette Ryan reiterated the familiar
productivity lament: beginning in the 1980s,
growth in Canadian
labour productivity, defined as GDP per hour worked, has been steadily declining and now trails the U.S. and the majority of other G7 countries.
Technology Change Not the Culprit in Wages Falling Behind U.S.
Productivity Gains (Naked Capitalism) Since 1973, there has been divergence between
labour productivity and the typical worker's pay in the U.S. as
productivity has continued to grow strongly and
growth in average compensation has slowed substantially.
More than 40 years ago, the Magna founder decided his company would experience higher
productivity and less
labour strife — and, as a result, faster
growth — if its workers got some of the financial benefits of strong performance.
I don't know what was happening to Canadian
productivity before 1973, but even if there was no
growth in output per worker, the increase in our
labour terms of trade would have induced significant gains in real wages.
The slowing in 2015 results from a further decline in the
growth of trend
labour input coupled with no change in the
growth rate of trend
labour productivity.
Potential output
growth can be thought of as the sum of the
growth rates of trend
labour input and trend
labour productivity.
There was no discussion of how an ageing population will affect
labour force
growth, or
productivity growth.
Most economists expect potential economic
growth to decline from about 3 per cent annually to about 2 per cent over the next ten years, as a result of continued poor
productivity growth and a slowing
labour force
growth as the population ages.
The budget does not even provide a projection of Canada's long - term potential economic
growth and the key determinants underlying it -
productivity growth and
labour force
growth.
For example, faster
labour force
growth will encourage firms to invest not only to meet greater demand but also to equip these additional workers with machines and other capital to raise their
productivity.5 The rate of technological progress is also a key factor, since a faster pace of innovation raises the return on each additional unit of capital, stimulating firms to invest more.
The disappointing performance of business investment to date could reflect more sustained structural factors, such as slowing
labour force
growth, low
productivity growth and regulatory obstacles.
So if there are policies that would boost potential output — the sum of
labour force
growth and
productivity growth — then we need to pursue them.
However,
productivity growth surged causing unit
labour costs to plummet (before also flatenning out).
Strong
growth in
productivity may continue to restrain
growth in unit
labour costs to a greater extent than expected, though
productivity growth in the past year has been below that in the preceding few years.
Strong
productivity growth, combined with moderating wage
growth and ample spare capacity in the economy, led to unit
labour costs falling by 1.7 per cent over the year to the December quarter.
In the long run both types of investment create capital that can yield substantial positive rates of return (above the current 30 and 50 year real bond rate) and result in both higher
productivity and stronger
labour force
growth.
Last month, Statistics Canada reported that the
labour productivity rate
growth contracted 0.2 per cent in 2015, by far its weakest result in three years.
Skilled
labour gaps must be closed to reduce the current constraints on
growth and
productivity.
Policies that spur more efficient corporate restructuring can revive
productivity growth by targeting three inter-related sources of
labour productivity weakness: the survival of «zombie» firms (low
productivity firms that would typically exit in a competitive market), capital misallocation and stalling technological diffusion... As the zombie firm problem may partly stem from bank forbearance, complementary reforms to insolvency regimes are essential to ensure that a more aggressive policy to resolve non-performing loans is effective.
This
growth slowdown reflects both declining
labour force
growth as baby boomers retire in large numbers and a reduced pace of aggregate
productivity growth.
Core inflation has drifted higher over the past year, as slowing
productivity growth has pushed up
growth in unit
labour costs, albeit from a very low level.
Growth in non-farm GDP per hour worked — a broad measure of
labour productivity — has averaged 1.8 per cent per annum since the start of the recovery, a higher rate than in the corresponding phase of the previous cycle, but slightly lower than in the 1970s cycle.
The profits recovery has been driven by continued strong
productivity growth in conjunction with subdued compensation
growth (due to the weak
labour market), which has seen unit
labour costs fall by 5 per cent since June 2001 — the largest fall on record (Graph A4).
Faster average wage
growth in Australia has been accompanied by trend
growth in
labour productivity which is faster than the average of the countries shown in the table.
It appears that the extensive changes in the economy over the past decade — including a structural fall in the inflation rate,
productivity - enhancing changes in the
labour market, corporatisation and privatisation of public - sector enterprises and substantial falls in the barriers to international trade — have led to an improvement in Australia's underlying rate of
productivity growth.
To further contextualize Canada's serious issue with its
productivity growth, a report put out by the Council of Canadian Academies states that since 1984, the relative
labour productivity in the Canadian business sector dropped from more than 90 % of the US level to 76 % in 2007, putting the country 15th out of 18 comparative Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.
In IT, despite very strong
growth in IT services, our
productivity in this sector is lagging the US due to underinvestment and shortages of skilled people, but attracting a skilled
labour force plays into our strengths.
Infrastructure spending can be particularly effective if it raises trend
labour productivity, since it can help raise potential
growth and ease pressures on the neutral rate.24
The part that is left over — that is, the part of economic
growth that can not be explained by the accumulation of capital and
labour inputs — is what economists call multifactor
productivity (MFP), an index that is widely interpreted as a measure of technical progress.
British workers are producing 12.8 % less than if the pre-recession
growth in
labour productivity had continued past 2008.
Invest in
growth to drive
productivity, strengthen urban
labour markets, build more and better housing and improve infrastructure in and between cities.
Labour's manifesto was light on detail in many areas, but it was serious about investing in research,
productivity and
growth.
A
Labour government will drive forward the economic and industrial policy that Ed Miliband, Ed Balls and Chuka Umunna have been developing to create more high quality jobs in every region of the country by reforming our banking sector, modernising our infrastructure, and working with businesses to get the long - term investment we need in growing SMEs and the high
productivity,
growth industries of the future.
Aging baby boomers are leaving the workforce, which puts downward pressure on the nation's
labour market, which in turn lowers
productivity growth, limits the economy and suppresses inflation.
While surviving the declined
labour productivity in the last two quarters, the first quarter statistics revealed a modest but hopeful increase by 0.3 % for Canadian businesses, with a decrease in costs by 1.8 %, attributed in some way to the slight, but slowed
growth in hourly compensation.