Yes, generalising across Antractica is difficult but it's more than that - it's foolish to claim that you know what
land based temperatures are when there's no observations there.
Ground based temperature outside the US is much less covered, and much of
all land based temperature (including US) possibly error laden.
Whether this increase in instantaneous heat production shows up in near surface
land based temperature measuring data sets or not, I don't know.
I am one of those people who are very sceptical of
the land based temperature record.
Not exact matches
The satellite -
based record of
land surface maximum
temperatures, scientists have found, provides a sensitive global thermometer that links bulk shifts in maximum
temperatures with ecosystem change and human well - being.
The authors also found that surface
temperatures in the Arctic are more sensitive to the amount of sea ice than to the amount of
land -
based ice.
They estimated that
land - use changes in the continental United States since the 1960s have resulted in a rise in the mean surface
temperature of 0.25 degree Fahrenheit, a figure Kalnay says «is at least twice as high as previous estimates
based on urbanization alone.»
The P - 3 Orion,
based at NASA's Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia, will carry IceBridge's most comprehensive instrument suite: a scanning laser altimeter that measures surface elevation, three types of radar systems to study ice layers and the bedrock underneath the ice sheet, a high - resolution camera to create color maps of polar ice, and infrared cameras to measure surface
temperatures of sea and
land ice.
Smith, T.M. and R.W. Reynolds, 2005: A global merged
land air and sea surface
temperature reconstruction
based on historical observations (1880 - 1997), J. Clim., 18, 2021 - 2036.
A number of recent studies indicate that effects of urbanisation and
land use change on the
land -
based temperature record are negligible (0.006 ºC per decade) as far as hemispheric - and continental - scale averages are concerned because the very real but local effects are avoided or accounted for in the data sets used.
I used was the surface
temperature responses from histAll --(histGHG + histNatural) to obtain the response to aerosols + ozone +
land - use and derive the enhancement of the response for that case relative to WMGHGs that I called E. Calculation of TCR
based on histAll in a model is approximately the same as calculating the sum of responses to histGHG, histNat, and histInhomogeneous where the latter includes the factor E.
And finally, current theories
based on greenhouse gas increases, changes in solar, volcanic, ozone,
land use and aerosol forcing do a pretty good job of explaining the
temperature changes over the 20th Century.
They wrote that their comparisons of sea - level pressures, sea - surface
temperatures and
land -
based air
temperatures provided «consistent evidence for strong» regulation of
temperatures by changes in ocean cycles «from monthly to century time scales.»
The climate in most places has undergone minor changes over the past 200 years, and the
land -
based surface
temperature record of the past 100 years exhibits warming trends in many places.
Recent
temperature measurements over the past 165 + years
based on satellite, marine and
land instruments obtained and analyzed by HadCrut, GISS, and Berkeley indicate global
temperatures have increased by approximately 1 degree C shown on Figure 7.
You could take the (incorrect) prescription
based on the bucket confusion, apply it to the full global
temperatures (
land included, hmm...) and think that this merits a discussion on whether the whole IPCC edifice had been completely undermined (Answer: no).
Second, as Gavin pointed out, the
land - ocean
temperature index tends to underestimate the truth because it's
based on sea surface
temperature rather than air
temperature, while the meteorological - station index
temperature tends to overestimate the truth because
land warms faster than ocean.
Land -
based ice in glaciers and ice - sheets will keep contributing to sea level rise as long as melting exceeds snowfall accumulation; stopping the growth of
temperature would not stop the net melting.
How to avoid problems with most
land -
based temperature weather stations: Use lighthouses as thermometers for accurate and unbiased measurement of surface air
temperature.
An important point is that the
temperature difference between lower latitudes and the Arctic (at least for
land based) is smaller now than in the 1930 - 1940's.
The AARI data include drifting stations and ice information, although not the majority (my fault to see that as «main»), that means that the difference between only
land based and total is in warmer sea surface
temperatures.
«The average global
temperature anomaly for combined
land and ocean surfaces for July (
based on preliminary data) was 1.1 degrees F (0.6 degrees C) above the 1880 - 2004 long - term mean.
If one takes the MBH98 / 99 reconstruction as
base, the variation in the pre-industrial period was ~ 0.2 K, of which less than 0.1 K (in average) from volcanic eruptions, the rest mostly from solar (I doubt that
land use changes had much influence on global
temperatures).
I went ahead and plotted the normalized (HadCRU + GISS) / 2 --(RSS + UAH) / 2 to show the variance between satellite and
land -
based temperatures.
So, in looking at the chart, I note that the orange line (HadISST) is
based on sea - surface
temperature observations, while the three other lines are (various GISS - E2 - R runs) are
land - and - sea model outputs.
The evidence is «equivocal» because it does not agree with limited
land based observation of cloud — something that may be a little shortsighted as these changes seem significantly to be associated with sea surface
temperature in the tropics and the influences of the northern and southern annular modes.
«Global surface
temperature trends,
based on
land and marine data, show warming of about 0.8 deg C over the last 100 years.
Since many meteorological stations are located in or near large cities, these «urban heat islands» might introduce a spurious trend into
temperature records.3 This is the most serious possible source of systematic error to have been identified in
land -
based data.
Since the TAR, the observational
basis of analyses of extremes has increased substantially, so that some extremes have now been examined over most
land areas (e.g., daily
temperature and rainfall extremes).
4 Contribution to SLR Melting
land base ice Thermal expansion of water due to increase in the
temperature.
Kevin Cowtan appears to have discovered that «modeled» «surface»
temperature isn't comparable to the «observed» «surface»
temperature since the «observed» is a combination of
land based (Tmax + Tmin) / 2 and SST measured somewhere between the surface and a few meters below the surface.
But I think that the various anomaly time series with a common time
base and the absolute
temperature added back into the respective anomaly time series, would clearly expose the denier BIG LIE since it has become quite obvious that the satellite and
land surface datasets, while interesting to compare (given we only see anomaly time series comparisons) are in fact measuring two entirely different sets of
temperatures (surface vs a few KM above the surface).
One must remember that prior to the endless adjustments to the
land based thermometer record, both Phil Jones in 1980 and Hansen in 1981 accepted that the Northern hemisphere
temperatures as at 1980 were some 0.3 to 0.4 degC cooler than they were in 1940.
The most likely explanation being that the
land based thermometer record has become inaccurate due to station drop out, particularly high latitude drop out, a biasing towards airport stations, poor station siting and a failure to properly allow for UHI which is having an ever increasing impact upon post 1960s
temperatures because of not simply an increase in urbanisation but also the drop out of rural stations and the ever increasing percentage of airport stations and airports have so greatly changed during the 1970s and 1980s.
There are no
temperature data available in most of the
land area on Earth, and so those in charge of the instrumental record just in - fill their guesses (
based on computer models) of what they think the
temperatures might be.
The most likely explanation being that teh
land based thermometer record has become inaccurate due to station drop out, particularly high latitude drop out, a biasing towards airport stations, poor station siting and a failure to properly allow for UHI which is having an ever increasing impact upon post 1960s
temperatures because of not simply an increase in urbanisation but also the drop out of rural stations and the ever increasing percentage of airport stations and airports have so greatly changed during the 1970s and 1980s.
The evidence is that the LOD effect impacts the SST much more strongly than the
land -
based temperature data.
Overall of course, we do see higher
temperature anomalies over
land on a historical
basis, owing to the huge modulation role that the ocean plays in the storage of excess energy and the higher humidity levels over the ocean.
What makes it seem feasible is the fact that the
land -
based temperature curves referred to have angled up the standstill in the eighties and nineties so it looks like a continuation of the rise in the seventies.
While this is wrong, it is made feasible by the fact that the
land -
based temperature curves referred to all have angled up the standstill segment so it looks like a continuation of the rise in the seventies.
Surface warming: «Global
temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls» «Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4
temperature series and its impact on recent
temperature trends» «Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend» «On the definition and identifiability of the alleged «hiatus» in global warming» «Global
land - surface air
temperature change
based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset»
Figure 1 Alley's reconstruction is
based upon trapped air in ice cores taken from central Greenland and his proxies are calibrated to air
temperatures on
land.
Indeed, last week we learned from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that the first eight months of 2015 were the hottest such stretch yet recorded for the globe's surface
land and oceans,
based on
temperature records going back to 1880.
MM04 failed to acknowledge other independent data supporting the instrumental thermometer -
based land surface
temperature observations, such as satellite - derived
temperature trend estimates over
land areas in the Northern Hemisphere (Intergovernmental Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Third Assessment Report, Chapter 2, Box 2.1, p. 106) that can not conceivably be subject to the non-climatic sources of bias considered by them.
Other GMST series
based on
land temperature stations and sea surface
temperatures from ships and buoys are now available and are regularly updated, such as those from the Japanese Meteorological Agency and Berkeley Earth.
However, this parameterization is
based on an extremely simple linear combination, using only CO2 and no other anthropogenic factors and considering only
land temperature changes.
As others have noted, the IPCC Team has gone absolutely feral about Salby's research and the most recent paper by Dr Roy Spencer, at the University of Alabama (On the Misdiagnosis of Surface
Temperature Feedbacks from Variations in Earth's Radiant Energy Balance), for one simple reason: both are
based on empirical, undoctored satellite observations, which, depending on the measure required, now extend into the past by up to 32 years, i.e. long enough to begin evaluating real climate trends; whereas much of the Team's science in AR4 (2007) is
based on primitive climate models generated from primitive and potentially unreliable
land measurements and proxies, which have been «filtered» to achieve certain artificial realities (There are other more scathing descriptions of this process I won't use).
This includes maintaining Argo, the main system for monitoring ocean heat content, and the development of Deep Argo to monitor the lower half of the ocean; the use of ship -
based subsurface ocean
temperature monitoring programs; advancements in robotic technologies such as autonomous underwater vehicles to monitor waters adjacent to
land (like islands or coastal regions); and further development of real - or near - real - time deep ocean remote sensing methods.
Satellite records of
temperature do not show the same
temperature increase as
land based sensors.
To survive the extreme
temperatures, both marine and
land -
based plants and animals have started to migrate towards the poles.