The time series
land based thermometer records are hopeless (not simply because of question adjustments and homogenisation, and instrument error bounds) but also because that throughout the time series the stations used with which the data is being compiled, at any one moment of time, is continually changing, so too their spatial coverage, such that at no time is like with like ever comparable.
Thus even if the satellite data showed say nearly 0.1 degC warming between 1979 to about 1996/7 (which is not statistically significant) then one would expect to see less than this amount of warming in
the land based thermometer record if the warming is due to the GHE.
The most likely explanation being that
teh land based thermometer record has become inaccurate due to station drop out, particularly high latitude drop out, a biasing towards airport stations, poor station siting and a failure to properly allow for UHI which is having an ever increasing impact upon post 1960s temperatures because of not simply an increase in urbanisation but also the drop out of rural stations and the ever increasing percentage of airport stations and airports have so greatly changed during the 1970s and 1980s.
The most likely explanation being that
the land based thermometer record has become inaccurate due to station drop out, particularly high latitude drop out, a biasing towards airport stations, poor station siting and a failure to properly allow for UHI which is having an ever increasing impact upon post 1960s temperatures because of not simply an increase in urbanisation but also the drop out of rural stations and the ever increasing percentage of airport stations and airports have so greatly changed during the 1970s and 1980s.
thus if the adjusted
land based thermometer record was showing more than about 0.07 degC of warming between 1979 to 1996 there is a problem with the adjustments.
One must remember that prior to the endless adjustments to
the land based thermometer record, both Phil Jones in 1980 and Hansen in 1981 accepted that the Northern hemisphere temperatures as at 1980 were some 0.3 to 0.4 degC cooler than they were in 1940.
Mann had discovered that the relentless adjustments made to
the land based thermometer record had caused that record to diverge from reality, and he had identified a need to re-examine
the land based thermometer record and to consider the accuracy and efficacy of the numerous adjustments made to the record between 1980 and 1997 that had caused
the land based thermometer record to diverge.
He would then have seen that the problem was caused by the manner in which
the land based thermometer record had been adjusted throughout the 1980s and 1990s.
If the sample set were to remain true and the same throughout the time series, then it would be possible to have an anomaly across that data set, but that is not what is or has happened with the time series
land based thermometer data set.
Not exact matches
The satellite -
based record of
land surface maximum temperatures, scientists have found, provides a sensitive global
thermometer that links bulk shifts in maximum temperatures with ecosystem change and human well - being.
There should be far less short term variation and none of the problems associated with the locations of
land -
based thermometers.
How to avoid problems with most
land -
based temperature weather stations: Use lighthouses as
thermometers for accurate and unbiased measurement of surface air temperature.
By focusing on
thermometer -
based land observations only, and ignoring other evidence conflicting with their hypothesis, MM04 failed to address basic flaws in their arguments.
MM04 failed to acknowledge other independent data supporting the instrumental
thermometer -
based land surface temperature observations, such as satellite - derived temperature trend estimates over
land areas in the Northern Hemisphere (Intergovernmental Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Third Assessment Report, Chapter 2, Box 2.1, p. 106) that can not conceivably be subject to the non-climatic sources of bias considered by them.
The
thermometer network is made up of a patchwork of non-research quality instruments that were never made to monitor long - term temperature changes to tenths or hundredths of a degree... Furthermore,
land -
based thermometers are placed where people live, and people build stuff, often replacing cooling vegetation with manmade structures that cause an artificial warming (urban heat island, UHI) effect right around the
thermometer.
And then, there was a study showing the «tarmac effect» of
land -
based data in France where only
thermometers at airports — in the winter — showed any warming over the last 50 years.
Estimates of temperature variations near the earth's surface are
based on
thermometer readings taken daily at thousands of
land stations and on board thousands of ships.
We need to bear in mind that generally
land based records were being taken twice a day by people who had been trained (especially in the early days) They used science grade
thermometers.
As the article states, this may be due to CO2 etc (AGW) or it may be other warming around the
land -
based thermometers.
NASA's «GISS» temp uses
land and ocean -
based thermometers which measure «different parts of the system [UHI affected parking lots, asphalt heat sinks, AC exhaust air vents], different signal to noise ratio [we bias toward warm stations], different structural uncertainty [we «homogenise» our data set to cool the past and warm the present to fit the global warming narrative].»
If new techniques endorsed by the World Meteorological Organisation are applied to official figures, over half of the global warming reported by US
land -
based thermometers between 1979 and 2008 simply disappears, researchers have found.
In truth, even if Christmas does bring warmth, it won't matter a whit, and not because the true measurements —
based on comprehensive satellite readings rather than from a scattering of
thermometers on
land and ocean buoys — show 2014 to be nowhere near setting records.
These include measurements taken from
land -
based temperature stations (mostly using mercury
thermometers), ocean buoys, ships, satellites, and weather balloons.
Furthermore,
land -
based thermometers are placed where people live, and people build stuff, often replacing cooling vegetation with manmade structures that cause an artificial warming (urban heat island, UHI) effect right around the
thermometer.