Without land data, the trend would be slightly shallower, but not much, and so we can ask, whether it is justified to average in
the land data trend globally, given uncertainties about UHI effects and other variables.
Not exact matches
Is «Big
Data» the latest vaporous marketing
trend that'll wash across the
land, leaving little of substance behind?
The
data would be accessible to all, allowing scientists to assemble a continental - scale picture of climate change,
land - use
trends, and the movement of invasive species.
The team analysed evidence such as
land use,
land suitability and agricultural biomass
data to create a robust model that compares different scenarios for 2050, including scenarios based on maintaining current
trends.
While national
data for environmental performance is limited and difficult to quantify, the research team were able to plot investment in two key agri - environment schemes,
land «retirement» for conservation and limiting fertiliser use, against national
trends for farmland bird populations and emissions from synthetic fertiliser across landmasses including the US, Canada, Australia and Europe.
With a view of decreasing the reporting burden, Parties will receive templates prepopulated with default
data on the three biophysical indicators (namely
trends in
land cover,
trends in
land productivity, and
trends in carbon stocks above and below ground) and associated metrics.
Measurement problems, including uneven sampling, missing
data and local
land - use changes, make interpretation of these
trends difficult.
The
land records contain artifacts due to things like urbanization or tree growth around station locations, buildings or air conditioners being installed near stations, etc., but laborious
data screening, correction procedures, and a-posteriori tests have convinced nearly all researchers that the reported
land warming
trend must be largely correct.
«In the global [
land and ocean] temperature anomaly
data series of 1880 to 2010, the
trend presented an increase of 0.6 oC per Century.
The first 50 years (my longer term model was based on GISS
land station
data) had something like a 0.15 C upward
trend due to increased solar activity, compared to a ~ 0.10 C anthropogenic contribution.
For those not familiar with it, the purpose of Berkeley Earth was to create a new, independent compilation and assessment of global
land surface temperature
trends using new statistical methods and a wider range of source
data.
Our work indicates that analysis of global
land temperature
trends is robust to a range of station selections and to the use of adjusted or unadjusted
data.
From what I see from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) of
land temperatures and the Comprehensive Ocean - Atmosphere
Data Set (COADS) of SST data, temperatures there were higher around the 1930's than now, and there is not much long term warming trend, except for the past few ye
Data Set (COADS) of SST
data, temperatures there were higher around the 1930's than now, and there is not much long term warming trend, except for the past few ye
data, temperatures there were higher around the 1930's than now, and there is not much long term warming
trend, except for the past few years.
The
data analysis in this paper mainly concerned the
trends over
land, thus a key assumption for this study appears to rest solely on a personal communication from an economics professor purporting to be the results from the GISS coupled climate model.
As Gavin points out, the Tropics are mainly ocean so it is the ocean
data, not the
land surface
data that mainly determine the
trend we are talking about there.
Global
land surface temperature
data (green) with linear
trends applied to the time frames 1973 to 1980, 1980 to 1988, 1988 to 1995, 1995 to 2001, 1998 to 2005, 2002 to 2010 (blue), and 1973 to 2010 (red).
If you do the same for 31 year averages, 32 year averages, 33 year averages, etc., on on through at least 70 year averages, you continue to find an indisputable
trend of climate warming — even if you dismiss the
land data as flawed because of the use of daily extremes rather than a more robust indication of the daily mean.
«Global surface temperature
trends, based on
land and marine
data, show warming of about 0.8 deg C over the last 100 years.
Since many meteorological stations are located in or near large cities, these «urban heat islands» might introduce a spurious
trend into temperature records.3 This is the most serious possible source of systematic error to have been identified in
land - based
data.
These issues, which are either not recognized at all in the assessments or are understated, include: - the identification of a warm bias in nighttime minimum temperatures - poor siting of the instrumentation to measure temperatures - the influence of
trends in surface air water vapor content on temperature
trends - the quantification of uncertainties in the homogenization of surface temperature
data, and the influence of
land use /
land cover change on surface temperature
trends.
US
land - only temperature doesn't have a markedly different
trend than global satellite
data.
MM04 failed to acknowledge other independent
data supporting the instrumental thermometer - based
land surface temperature observations, such as satellite - derived temperature
trend estimates over
land areas in the Northern Hemisphere (Intergovernmental Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Third Assessment Report, Chapter 2, Box 2.1, p. 106) that can not conceivably be subject to the non-climatic sources of bias considered by them.
Overall, based on 13 yr of
data, a relatively contrasting pattern in
trends appears to have emerged in the tropics / subtropics largely modulated by dust emissions and transport processes encompassing the Saharan arid
lands and the Arabian Peninsula and their downwind oceanic regions, with downward and upward tendencies, respectively.
If you draw the «
trend» between 1880 and 1980 (pretending you have no
data after that) for the global
land index post cut off you will see no warming during that period.
The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for
land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration
data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario
trends.
However, even looking at the ocean
data, we can see that the long term
trend has * increased * since 1997 as with the global and
land trend.
Because of the poor quality of
data in general and the obligatory smearing of the nether regions, the much lower average temperature / energy is of the highest northern latitudes and
land areas above 30N have their own erratic warming
trend.
Figure 1: Short - term cooling
trends from Jan»70 to Nov» 77, Nov»77 to Nov» 86, Sep»87 to Nov» 96, Mar»97 to Oct» 02, and Oct»02 to Dec»11 (blue) vs. the 42 - year warming
trend (Jan»70 to Dec» 11; red) using NOAA NCDC
land - ocean
data.
Figure 1: BEST
land - only surface temperature
data (green) with linear
trends applied to the timeframes 1973 to 1980, 1980 to 1988, 1988 to 1995, 1995 to 2001, 1998 to 2005, 2002 to 2010 (blue), and 1973 to 2010 (red).
But unlike the
land surface, the atmosphere has shown no warming
trend, either over
land or over ocean — according to satellites and independent
data from weather balloons.
Concentration in 2008 from Pieter Tans, «
Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide — Mauna Loa,» NOAA / ESRL, at www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/
trends, viewed 7 April 2009; R. A. Houghton, «Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from
Land - Use Changes: 1850 — 2005,» in Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center,
TRENDS: A Compendium of
Data on Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2008); Josep G. Canadell et al., «Contributions to Accelerating Atmospheric CO2 Growth from Economic Activity, Carbon Intensity, and Efficiency of Natural Sinks,» Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol.
The question seems not to be whether or not urbanization causes warming (pretty obvious, based on all the
data out there) but whether or not the UHI distortion has represented a significant part of the recorded
land surface warming since the record started in 1850 and whether or not this has significantly distorted the globally averaged
trend.
«Causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates» «Comparing tropospheric warming in climate models and satellite
data» «Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended
land air and ocean sea surface temperatures» «Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature
trends» «Reconciling warming
trends» «Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled» «Reconciling controversies about the «global warming hiatus»»
-- Brandt et al., 2017 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-017-0081 Here we used a passive microwave Earth observation
data set to document two different
trends in
land area with woody cover for 1992 — 2011: 36 % of the
land area (6,870,000 km2) had an increase in woody cover largely in drylands, and 11 % had a decrease (2,150,000 km2), mostly in humid zones.
I want to point out that all of the surface
data sets over
land suffer from i) a systematic warm bias associated with using minimum temperatures in the construction of
trends and I) in blending non-spatially representative sites with good sites.
Figure 2: Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST)
land - only surface temperature
data (green) with linear
trends applied to the timeframes 1973 to 1980, 1980 to 1988, 1988 to 1995, 1995 to 2001, 1998 to 2005, 2002 to 2010 (blue), and 1973 to 2010 (red).
These adjustments, however they are made, tend to slightly increase the warming
trends of global
land temperatures compared to the raw
data.
Visit the
data page and scroll to the bottom under the «Globe» column to get the latest decadal
trend — also listed are
trends for each hemisphere,
land, ocean, poles, tropics etc..
We conclude that the most valid model of the spatial pattern of
trends in
land surface temperature records over 1979 — 2002 requires a combination of the processes represented in some GCMs and certain socioeconomic measures that capture
data quality variations and changes to the
land surface.
The difference in
trend between global SST and global
land air temperature since 1976 does not appear to be significant, but the
trend in NMAT (despite any residual
data problems) does appear to be less than that in the
land air temperature since 1976.
Given all these considerations, I would suggest that
land data, although important particularly for regional forecasts, has rather little relevance to global
trends.
I don't mean to step on Michael Tobis» toes, but the level of CO2 has always so far as the various ice core and like
data strongly suggest (above 99.5 % with consilience) been seasonally variable over
land due to interaction of plants and temperature as proven by NH / SH
trends, just as it is diurnally variable due to photosynthesis.
Here, the sea ice
data are used to illuminate how the
trends in sea ice concentration relate spatially and temporally to the
trends in
land temperatures.
See, the first thing to do is do determine what the temperature
trend during the recent thermometer period (1850 — 2011) actually is, and what patterns or
trends represent «
data» in those
trends (what the earth's temperature / climate really was during this period), and what represents random «noise» (day - to - day, year - to - random changes in the «weather» that do NOT represent «climate change»), and what represents experimental error in the plots (UHI increases in the temperatures, thermometer loss and loss of USSR
data, «metadata» «M» (minus) records getting skipped that inflate winter temperatures, differences in sea records from different measuring techniques, sea records vice
land records, extrapolated
land records over hundreds of km, surface temperature errors from lousy stations and lousy maintenance of surface records and stations, false and malicious time - of - observation bias changes in the information.)
If someone can help me see the supposed
trend in US
land temperature without putting all the
data through a huge meat grinder (after 20 years of working with
data I don't trust meat grinders), I would be grateful.
Watts contends that if the global
data were properly adjusted for urbanization and station siting, and
land use change issues were addressed, what would emerge is a cyclical pattern of rises and falls with much less of any background
trend.
Even the satellite
data of the tropospheric temperature has almost the same
trend as the
land surface
data.
The same should be true for climate change we should evaluate the changes in temperature (not anomalies) over time at the same stations and present the
data as a spaghetti graph showing any differing
trends and not assume that regional or climates in gridded areas are the same — which they are not as is obvious from the climate zones that exist or microclimates due to changes in precipitation,
land use etc..
«[U] nlike the
land surface, the atmosphere has shown no warming
trend, either over
land or over ocean — according to satellites and independent
data from weather balloons.»
Weak negative correlations were found between the mean annual NCEP RH and cirrus over oceans, but again, most of the
data over oceans are in the air traffic corridors where contrail formation and raw aircraft emissions could affect the cirrus
trends more than over
land because of greater susceptibility in the more pristine marine air.