These lines were labelled «All SRES envelope including
land ice uncertainty» in the TAR SPM and extended the range up to 88 cm, adding 18 cm at the top end.
Not exact matches
I further discount the 0.04 W / m ^ 2 (atmosphere and
land and melted sea
ice and
land ice) mentioned in your research article as relatively minor given known
uncertainties.
We contended here before that this is a bit of a leap, since there are other constraints on climate sensitivity (such as the last
ice age) and other sources of
uncertainty (solar, ozone,
land use, etc.).
During recent years (1993 — 2003), for which the observing system is much better, thermal expansion and melting of
land ice each account for about half of the observed sea level rise, although there is some
uncertainty in the estimates.
The rate of 3mm / year is also roughly equivalent to the SLR budget from
land ice melt and thermal expansion, though admittedly there is a lot of
uncertainty specially about Antarctica.
There Is No
Uncertainty Monster Multiple redundant surveys show plainly that global
ice volume - on -
land is decreasing without pause or obvious limit.
However the model structure, assumptions, and data assimilation methods, whatever their
uncertainties and differences, are better than extrapolation or kriging over long distances or across
land / sea /
ice boundaries.
Inevitably there is great
uncertainty, but the less influence you ascribe to thermal expansion the more
land based
ice you have to find to explain the rising sea level.
The inconclusive results stem from
uncertainties in the model about how quickly the
ice will slide over
land and into the ocean, Payne says.
These partially offsetting effects lead to the expectation that direct human shifts in water storage on
land will not have large effects on sea level in comparison to the effects of ocean warming and mountain - glacier and
ice - sheet melting (Wada et al., 2012), although notable
uncertainties remain in regards to future groundwater use and reservoir construction, and these effects vary considerably depending on the specific location (NRC, 2012e).
Predictions of sea
ice changes will have large
uncertainties without sustained observations; improved understanding of
ice, ocean,
land, and atmospheric processes; and advances in coupled and system models.
There are of course
uncertainties in the estimation methods but independent data from multiple measurement techniques (explained here) all show the same thing, Antarctica is losing
land ice as a whole, and these losses are accelerating quickly.