«The Folland and Parker bias estimates have been shown to compare well to coastal land temperature stations and used to drive atmosphere only GCMs that have reproduced
the land temperature variations over large areas of the world».
The Folland and Parker bias estimates have been shown to compare well to coastal land temperature stations and used to drive atmosphere only GCMs that have reproduced
the land temperature variations over large areas of the world (See Folland et al. 2005 for more details, copy here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3/references.html).
Not exact matches
Discussions on whether
temperature or water availability is driving the strength of these
variations in the
land carbon sink have been highly contested with these year - to - year changes of the carbon balance seemingly related to global or tropical
temperatures.
Lembongan is a pristine tropical island, its highest point is 50 meters above sea level, little
temperature variation from 30 degrees Celsius occurs between the only two seasons in a total of 615 ha unproductive rocky
land.
In their paper Decadal
Variations in the Global Atmospheric
Land Temperatures, they find that the largest contributor to global average
temperature variability on short (2 - 5 year) timescales in not the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)(as everyone else believes), but is actually the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).
There will be Regionally / locally and temporal
variations; increased
temperature and backradiation tend to reduce the diurnal
temperature cycle on
land, though regional
variations in cloud feedbacks and water vapor could cause some regions to have the opposite effect; changes in surface moisture and humidity also changes the amount of convective cooling that can occur for the same
temperature distribution.
If one takes the MBH98 / 99 reconstruction as base, the
variation in the pre-industrial period was ~ 0.2 K, of which less than 0.1 K (in average) from volcanic eruptions, the rest mostly from solar (I doubt that
land use changes had much influence on global
temperatures).
After accounting for volcanic and human effects, the residual variability in
land - surface
temperature is observed to closely mirror (and for slower changes slightly lead)
variations in the Gulf Stream.
As others have noted, the IPCC Team has gone absolutely feral about Salby's research and the most recent paper by Dr Roy Spencer, at the University of Alabama (On the Misdiagnosis of Surface
Temperature Feedbacks from
Variations in Earth's Radiant Energy Balance), for one simple reason: both are based on empirical, undoctored satellite observations, which, depending on the measure required, now extend into the past by up to 32 years, i.e. long enough to begin evaluating real climate trends; whereas much of the Team's science in AR4 (2007) is based on primitive climate models generated from primitive and potentially unreliable
land measurements and proxies, which have been «filtered» to achieve certain artificial realities (There are other more scathing descriptions of this process I won't use).
This factor, when multiplied times the amount of reduction in tropospheric aerosol emissions, between 1975 and another later year will give the average global
temperature for that year (per NASA's J - D
land - ocean
temperature index values) to within less than a tenth of a degree C. of actuality (when temporary natural
variations due to El Nino's, La Nina's, and volcanic eruptions are accounted for).
In conclusion, our analysis suggests that strong interannual and decadal
variations observed in the average
land surface
temperature records represent a true climate phenomenon, not only during the years when fluctuations on the timescale of 2 - 15 years had been previously identified with El Nino events.
However, over long time periods, the
variation of the global average
temperature with CO2 concentration depends on various factors such as the placement of the continents on Earth, the functionality of ocean currents, the past history of the climate, the orientation of the Earth's orbit relative to the Sun, the luminosity of the Sun, the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere, volcanic action,
land clearing, biological evolution, etc..
The natural
variation that has led us out of the Little Ice Age has a bit of frosting on the cake by
land use; and, part of that
land use has resulted in a change in vegetation and soil CO2 loss so that we see a rise in CO2 and the CO2 continues to rise without a
temperature accompaniment (piano player went to take a leak), as the
land use has all but gobbled up most of the arable
land North of 30N and we are starting to see low till farming and some soil conservation just beginning when the soil will again take up the CO2, and the GMO's will increase yields, then CO2 will start coming down on its own and we can go to bed listening to Ave Maria to address another global crisis to get the populous all scared begging governments to tell us much ado about... nothing.
Our non-linear model of the
land air
temperature (T)-- driven by the measured Arosa total ozone (TOZ)-- explains 75 % of total variability of Earth's T
variations during the period 1926 — 2011.
The impact of these changes in cloud cover can account for the
variations in HadCRUT4 global average
temperature anomalies and the divergence between
land and sea
temperatures.
The
variation over time of the hydrological variables and
temperature are shown below for averages over
land areas for NW, NE, SW and SE Europe.
Dr. Curry Paper on decadal
variation: We find that the strongest cross-correlation of the decadal fluctuations in
land surface
temperature is not with ENSO but with the AMO
Estimates of
temperature variations near the earth's surface are based on thermometer readings taken daily at thousands of
land stations and on board thousands of ships.
The authors» analyses suggest that contributions of urbanization and local
land use / cover changes to the all - Nepal record are minimal and that the all - Nepal record provides an accurate record of
temperature variations across the entire region.
If it were possible to switch off the radiative properties of the atmosphere the
land surface would suffer far more dramatic diurnal
temperature variations but the troposphere would heat dramatically.
There is much greater
temperature variation on
land than in the ocean, and a much greater
variation on
land which is distant from the ocean compared to the
variation on
land close to it.
The ability to approximate an average field for one period is not the same as tuning to all possible
variations of SST and
land temperature so I don't think your argument holds.
We conclude that the most valid model of the spatial pattern of trends in
land surface
temperature records over 1979 — 2002 requires a combination of the processes represented in some GCMs and certain socioeconomic measures that capture data quality
variations and changes to the
land surface.
Unresolved issues that will be addressed in a series of forthcoming studies include the effects of ocean dynamics on the predictability of low - frequency atmosphere and
land variability and the feedback of soil moisture
variations on atmospheric
temperatures and circulation (e.g., Rowntree and Bolton 1983; Atlas et al. 1993; Koster et al. 2000).
E.g. anthroprogenic fossil fuel combustion and solar / cosmic ray
variation / earth precession impacting insolation and clouds and consequently
land and ocean circulation and
temperature driving and
temperature dependent microbial decay driving CO2 emissions, and CO2 /
temperature driven biomass growth?
As a result,
temperature variations on
land are greater than on water.
The title of the paper is «Decadal
variations in the global atmospheric
land temperatures».
4) Decadal
Variations in the Global Atmospheric
Land Temperatures Richard A. Muller1, 2,3, Judith Curry4, Donald Groom2, Robert Jacobsen1, 2, Saul Perlmutter1, 2, Robert Rohde3, Arthur Rosenfeld1, 2, Charlotte Wickham5, Jonathan Wurtele1, 2
There have been numerous research papers and reviews published over the past 10 years, including several in prestigious journals such as Nature and Science, that conclude that the observed
temperature changes over the past 100 years are consistent with the combined changes in atmospheric aerosols (volcanic and anthropogenic),
land surface changes,
variations in solar irradiance and increases in greenhouse gases.
Here, we present an explanation for time - invariant
land — sea warming ratio that applies if three conditions on radiative forcing are met: first, spatial
variations in the climate forcing must be sufficiently small that the lower free troposphere warms evenly over
land and ocean; second, the
temperature response must not be large enough to change the global circulation to zeroth order; third, the
temperature response must not be large enough to modify the boundary layer amplification mechanisms that contribute to making φ exceed unity.
As noted in my earlier reply, the annual
variations in monthly global
land surface
temperatures are 4 times higher than those of TLT.
No other contingency — e.g. potential
variations in global
temperature sensitivity to CO2, solar output,
land use — were considered.
the annual
variations in monthly global
land surface
temperatures are 4 times higher than those of TLT.
They used several simple indices, including the
land - ocean contrast, the meridional gradient, and the magnitude of the seasonal cycle, to describe global climate
variations and showed that for natural
variations, they contain information independent of the global mean
temperature.