In the 1990s, he proposed a theory to explain how slight changes in solar activity could cause
large changes in global temperature.
«That's
a larger change in global temperature than what's likely to occur over the next century, but it happened over 18 million years,» Diffenbaugh said.
Not exact matches
Russ Corsi, who worked nearly 32 years for Pittsburgh - based PPG, a
global supplier of auto glass, says
larger sunroofs are also more prone to weakening over time as the pane absorbs impacts from bumps
in the road, twists and turns of the car's frame, and «thermal shock» — the expanding and contracting from sudden
temperature changes.
«This emphasizes the importance of
large - scale energy transport and atmospheric circulation
changes in restoring Earth's
global temperature equilibrium after a natural, unforced warming event,» Li said.
«This underscores that
large, sustained
changes in global temperature like those observed over the last century require drivers such as increased greenhouse gas concentrations,» said lead author Patrick Brown, a PhD student at Duke's Nicholas School of the Environment.
Fact # 1: Carbon Dioxide is a Heat - Trapping Gas Fact # 2: We Are Adding More Carbon Dioxide to the Atmosphere All the Time Fact # 3:
Temperatures are Rising Fact # 4: Sea Level is Rising Fact # 5: Climate
Change Can be Natural, but What's Happening Now Can't be Explained by Natural Forces Fact # 6: The Terms «
Global Warming» and «Climate
Change» Are Almost Interchangeable Fact # 7: We Can Already See The Effects of Climate
Change Fact # 8:
Large Regions of The World Are Seeing a Significant Increase
In Extreme Weather Events, Including Torrential Rainstorms, Heat Waves And Droughts Fact # 9: Frost and Snowstorms Will Still Happen in a Warmer World Fact # 10: Global Warming is a Long - Term Trend; It Doesn't Mean Next Year Will Always Be Warmer Than This Ye
In Extreme Weather Events, Including Torrential Rainstorms, Heat Waves And Droughts Fact # 9: Frost and Snowstorms Will Still Happen
in a Warmer World Fact # 10: Global Warming is a Long - Term Trend; It Doesn't Mean Next Year Will Always Be Warmer Than This Ye
in a Warmer World Fact # 10:
Global Warming is a Long - Term Trend; It Doesn't Mean Next Year Will Always Be Warmer Than This Year
A shifting mean (as
in warming
global temperatures) leads to
large changes at the extremes.
While the local, seasonal climate forcing by the Milankovitch cycles is
large (of the order 30 W / m2), the net forcing provided by Milankovitch is close to zero
in the
global mean, requiring other radiative terms (like albedo or greenhouse gas anomalies) to force
global - mean
temperature change.
At the hemispheric - mean scale, the «Little Ice Age» is only a moderate cooling because
larger offsetting regional patterns of
temperature change (both warm and cold) tend to cancel
in a hemispheric or
global mean.
Thus, small
changes of
global average air
temperature are associated with very
large changes in some regions, particularly over land, at mid - to high latitudes,
in mountain regions.
Global climate change risks are high to very high with global mean temperature increase of 4 °C or more above preindustrial levels in all reasons for concern (Assessment Box SPM.1), and include severe and widespread impacts on unique and threatened systems, substantial species extinction, large risks to global and regional food security, and the combination of high temperature and humidity compromising normal human activities, including growing food or working outdoors in some areas for parts of the year (high confid
Global climate
change risks are high to very high with
global mean temperature increase of 4 °C or more above preindustrial levels in all reasons for concern (Assessment Box SPM.1), and include severe and widespread impacts on unique and threatened systems, substantial species extinction, large risks to global and regional food security, and the combination of high temperature and humidity compromising normal human activities, including growing food or working outdoors in some areas for parts of the year (high confid
global mean
temperature increase of 4 °C or more above preindustrial levels
in all reasons for concern (Assessment Box SPM.1), and include severe and widespread impacts on unique and threatened systems, substantial species extinction,
large risks to
global and regional food security, and the combination of high temperature and humidity compromising normal human activities, including growing food or working outdoors in some areas for parts of the year (high confid
global and regional food security, and the combination of high
temperature and humidity compromising normal human activities, including growing food or working outdoors
in some areas for parts of the year (high confidence).
What has
changed the
global temperature significantly is man's addition of CO2 to the atmosphere — although the absolute quantities are small, the relative
change in CO2 is
large, and the effects are important.
For example, if this contribution were to grow linearly with
global average
temperature change, the upper ranges of sea level rise for SRES scenarios shown
in Table SPM - 3 would increase by 0.1 m to 0.2 m.
Larger values can not be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise.
But it does say; «Natural climate variations, which tend to involve localized
changes in sea surface
temperature, may have a
larger effect on hurricane activity than the more uniform patterns of
global warming...»
Many of the
large year - to - year
changes in global temperatures are removed when we subtract the scaled NINO3.4 data from the GISS Global (60S - 60N) LOTI
global temperatures are removed when we subtract the scaled NINO3.4 data from the GISS
Global (60S - 60N) LOTI
Global (60S - 60N) LOTI data.
These differ from the glacial - interglacial cycles
in that they probably do not involve
large changes in global mean
temperature:
changes are not synchronous
in Greenland and Antarctica, and they are
in the opposite direction
in the South and North Atlantic.
The melting of the Arctic ice will bring about
changes that go way beyond the disastrous weather events we are seeing (and are clear to anyone looking down here
in the South Pacific) but will lead to immediate increases
in global temperatures which will make the
large - scale growing of grain crops impossible.
Note: The step
change (
temperature drop) at 1945 has been identified as an error in a recent Thompson et al letter to «Nature» with the title «A Large Discontinuity in the Mid-Twentieth Century in Observed Global - Mean Surface Temperat
temperature drop) at 1945 has been identified as an error
in a recent Thompson et al letter to «Nature» with the title «A
Large Discontinuity
in the Mid-Twentieth Century
in Observed
Global - Mean Surface
TemperatureTemperature».
SkyPower, the world's
largest developer and owner of utility - scale solar energy projects, is proud to announce its landmark partnership agreement with COP21, the UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change, which delegations representing over 150 countries will attend
in Paris for 12 days with the objective of reaching a universal agreement on how to slow the rise of
global temperatures.
Model projections for precipitation
changes are less certain than those for
temperature.12, 2 Under a higher emissions scenario (A2),
global climate models (GCMs) project average winter and spring precipitation by late this century (2071 - 2099) to increase 10 % to 20 % relative to 1971 - 2000, while
changes in summer and fall are not expected to be
larger than natural variations.
Add to that the period between 2000 - 2014 with little or no
change in global estimated
temperatures, despite a
large increase
in atmospheric C02.
While
changes in solar output have slightly increased
global average
temperature since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the planet - warming effect of man - made greenhouse gases is about 20 times
larger -LRB-
The man talks gibberish when he invokes ``... our interpretation of the
larger role of unforced variability
in temperature change of the past decade» and then shows his ignorance of El Nino when he claims that ``...
global temperature will rise significantly
in the next few years as the tropics moves inevitably to the next El Nino phase.»
Moreover, our interpretation of the
larger role of unforced variability
in temperature change of the past decade suggests that
global temperature will rise significantly
in the next few years as the tropics moves inevitably to the next El Nino phase.
This may seem like a small number compared to
changes in daily
temperature however to put it into comparison how small
global temperature changes can have a
large effect, if the Earth's surface
temperature was lowered by 5 ⁰ C it would be
in a full ice age.
Current computer models can faithfully simulate many of the important aspects of the
global climate system, such as
changes in global average
temperature over many decades; the march of the seasons on
large spatial scales; and how the climate responds to
large - scale forcing, like a
large volcanic eruption.
The NAO's prominent upward trend from the 1950s to the 1990s caused
large regional
changes in air
temperature, precipitation, wind and storminess, with accompanying impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and contributed to the accelerated rise
in global mean surface
temperature (e.g., Hurrell 1996; Ottersen et al. 2001; Thompson et al. 2000; Visbeck et al. 2003; Stenseth et al. 2003).
The use of even more recently computer - reconstructed total solar irradiance data (whatever have
large uncertainties) for the period prior to 1976 would not
change any of the conclusions
in my paper, where quantitative analyses were emphasized on the influences of humans and the Sun on
global surface
temperature after 1970 when direct measurements became available.
To point out just a couple of things: — oceans warming slower (or cooling slower) than lands on long - time trends is absolutely normal, because water is more difficult both to warm or to cool (I mean, we require both a bigger heat flow and more time); at the contrary, I see as a non-sense theory (made by some serrist, but don't know who) that oceans are storing up heat, and that suddenly they will release such heat as a positive feedback: or the water warms than no heat can be considered ad «stored» (we have no phase
change inside oceans, so no latent heat) or oceans begin to release heat but
in the same time they have to cool (because they are losing heat); so, I don't feel strange that
in last years land
temperatures for some series (NCDC and GISS) can be heating up while oceans are slightly cooling, but I feel strange that they are heating up so much to reverse
global trend from slightly negative / stable to slightly positive; but,
in the end, all this is not an evidence that lands» warming is led by UHI (but, this effect, I would not exclude it from having a small part
in temperature trends for some regional area, but just small); both because, as writtend, it is normal to have waters warming slower than lands, and because lands»
temperatures are often measured
in a not so precise way (despite they continue to give us a
global uncertainity
in TT values which is barely the instrumental's one)-- but, to point out, HadCRU and MSU of last years (I mean always 2002 - 2006) follow much better waters»
temperatures trend; — metropolis and
larger cities
temperature trends actually show an increase
in UHI effect, but I think the sites are few, and the covered area is very small worldwide, so the
global effect is very poor (but it still can be sensible for regional effects); but I would not run out a small warming trend for airport measurements due mainly to three things: increasing jet planes traffic, enlarging airports (then more buildings and more asphalt — if you follow motor sports, or simply live
in a town / city, you will know how easy they get very warmer than air during day, and how much it can slow night - time cooling) and overall having airports nearer to cities (if not becoming an area inside the city after some decade of hurban growth, e.g. Milan - Linate); — I found no point about UHI
in towns and villages; you will tell me they are not
large cities; but,
in comparison with 20-40-60 years ago when they were «countryside», many small towns and villages have become part of
larger hurban areas (at least
in Europe and Asia) so examining just
larger cities would not be enough
in my opinion to get a full view of UHI effect (still remembering that it has a small
global effect: we can say many matters are due to UHI instead of GW, maybe even that a small part of measured GW is due to UHI, and that GW measurements are not so precise to make us able to make good analisyses and predictions, but not that GW is due to UHI).
«
In summary, given the lack of observational robustness of minimum temperatures, the fact that the shallow nocturnal boundary layer does not reflect the heat content of the deeper atmosphere, and problems global models have in replicating nocturnal boundary layers, it is suggested that measures of large - scale climate change should only use maximum temperature trends.&raqu
In summary, given the lack of observational robustness of minimum
temperatures, the fact that the shallow nocturnal boundary layer does not reflect the heat content of the deeper atmosphere, and problems
global models have
in replicating nocturnal boundary layers, it is suggested that measures of large - scale climate change should only use maximum temperature trends.&raqu
in replicating nocturnal boundary layers, it is suggested that measures of
large - scale climate
change should only use maximum
temperature trends.»
The problem is that small
changes in global average
temperature can lead to really
large changes in the environment.
Had Hansen used a climate model with a climate sensitivity of approximately 3.4 °C for 2xCO2 (at least
in the short - term, it's likely
larger in the long - term due to slow - acting feedbacks), he would have projected the ensuing rate of
global surface
temperature change accurately.
Although documented
changes in global surface
temperatures during the Holocene and Common era are relatively small, the concomitant
changes in OHC are
large.»
Table 1 shows the resulting contributions to the
global surface
temperature changes which are illustrated graphically
in Figure 1 [Note: click on Table 1 for a
larger version].
Large temperature spikes like the current
global warming would have shown up
in the proxy record as
changes in the type of plants growing
in the mid latitudes as is seen with the northward shift of the growing regions at present.
In their paper, McLean et al. found that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a
large influence on
global temperature variability (i.e. short - term
changes), but they also slipped a conclusion into their paper which was not supported by their research:
Projected
changes for the 21st century over land and
in mid and high latitudes will be
larger than the projected
change in the
global average
temperature, so again, past experience will provide little guidance for the future.
Based on an extensive literature review, we suggest that (1) climate warming occurs with great uncertainty
in the magnitude of the
temperature increase; (2) both human activities and natural forces contribute to climate
change, but their relative contributions are difficult to quantify; and (3) the dominant role of the increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (including CO2) in the global warming claimed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is questioned by the scientific communities because of large uncertainties in the mechanisms of natural factors and anthropogenic activities and in the sources of the increased atmospheric CO2 concentr
change, but their relative contributions are difficult to quantify; and (3) the dominant role of the increase
in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (including CO2)
in the
global warming claimed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) is questioned by the scientific communities because of large uncertainties in the mechanisms of natural factors and anthropogenic activities and in the sources of the increased atmospheric CO2 concentr
Change (IPCC) is questioned by the scientific communities because of
large uncertainties
in the mechanisms of natural factors and anthropogenic activities and
in the sources of the increased atmospheric CO2 concentration.
For the increase of 5 % which parameter produces the
largest change in mean
global temperature?
http://www.agci.org/docs/lean.pdf «
Global (and regional) surface
temperature fluctuations
in the past 120 years reflect, as
in the space era, a combination of solar, volcanic, ENSO, and anthropogenic influences, with relative contributions shown
in Figure 6.22 The adopted solar brightness
changes in this scenario are based on a solar surface flux transport model; although long - term
changes are «50 %
larger than the 11 - year irradiance cycle, they are significantly smaller than the original estimates based on variations
in Sun - like stars and geomagnetic activity.
In general, the pattern of change in return values for 20 - year extreme temperature events from an equilibrium simulation for doubled CO2 with a global atmospheric model coupled to a non-dynamic slab ocean shows moderate increases over oceans and larger increases over land masses (Zwiers and Kharin, 1998; Figure 9.29
In general, the pattern of
change in return values for 20 - year extreme temperature events from an equilibrium simulation for doubled CO2 with a global atmospheric model coupled to a non-dynamic slab ocean shows moderate increases over oceans and larger increases over land masses (Zwiers and Kharin, 1998; Figure 9.29
in return values for 20 - year extreme
temperature events from an equilibrium simulation for doubled CO2 with a
global atmospheric model coupled to a non-dynamic slab ocean shows moderate increases over oceans and
larger increases over land masses (Zwiers and Kharin, 1998; Figure 9.29).
Gavin (correctly) points out that if a relatively small
temperature change of the past century caused the observed 115 ppm
change in CO2 concentration, then much
larger changes in past
global temperature (e.g., glacial / interglacial
temperature changes) ought to have caused swings
in CO2 of 500-1000 ppm.
Altogether, the empirical data support a high sensitivity of the sea level to
global temperature change, and they provide strong evidence against the seeming lethargy and
large hysteresis effects that occur
in at least some ice sheet models.
«Working with data pertaining to 7450 cardiovascular - related deaths that occurred within Budapest, Hungary, between 1995 and 2004 — where the deceased were «medico - legally autopsied» — Toro et al. looked for potential relationships between daily maximum, minimum and mean
temperature, air humidity, air pressure, wind speed,
global radiation and daily numbers of the heart - related deaths... scientists report and restate their primary finding numerous times throughout their paper, writing that (1) «both the maximum and the minimum daily
temperatures tend to be lower when more death cases occur
in a day,» (2) «on the days with four or more death cases, the daily maximum and minimum
temperatures tend to be lower than on days without any cardiovascular death events,» (3) «the
largest frequency of cardiovascular death cases was detected
in cold and cooling weather conditions,» (4) «we found a significant negative relationship between
temperature and cardiovascular mortality,» (5) «the analysis of 6 - hour
change of air pressure suggests that more acute or chronic vascular death cases occur during increasing air pressure conditions (implying cold weather fronts),» (6) «we found a high frequency of cardiovascular death
in cold weather,» (7) «a significant negative relationship was detected between daily maximum [and] minimum
temperature [s] and the number of sudden cardiovascular death cases,» and (8) «a significant negative correlation was detected between daily mean
temperature and cardiovascular mortality.»
They think that the only way for
global - average
temperatures to
change is for the climate system to be forced «externally»... by a
change in the output of the sun, or by a
large volcanic eruption.
This is obviously a very
large step -
change, remembering that the entire
temperature increase associated with
global warming over the 20th century is generally considered to be
in the order of 0.9 °C.
Here, we present an explanation for time - invariant land — sea warming ratio that applies if three conditions on radiative forcing are met: first, spatial variations
in the climate forcing must be sufficiently small that the lower free troposphere warms evenly over land and ocean; second, the
temperature response must not be
large enough to
change the
global circulation to zeroth order; third, the
temperature response must not be
large enough to modify the boundary layer amplification mechanisms that contribute to making φ exceed unity.
Climate
change in the latter half of the 20th century is detected based upon an increase
in global surface
temperature anomalies that is much
larger than can be explained by natural internal variability.
Fact # 1: Carbon Dioxide is a Heat - Trapping Gas Fact # 2: We Are Adding More Carbon Dioxide to the Atmosphere All the Time Fact # 3:
Temperatures are Rising Fact # 4: Sea Level is Rising Fact # 5: Climate
Change Can be Natural, but What's Happening Now Can't be Explained by Natural Forces Fact # 6: The Terms «
Global Warming» and «Climate
Change» Are Almost Interchangeable Fact # 7: We Can Already See The Effects of Climate
Change Fact # 8:
Large Regions of The World Are Seeing a Significant Increase
In Extreme Weather Events, Including Torrential Rainstorms, Heat Waves And Droughts Fact # 9: Frost and Snowstorms Will Still Happen in a Warmer World Fact # 10: Global Warming is a Long - Term Trend; It Doesn't Mean Next Year Will Always Be Warmer Than This Ye
In Extreme Weather Events, Including Torrential Rainstorms, Heat Waves And Droughts Fact # 9: Frost and Snowstorms Will Still Happen
in a Warmer World Fact # 10: Global Warming is a Long - Term Trend; It Doesn't Mean Next Year Will Always Be Warmer Than This Ye
in a Warmer World Fact # 10:
Global Warming is a Long - Term Trend; It Doesn't Mean Next Year Will Always Be Warmer Than This Year
«Altogether, the empirical data support a high sensitivity of sea level to
global temperature change, and they provide strong evidence against the seeming lethargy and
large hysteresis effects that occur
in at least some ice sheet models.»