The GCM's I know of (and as described by the IPCC 2001) do include
a large cooling effect from aerosols.
This obviously had
a large cooling effect as has been mentioned in earlier articles on this site.
Anthony Watts, president of weather data company Intelliweather Inc. and winner of the American Meteorological Society's Seal of Approval (see note, below), shows that clouds have an extremely
large cooling effect on the world.
R&S 71 was one of the first studies using modeling, and their results found minimal warming effects from CO2 and
large cooling effects from aerosols.
Not exact matches
Large fans, possibly with misting devices attached, and air conditioning are great tools to keep you
cool but nothing beats the chilling
effect of the perfect summer drink recipe.
According to Graf's model, Toba's massive sulphur emissions created
large sulphate particles that were less able to reflect light, reducing the
cooling effect (Geophysical Research Letters, doi.org/cpk3fm).
It remains too soon to tell exactly how this climate system will work under changed conditions and other environmental factors — such as whether the
cooling effect of the soot generated by industry and burning forests outweighs the warming
effect of greenhouse gases — which may play
large roles.
A climate scientist studying the
cooling effects of various environmentally engineered roofing treatments recently led a tour of a
large postal facility's green roof
The valuable
cooling effects of
large urban green spaces has been established; now scientists from Forest Research, the research agency of the Forestry Commission, have studied small and medium sized parks in London to determine the optimum size, distribution and composition of urban green spaces needed to achieve urban
cooling.
The lighter, innermost ring may have been consumed by the sun, leaving behind the ring of metallic material, which had more time to
cool into
larger bodies that resisted the slowing
effect of the gas and dust.
The first, tentative models suggest that extracting
large amounts of energy from high - altitude jet streams would
cool the planet, counteracting the
effects of rising greenhouse gases.
Researchers know that
large amounts of aerosols can significantly
cool the planet; the
effect has been observed after
large volcanic eruptions.
According to Graf's model, the vast sulphur emissions created sulphate particles that grew
large and so reflected less light, reducing the
cooling effect (Geophysical Research Letters, doi.org/cpk3fm).
Emissions of both sulfur and black carbon will go down with the switch, which means that the power industry will lose small short - term
cooling and warming
effects, in addition to gaining the
larger long - term
cooling effect of lower CO2 emissions.
Scientists have long known of the
cooling effect of major volcanic eruptions, which spew
large amounts of light - scattering aerosols into the stratosphere.
Large, densely populated urban areas are highly susceptible to exhausting heat waves exacerbated by the «heat island»
effect in which once permeable,
cooling surfaces like open land, bodies of water and vegetation have been replaced with surfaces that capture and retain heat like asphalt and concrete.
A few years ago, he was trying to get people to take to his idea of how to mitigate global warming by pumping sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, mirroring the
cooling effect caused by
large volcanic eruptions.
It's also now well understood that
large volcanic eruptions have a short - term
cooling effect, see GW FAQ:
effect of volcanic activity (short - term being the key phrase, after Church et al Nature 2005, and also http://www.llnl.gov/str/JulAug02/Santer.html)
Morever,
larger trees transpire, or release, more water into the atmosphere,
cooling the land and supporting cloud formation, which
effects how much solar radiation is reflected back to space and impacts precipitation.
The net
effect of human - generated aerosols is more complicated and regionally variable — for example, in contrast to the local warming
effect of the Asian Brown Cloud, global shipping produces
large amounts of
cooling reflective sulphate aerosols: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/08/990820022710.htm
To study this, the researchers worked with different colonies located in Patagonia, Argentina, and measured the length of both outbound and inbound laden ants, as well as the
effect of experimental wind (generated by computer
coolers in the field) on
larger and smaller ants.
We also note that the modeled response of atmospheric pressure to the
cooling effect of ice melt is
large scale, tending to be of a meridional nature that should be handled by our model resolution.
Be that as it may, all these studies, despite the
large variety in data used, model structure and approach, have one thing in common: without the role of CO2 as a greenhouse gas, i.e. the
cooling effect of the lower glacial CO2 concentration, the ice age climate can not be explained.
As alluded to above, if a
large tropical volcano erupts, it can have a predictable
cooling effect for a year or two.
There might be lots of knock - on
effects, like sturdier engine mounts;
larger charge air
cooler; low temperature
cooling systems; heftier prop shafts... I trust Lotus to know what they're doing.
Its dual tone dashboard is equipped with features like AC vents, a
large glove box with
cooling effect and an advanced instrument panel with lots of functions.
Given the slow rate of temperature changes for
large bodies of water and the tiny hypothetical
effect of a
cooler sun, I doubt that rates of ocean acidification would be affected much, but there would be some
effect.
Research by an international team of scientists recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters says that the
cooling effect of aerosols is so
large that it has masked as much as half of the warming
effect from greenhouse gases.
For instance, increasing cloud cover due to global warming may change the albedo, but this would be a feedback to a
larger warming
effect, rather than a
cooling.
The bottom line is that uncertainties in the physics of aerosol
effects (warming from black carbon,
cooling from sulphates and nitrates, indirect
effects on clouds, indirect
effects on snow and ice albedo) and in the historical distributions, are really
large (as acknowledged above).
But the
cooling effect of aerosols incorporated in current models is much
larger.
As most aerosols, especially sulfate aerosols, are emitted in the NH, the
cooling effect should be
largest there.
Before allowing the temperature to respond, we can consider the forcing at the tropopause (TRPP) and at TOA, both reductions in net upward fluxes (though at TOA, the net upward LW flux is simply the OLR); my point is that even without direct solar heating above the tropopause, the forcing at TOA can be less than the forcing at TRPP (as explained in detail for CO2 in my 348, but in general, it is possible to bring the net upward flux at TRPP toward zero but even with saturation at TOA, the nonzero skin temperature requires some nonzero net upward flux to remain — now it just depends on what the net fluxes were before we made the changes, and whether the proportionality of forcings at TRPP and TOA is similar if the
effect has not approached saturation at TRPP); the forcing at TRPP is the forcing on the surface + troposphere, which they must warm up to balance, while the forcing difference between TOA and TRPP is the forcing on the stratosphere; if the forcing at TRPP is
larger than at TOA, the stratosphere must
cool, reducing outward fluxes from the stratosphere by the same total amount as the difference in forcings between TRPP and TOA.
I would suggest these small aerosols have a
large effect on the saturated adiabatic
cooling and heating cycles and the transport of water vapor latent heat poleward.
It is conceivable that aerosol
effects (which includes «smoke») could also affect the lapse rate, but the aerosols tend to warm where they are located and depending on the composition,
cool below — this gives an impact that — if it was a
large factor in the tropical mean — would produce changes even
larger than predicted from the moist adiabatic theory.
Warming must occur below the tropopause to increase the net LW flux out of the tropopause to balance the tropopause - level forcing; there is some feedback at that point as the stratosphere is «forced» by the fraction of that increase which it absorbs, and a fraction of that is transfered back to the tropopause level — for an optically thick stratosphere that could be significant, but I think it may be minor for the Earth as it is (while CO2 optical thickness of the stratosphere alone is
large near the center of the band, most of the wavelengths in which the stratosphere is not transparent have a more moderate optical thickness on the order of 1 (mainly from stratospheric water vapor; stratospheric ozone makes a contribution over a narrow wavelength band, reaching somewhat
larger optical thickness than stratospheric water vapor)(in the limit of an optically thin stratosphere at most wavelengths where the stratosphere is not transparent, changes in the net flux out of the stratosphere caused by stratospheric warming or
cooling will tend to be evenly split between upward at TOA and downward at the tropopause; with greater optically thickness over a
larger fraction of optically - significant wavelengths, the distribution of warming or
cooling within the stratosphere will affect how such a change is distributed, and it would even be possible for stratospheric adjustment to have opposite
effects on the downward flux at the tropopause and the upward flux at TOA).
As more optical thickness is added to a «new» band, it will gain greater control over the temperature profile, but eventually, the equilibrium for that band will shift towards a cold enough upper atmosphere and warm enough lower atmosphere and surface, such that farther increases will
cool the upper atmosphere or just that portion near TOA while warming the lower atmosphere and surface — until the optical thickness is so
large (relative to other bands) that the band loses influence (except at TOA) and has little farther
effect (except at TOA).
I haven't thought much about the THC although I've expressed doubt about seeing
large regional
cooling if it did shut down or change direction, mainly because global warming is so rapid that any
cooling effect with time would be dampened by warming factors going on.
Thus the 12 year average global
cooling for this type of eruption is 0.05 K. Maybe I have underestimated the long - time
effects of repeated series, but the difference between observed and simulation seems much too
large to me...
In terms of the
cooling effect of clouds, the immediacy of feeling that
effect is due to the blocked incoming radiation from the sun, just as it would be if you stepped beneath a
large shade tree.
CLOUD's genesis is in the mid-1990s, when space physicist Hendrik Svensmark hypothesized that cosmic rays as mediated by solar
effects, play a very
large role on the physics of climate, and could explain the warming and
cooling trends.
3 — Some consideration of low probability,
large effect events, whether this be Hansen's «tipping points» where there is rapid run - away warming, or of «Day After Tomorrow» style
cooling because of slowing of the North Atlantic Conveyor (would shelve the plans to invade Canada, but would necessitate increased protection of your northern border to protect from an influx of Quebecois; — RRB --RRB-.
Interestingly, the paper «Climate Trends and Global food production since 1980» (Lobell, Schlenker, Costa - Roberts, in Sciencexpress, 5 May, Science 1204531) confirms my finding of the absence of climate change in the USA: «A notable exception to the [global] warming pattern is the United States, which produces c. 40 % of global maize and soybean and experienced a slight
cooling over the period... the country with
largest overall share of crop production (United States) showed no [adverse]
effect due to the lack of significant climate trends».
Assuming that this could be done on a
large scale, the result would be a
cooling effect.
In fact, the major
effect of significant volcanic eruptions is
cooling due to the sulfate aerosols that they release (although in order to have a significant
cooling effect, the eruption has to be
large enough that it injects the aerosols into the stratosphere where they can stay around longer... and it apparently helps if the eruption is reasonably near to the equator).
Second, if this is so (and it seems unreasonably
large), why have we never observed this
cooling effect in the regions with high concentrations of manmade aerosols.
It takes a couple of years for most of the aerosols from a
large volcanic eruption to settle out of the air, so their
cooling effect likewise lasts a couple of years.
It could be a relatively cheap, effective and quick way to
cool the planet by mimicking the natural
effects on climate of
large volcanic eruptions, but scientists concede there could be dramatic and dangerous side
effects that they don't know about.
And such significant
cooling would have
larger effect any any possible warming.
1) Due to the short atmospheric lifetime of tropospheric sulfates, if their
cooling effect was so
large we would observe
cooling or, at the very least, less warming over the emitting areas and downwind from them, especially China and some Eastern European regions.