Sentences with phrase «large multidecadal variability»

Because this large multidecadal variability is not random, but likely recurrent based on its past behavior, it has predictive value.

Not exact matches

Nonetheless, even if the substantial recent trend in the AO pattern is simply a product of natural multidecadal variability in North Atlantic climate, it underscores the fact that western and southern Greenland is an extremely poor place to look, from a signal vs. noise point of view, for the large - scale polar amplification signature of anthropogenic surface warming.

Furthermore, since the end of the 19th century, we find an increasing variance in multidecadal hydroclimatic winter and spring, and this coincides with an increase in the multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability, suggesting a significant influence of large - scale atmospheric circulation patterns.

In their paper Decadal Variations in the Global Atmospheric Land Temperatures, they find that the largest contributor to global average temperature variability on short (2 - 5 year) timescales in not the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)(as everyone else believes), but is actually the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

The AWP multidecadal variability coincides with the signal of the AMO; that is, the warm (cool) phases of the AMO are characterized by repeated large (small) AWPs.

Patterns of variability that don't match the predicted fingerprints from the examined drivers (the «residuals») can be large — especially on short - time scales, and look in most cases like the modes of internal variability that we've been used to; ENSO / PDO, the North Atlantic multidecadal oscillation etc..

Nonetheless, even if the substantial recent trend in the AO pattern is simply a product of natural multidecadal variability in North Atlantic climate, it underscores the fact that western and southern Greenland is an extremely poor place to look, from a signal vs. noise point of view, for the large - scale polar amplification signature of anthropogenic surface warming.

In panel - b the magnitude of unforced variability is large (wide range between the blue lines) and thus changes in the multidecadal rate of warming could come about due to unforced variability.

Our results suggest that the decadal AO and multidecadal LFO drive large amplitude natural variability in the Arctic making detection of possible long - term trends induced by greenhouse gas warming most difficult.

The results obtained from the five Coupled Global Climate Model, version 3, (CGCM3)- driven CRCM runs are similar, suggesting that the multidecadal internal variability is not a large source of uncertainty for the Peace River basin.

Multi-decadal oscillations plus trend hypothesis: 20th century climate variability / change is explained by the large multidecadal oscillations (e.g NAO, PDO, AMO) with a superimposed trend of external forcing (AGW warming).

Decadal variability is described via large - scale patterns found in the atmosphere and ocean, which oscillate at decadal timescales and are concentrated in specific regions (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations).

Given that the past 30 — 50 years is a relatively short period for evaluating long - term trends, the SST trends themselves could be viewed as a manifestation of large - scale modes of multidecadal Pacific variability (e.g. Zhang et al. 1997; Deser et al. 2004) or as part of the century scale positive SST trends associated with climate change (e.g. Deser et al. 2010); it is likely that both multidecadal climate variability and climate change have contributed to the SST trend pattern evident in Fig. 9 and used to force the model.

What was done, was to take a large number of models that could not reasonably simulate known patterns of natural behaviour (such as ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), claim that such models nonetheless accurately depicted natural internal climate variability, and use the fact that these models could not replicate the warming episode from the mid seventies through the mid nineties, to argue that forcing was necessary and that the forcing must have been due to man.

Analyses of global climate from measurements dating back to the nineteenth century show an «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» (AMO) as a leading large - scale pattern of multidecadal variability in surface Multidecadal Oscillation» (AMO) as a leading large - scale pattern of multidecadal variability in surface multidecadal variability in surface temperature.

Never mind the fact that those same models were unable to reproduce large scale natural climate variability such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and ENSO.