What is needed to show that models have skill are comparisons to data that is a) well characterised, and b) with
a large signal to noise ratio.
Using global mean temperature, the variability associated with regional variability is averaged out, giving
a larger signal to noise ratio.»
Not exact matches
Let's just say that the
signal -
to -
noise ratio for investors has degraded substantially over the yearsIn spite of the
large increase in investment information relative
to the past, there is little evidence that active managers in aggregate have improved their performance relative
to passive strategies.
However, due
to the
large «
noise»
signals at some local coastal sites, it won't be until later this decade or early next decade before the accelerations in sea level are detection at these individual tide gauge sites.»
Nonetheless, even if the substantial recent trend in the AO pattern is simply a product of natural multidecadal variability in North Atlantic climate, it underscores the fact that western and southern Greenland is an extremely poor place
to look, from a
signal vs.
noise point of view, for the
large - scale polar amplification signature of anthropogenic surface warming.
«We are now finally crossing a threshold where, through very sophisticated modeling of
large combined data sets from multiple independent observers, we can disentangle the
noise due
to stellar surface activity from the very tiny
signals generated by the gravitational tugs from Earth - sized orbiting planets,» study coauthor Steven Vogt, professor of astronomy and astrophysics at UC Santa Cruz, said in a statement.
Overwhelming, with
large amounts of data from disparate sources («It's challenging
to separate the
signal from the
noise»).
11 May 2009 Terry Winters
Signal to Noise at IMMA The first
large - scale exhibition in Ireland by the renowned American artist Terry Winters opens
to the public at the Irish Museum of Modern Art on Friday 12 June 2009.
It's been argued a significant trend is expected under a warming climate, but the
signal -
to -
noise ratio is still too low in most places in Antarctica, even where the warming trend (e.g. WAIS) is quite
large.
My understanding of most of the (lets call it) skeptical positions from people like Roy Spencer is that they essentially claim exactly that: the absence of a
large signal compared
to noise (or natural variability) and the entire debate is essentially about the question, whether
noise is a measurement / statistical problem or the very nature of climate itself?
Of course, on a timescale of one decade the
noise in the temperature
signal from internal variability and measurement uncertainty is quite
large, so this might be hard
to determine, though tamino showed that five year means show a monotonic increase over recent decades, and one might not unreasonably expect this
to cease for a decade in a grand solar minimum scenario.
As for additional topics, perhaps a brief explanation on why confidence in attribution (and prediction) of temperature change is strongest at
large scales and weakest at small scales, ie something about the issue of
signal to noise relative
to spatial scale.
The
large volcanic forcing
signal basically obliterates the far smaller solar forcing
signal, which can not be isolated in the presence of
noise and other forcings from this reconstruction, yielding the spurious apparent negative response
to solar irradiance.
Nonetheless, even if the substantial recent trend in the AO pattern is simply a product of natural multidecadal variability in North Atlantic climate, it underscores the fact that western and southern Greenland is an extremely poor place
to look, from a
signal vs.
noise point of view, for the
large - scale polar amplification signature of anthropogenic surface warming.
Here's his response: «A convincing greenhouse gas - driven change has not emerged in the data so far, in my view, and may well be «in the
noise» due
to both
large natural variability (compared
to the expected size of the greenhouse gas - driven
signal) and data quality issues.»
This issue arises in tree - ring chronology construction too, balancing the inclusion of more data
to reduce the
noise (i.e. the sampling error) against the inclusion of data from too
large an area such that the
signal becomes ambiguous or even incompatible.
Regions showing
large positive correlations between GRACE and ECCO,
large fraction of ECCO variance explained by GRACE, and
large signal -
to -
noise ratios include the northwestern Pacific Ocean, broad areas of the Southern Ocean, the South China Sea and the Arafura Sea.
We conduct a series of
large ensemble simulations (7 experiments at 200 years each)
to increase the
signal -
to -
noise ratio in the stratosphere.
That doesn't mean that there isn't one, but it does mean that the
noise is much
larger than this «
signal», and any attempt
to remove the
signal to extract the
noise presumes a knowledge of the
noise and
signal that a) nobody has; and b)
to the extent that it is input in the form of assumptions, begs all questions and proves nothing.
It requires a much stronger CO2
signal to be statistically certain at 17 years, and perhaps that is what he had in mind, but 0.2 C per decade isn't going
to show up well in 17 years, being only a standard deviation or two
larger than the
noise, which may offset it in some decades.
Dole compared his team's findings
to trying
to hear a quiet conversation underneath the roar of a noisy fan: a summertime
signal due
to climate change over western Russia was drowned out by the much
larger climate «
noise,» or variability, resulting from natural processes.
Even if these adjustments are justifiable, and some like the time of observation adjustment are important, the fact is that the
noise in the measurement is at least as
large as the
signal we are trying
to measure, which should substantially reduce our confidence that we really know what is going on.