We can do this very well from 1992 to 2003, when
large warming occurred, but not from 2004 to 2008.
In «The Early Twentieth - Century Warming in the Arctic — A Possible Mechanism» BENGTSSON 2004, they wrote «
The largest warming occurred in the Arctic (60 — 90N)(Johannessen et al. 2004) averaged for the 1940s with some 1.78 C (2.2 C for the winter half of the year) relative to the 1910s.
«With a high scenario for future greenhouse gas emissions,
the largest warming occurs over the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but all land areas warm dramatically,» remarked Field
Not exact matches
Even though the actual rate of global
warming far exceeds that of any previous episodes in the past 14,000 years,
large changes in global climate have
occurred periodically throughout Earth's history.
They reported in the January 2010 edition of the journal Geophysical Research Letters that global
warming does increase flood risk significantly, and that
large floods have
occurred more frequently in recent years than in the past.
They
occurred over a very short time interval immediately following onset of Cretaceous global
warming, suggesting that the
warming destabilized gas hydrates and released a
large burb of methane.
Even as advances in ancient - DNA technology have made it possible to probe population mixing and
large - scale migrations that
occurred thousands of years ago, researchers have had trouble studying the genetic history of the Near East because the region's
warm climate has degraded much of the DNA in unearthed bones.
Such analyses, while useful, only paint a broad picture of snowfall's response to global
warming, and may miss specific events, like a
large blizzard that may
occur over a day or two.
the
largest annual and seasonal
warmings have
occurred in Alaska, Siberia and the Antarctic Peninsula.
In 2007, the American Physical Society, the country's
largest organization of physicists, adopted a strong statement on climate change that said «The evidence is incontrovertible: Global
warming is
occurring.»
However, as these are areas with
large year - to - year variability, the most evident
warming signal has
occurred in parts of the middle and lower latitudes, particularly the tropical oceans.
Already,
warming temperatures have expanded the range of beetles (Carroll et al. 2006), and the
largest recorded bark beetle epidemic in western forests has
occurred in the past 15 yr.
Carozza et al (2011) find that natural global
warming occurred in 2 stages: First, global
warming of 3 ° to 9 ° C accompanied by a
large bolus of organic carbon released to the atmosphere through the burning of terrestrial biomass (Kurtz et al, 2003) over approximately a 50 - year period; second, a catastrophic release of methane hydrate from sediment, followed by the oxidation of a part of this methane gas in the water column and the escape of the remaining CH4 to the atmosphere over a 50 - year period.
In mid-September, a surge of
warm air caused a spike in surface melting in southern Greenland — one of the
largest spikes to
occur in September since 1978.
Ironically, if the lakes enter the fall with record
warm temperatures, it could herald an above - average season for lake effect snow, which
occurs when cold, dry air blows across
large expanses of comparatively milder waters.
The
large Eemian sea level excursions imply that substantial ice sheet melting
occurred when the world was little
warmer than today.
The team of researchers analyzed data from snow monitoring sites across the West and found declines between 15 to 30 percent with the
largest impacts
occurring in the spring due to
warming temperatures.
Perhaps even more impressive, nine of the 10
largest monthly
warm anomalies in the 125 - year JMA analysis record have
occurred from May 2015 through March 2016.
Jubilee is a natural phenomena that
occurs in Mobile Bay from time to time, usually before dawn on a
warm summer night, when
large numbers of fish, crabs and shrimps swarm close to shore, making themselves easily available to locals who come out with all sorts of containers and scoop them up in quantity.
Unless
large systematic errors can be identified for all data sets, one must conclude that no
warming is
occurring in the troposphere at tropical latitudes.
But tremendous natural variability
occurs in the
large - scale atmospheric circulation during all seasons, and even in summer the links between Arctic
warming and mid-latitude weather are not supported by other observational studies.
(1) Most of the
warming would actually
occur near the surface in areas with shallow cold dry air masses, such as in Siberia and northern Canada where it would not have a
large effect.
The evidence that global
warming is
occurring, and furthermore is due in
large part to human influences (though perhaps other factors also play a role), is much stronger than the evidence I have personally seen that Inhofe exists.
A global
warming phenomenon in our spaceship is one of several unintended effects of the unregulated, swift increase of 1) absolute global human population numbers, 2) per capita consumption of limited resources, and 3)
large - scale business activities that could be
occurring synergistically and approaching a point in history when it will not be possible for the Earth's resource base and frangible ecosystems services to sustain life as we now know it to be.
This is due at least in part to a lack of surface temperature observations in
large parts of the Arctic where
warming is
occurring most rapidly.
The peak upper level
warming that
occurs as optical thickness in a «new» band is increased should be
larger for a wider band, as it can gain greater dominance over controlling the temperature profile at smaller optical thickness and will have a greater peak in it's influence.
Warming must occur below the tropopause to increase the net LW flux out of the tropopause to balance the tropopause - level forcing; there is some feedback at that point as the stratosphere is «forced» by the fraction of that increase which it absorbs, and a fraction of that is transfered back to the tropopause level — for an optically thick stratosphere that could be significant, but I think it may be minor for the Earth as it is (while CO2 optical thickness of the stratosphere alone is large near the center of the band, most of the wavelengths in which the stratosphere is not transparent have a more moderate optical thickness on the order of 1 (mainly from stratospheric water vapor; stratospheric ozone makes a contribution over a narrow wavelength band, reaching somewhat larger optical thickness than stratospheric water vapor)(in the limit of an optically thin stratosphere at most wavelengths where the stratosphere is not transparent, changes in the net flux out of the stratosphere caused by stratospheric warming or cooling will tend to be evenly split between upward at TOA and downward at the tropopause; with greater optically thickness over a larger fraction of optically - significant wavelengths, the distribution of warming or cooling within the stratosphere will affect how such a change is distributed, and it would even be possible for stratospheric adjustment to have opposite effects on the downward flux at the tropopause and the upward flux a
Warming must
occur below the tropopause to increase the net LW flux out of the tropopause to balance the tropopause - level forcing; there is some feedback at that point as the stratosphere is «forced» by the fraction of that increase which it absorbs, and a fraction of that is transfered back to the tropopause level — for an optically thick stratosphere that could be significant, but I think it may be minor for the Earth as it is (while CO2 optical thickness of the stratosphere alone is
large near the center of the band, most of the wavelengths in which the stratosphere is not transparent have a more moderate optical thickness on the order of 1 (mainly from stratospheric water vapor; stratospheric ozone makes a contribution over a narrow wavelength band, reaching somewhat
larger optical thickness than stratospheric water vapor)(in the limit of an optically thin stratosphere at most wavelengths where the stratosphere is not transparent, changes in the net flux out of the stratosphere caused by stratospheric
warming or cooling will tend to be evenly split between upward at TOA and downward at the tropopause; with greater optically thickness over a larger fraction of optically - significant wavelengths, the distribution of warming or cooling within the stratosphere will affect how such a change is distributed, and it would even be possible for stratospheric adjustment to have opposite effects on the downward flux at the tropopause and the upward flux a
warming or cooling will tend to be evenly split between upward at TOA and downward at the tropopause; with greater optically thickness over a
larger fraction of optically - significant wavelengths, the distribution of
warming or cooling within the stratosphere will affect how such a change is distributed, and it would even be possible for stratospheric adjustment to have opposite effects on the downward flux at the tropopause and the upward flux a
warming or cooling within the stratosphere will affect how such a change is distributed, and it would even be possible for stratospheric adjustment to have opposite effects on the downward flux at the tropopause and the upward flux at TOA).
The snow and ice feedback is generally positive and becomes very
large at very cold temperatures; obviously it approaches zero when the temperature is sufficiently
warm that very little snow or ice remain and when they
occur when and where there is little solar radiation to reflect.
Such
large variations of the climate likely won't
occur every year over the next few decades given the limited global
warming to date, but it would seem likely such conditions will
occur more and more frequently as global
warming continues, disrupting both social systems and ecosystems.
Basically you show that if no other effects
occur than solar can not explain the CO2 rise (which is obvious anyway), but if other effects are important (volcanos, GHGs) then your attribution of all the
warming to solar can not be valid and thus the CO2 «portion» you come up with can not possibly be that
large.
The 47,000 wildfires last year may seem like a very
large number — and it certainly gives global
warming alarmists like Brown plenty of fodder for misleading global
warming claims — but the 47,000 wildfires was less than half the average number of wildfires that
occurred each year in the 1960s and 1970s.
However, taking account of sampling uncertainty (as most more recent detection and attribution studies do, including those shown in Figure 9.9) makes relatively little difference to estimates of attributable
warming rates, particularly those due to greenhouse gases; the
largest differences
occur in estimates of upper bounds for small signals, such as the response to solar forcing (Allen and Stott, 2003; Stott et al., 2003a).
Large - scale flooding can also
occur due to extreme precipitation in the absence of snowmelt (for example, Rush Creek and the Root River, Minnesota, in August 2007 and multiple rivers in southern Minnesota in September 2010).84 These
warm - season events are projected to increase in magnitude.
Carozza et al (2011) find that natural global
warming occurred in 2 stages: First, global
warming of 3 ° to 9 ° C accompanied by a
large bolus of organic carbon released to the atmosphere through the burning of terrestrial biomass (Kurtz et al, 2003) over approximately a 50 - year period; second, a catastrophic release of methane hydrate from sediment, followed by the oxidation of a part of this methane gas in the water column and the escape of the remaining CH4 to the atmosphere over a 50 - year period.
The IPCC has not only asserted that global
warming is
occurring, but that to a
large degree it is caused by human activities such as burning fossil fuels rather than being a natural phenomenon.
However, due to the comparatively lower temperature of the
warm water produced (40oC / 55oC dependant on system), they may need to be sized approximately 25 %
larger to compensate for the lower temperature differential, thus allowing convection to
occur at maximum efficiency.
Warmest 12 - month periods 1895 - 2012 NOAA National Climatic Data Center At an even larger scale, note that all the 12 warmest 12 - month periods since 1895 have occurred sinc
Warmest 12 - month periods 1895 - 2012 NOAA National Climatic Data Center At an even
larger scale, note that all the 12
warmest 12 - month periods since 1895 have occurred sinc
warmest 12 - month periods since 1895 have
occurred since 2000.
However, most of today's observed changes are
occurring as a result of anthropogenic
warming due to the
large amount of CO2 that humans have added to the atmosphere.
This
occurs because transportation in North America produces a substantial amount of black carbon (soot) and ozone (a main ingredient in smog), both of which
warm climate, while power generation leads to a
large amount of sulfate particles, which cool climate even as they also lead to acid rain and damage human health.
The
largest warming is not
occurring where the black carbon is, so that's a clue about its effect relative to GHGs and albedo.
Citing the work of Dr. John Christy and Richard McNider at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), which compared climate model projections with temperatures measured independently by satellites and weather balloons, he said «the average
warming predicted to have
occurred since 1979 (when the satellite data starts) is approximately three times
larger than what is being observed.»
Defining the
warmest third by 5 and 6, based on 1951 - 1980, the die are now loaded in such a way that 5 and 6
occur twice as often as they would when unloaded, at least on average when you consider
large numbers of locations together statistically, because some would be less loaded and some more.
The
largest increases year - to - year
occurred when the world
warmed fastest due to El Nino conditions.
Lately, I also had this idea that most
warming was
occurring near of
large bodies of water.
Meehl et al., 2004 found that «By far the
largest temperature response is to the GHGs in Fig. 1e, with slow
warming occurring in the first half of the twentieth century up to about.
The causal case is a cumulative case of: 1) correlation + 2) well - evidenced mechanism (i.e. plausibility) + 3) primacy, where the proposed cause
occurs before the effect + 4) robustness of the correlation under multiple tests / conditions + 5) experimental evidence that adding the cause subsequently results in the effect + 6) exclusion of other likely causes (see point 7 as well) + 7) specificity, where the effect having hallmarks of the cause (ex: the observed tropospheric
warming and stratopsheric cooling, is a hallmark of greenhouse - gas - induced
warming, not
warming from solar forcing) 8) a physical gradient (or a dose - response), where more of the cause produces a
larger effect, or more of the cause is more likely to produce the effect +....
Increased weed and pest pressure associated with longer growing seasons and
warmer winters will be an increasingly important challenge; there are already examples of earlier arrival and increased populations of some insect pests such as corn earworm.64 Furthermore, many of the most aggressive weeds, such as kudzu, benefit more than crop plants from higher atmospheric carbon dioxide, and become more resistant to herbicide control.72 Many weeds respond better than most cash crops to increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, particularly «invasive» weeds with the so - called C3 photosynthetic pathway, and with rapid and expansive growth patterns, including
large allocations of below - ground biomass, such as roots.73 Research also suggests that glyphosate (for example, Roundup), the most widely - used herbicide in the United States, loses its efficacy on weeds grown at the increased carbon dioxide levels likely to
occur in the coming decades.74 To date, all weed / crop competition studies where the photosynthetic pathway is the same for both species favor weed growth over crop growth as carbon dioxide is increased.72
That earlier
warming was associated with a
large calving event of the Pine Island Glacier that likely
occurred in association with an EL Nino event.
Rohan, Also, there is a lot of doubt about exactly how much
warming really has
occurred, so that «step change» may not have been as
large.
Methane hydrates — methane molecules trapped in frozen water molecule cages in tundra and on continental shelves — and organic matter such as peat locked in frozen soils (permafrost) are likely mechanisms in the past hyperthermals, and they provide another climate feedback with the potential to amplify global
warming if
large scale thawing
occurs [209]--[210].