Not exact matches
That information can then be plugged into atmospheric models to calculate
cumulative emissions across
larger areas, says Steve Wofsy, an atmospheric scientist at Harvard who is working on the project.
China has the
largest CO2
emissions today (Fig. 11A), but the global warming effect is closely proportional to
cumulative emissions [190].
But he's gone further, building interactive images that mesh data and graphics in novel ways, including the figure below, which compares the
cumulative emissions of the world's nations,
large and small.
«As a result, ocean waters deeper than 500 meters (about 1,600 feet) have a
large but still unrealized absorption capacity... As
emissions slow in the future, the oceans will continue to absorb excess CO2... into ever - deeper layers... eventually, 50 to 80 percent of CO2
cumulative emissions will likely reside in the oceans»
The way we've been tracking carbon - dioxide
emissions reinforces this remoteness: the annual
emissions we monitor are small relative to the
cumulative emissions that will cause
large temperature increases.
The AEO2015 cases with the
largest differences in
cumulative emissions from the Reference case are two cases that consider higher or lower macroeconomic growth.
Looking at just the 2010 numbers, for example, they show that the United States, with its exceptionally
large share of the global population of people with incomes above the $ 20 per day development threshold (capacity), as well as the world's
largest share of
cumulative emissions since 1990 (responsibility), is the nation with the
largest share (33.1 percent) of the global RCI.
It's no surprise that Mr. Su harped back to the principle of we heard repeatedly from Mr. Su, historical
emissions matter, as the
cumulative emissions of the E.U. and U.S. are much
larger than China's.
This ends up changing estimates of
cumulative carbon
emissions since the pre-industrial period, but given the
large uncertainties involved the authors caution against using these revisions to draw conclusions about remaining carbon budgets associated with staying within the 2C or 1.5 C warming targets.
They both end up getting estimates of transient climate response to
cumulative emissions smaller than what is found in climate models — and a carbon budget that is correspondingly
larger.
In figure 3b, at the upper end of the curve, where
cumulative totals are
large, the existence of an
emissions floor seems to make little difference to the peak temperature.
«The proportionality of warming to
cumulative emissions depends in part on a cancellation of the saturation of carbon sinks with increasing
cumulative emissions (leading to a
larger airborne fraction of
cumulative emissions for higher
emissions) and the logarithmic dependence of radiative forcing on atmospheric CO2 concentration [leading to a smaller increase in radiative forcing per unit increase in atmospheric CO2 at higher CO2 concentrations; Matthews et al. (2009)-RSB-.
If the
cumulative emissions over the duration of the floor are a
large fraction of the
cumulative total, then the level of the floor is a crucial determinant of peak warming.
We also find that, for
large cumulative totals in particular,
cumulative metrics based on integrations over smaller time periods, such as 2010 — 2050, do not correlate with peak warming as well as
cumulative emissions to a given date near the time of peak warming.
This is because the fraction of the
cumulative total that is part of the
emissions curve is much
larger than the fraction that is in the
emissions floor.
Cumulative emissions from 1854 to 2010 traced to historic fossil fuel production by the
largest investor - owned and state - owned oil, gas, and coal producers, in percent of global industrial CO2 and methane
emissions since 1751.