• The reviewer is apparently unaware that
the large measurement uncertainties vitiate attribution and validation, item 5.
Not exact matches
«Given the
uncertainty surrounding the
measurement of economic slack, the true amount may be
larger than estimated, which could slow down the emergence of price pressures,» Draghi told a regular committee hearing.
However, because each of these
measurements must be calibrated to account for natural variation in the environment over time, individual dates have
large amounts of error and
uncertainty, making them difficult to aggregate or interpret in groups.
The
uncertainty in the latest
measurement is 150 parts per million, or 0.015 % — only slightly
larger than that of the conventional method of determining G, which is to quantify the mutual pull of two macroscopic masses.
Over the instrumental period, fractional
uncertainty in the latter is very much
larger than fractional
uncertainty in temperature change
measurements, and is approximately normally distributed.
Of course, on a timescale of one decade the noise in the temperature signal from internal variability and
measurement uncertainty is quite
large, so this might be hard to determine, though tamino showed that five year means show a monotonic increase over recent decades, and one might not unreasonably expect this to cease for a decade in a grand solar minimum scenario.
The selected air - sample
measurements themselves have negligible
uncertainty and are representative of
large areas.
The current state of
measurements is such that these quantities have
large uncertainties.
But there is a potential problem: I don't know how precisely the experimentalists have pegged these values either for current years (when direct
measurements are possible) or in past years (when direct measurments likely weren't done) It may be the
uncertainty bounds from in experiments are rather
large giving modelers quite a bit of leeway.
«In contrast, the difference between, say, the second and sixth warmest years is trivial since the known
uncertainty — or noise — in the temperature
measurement is
larger than some of the differences between the warmest years.»
Cogley (1999) pointed out that with a
measurement network spaced at 50 - 100 m apart the
largest source of
uncertainty is the error in actual point mass balance
measurement (> 0.05 m), and sampling error is negligible.
That means the
uncertainty in temperature
measurements can be
larger than the difference between individual years, which typically comes down to just a few hundredths of a degree.
In the mid 19th century the
largest components of the
uncertainty at annual time scales are the
measurement and sampling
uncertainty and the coverage
uncertainty because there were few observations made by a small global fleet.
If we have inadequate sampling, and short time intervals, the statistical
uncertainties from random fluctuations and random
measurement errors can be
large, but would tend to cancel out as the number of observations and length of time increases.
These
measurements, while subject to some
large uncertainties, also show 2017 as a near - record warm year.
GaryM, «initially collected data with wide ranges of
uncertainty can be processed using statistics to provide a more accurate
measurement on a much
larger scale.»
You claim that initially collected data with wide ranges of
uncertainty can be processed using statistics to provide a more accurate
measurement on a much
larger scale.
As a result the bias
uncertainties are
larger than the
measurement and sampling
uncertainties.
That is, (1) there is dO18
measurement, which I claim should be fairly precise, but you stated has
large uncertainties, and then there is (2) derivation of temperature from dO18 values, where you have indeed pointed out that there could be a number of possibly confounding factors in that analysis if other variables than temperature are not controlled.
My experience in working extensively with temperature
measurements and temperature forecasting leads me to believe that our best estimates of global temperature anomalies based on surface
measurements have a much
larger degree of
uncertainty than has been implied by most users of these estimates.
The use of even more recently computer - reconstructed total solar irradiance data (whatever have
large uncertainties) for the period prior to 1976 would not change any of the conclusions in my paper, where quantitative analyses were emphasized on the influences of humans and the Sun on global surface temperature after 1970 when direct
measurements became available.
For any assumed distribution of parameter values, a method of producing 5 — 95 %
uncertainty ranges can be tested by drawing a
large number of samples of possible parameter values from that distribution, and for each drawing a
measurement at random according to the
measurement uncertainty distribution and estimating a range for the parameter.
You might even argue that the molecular - translational - kinetic - energy difference is so small that Heisenberg's
Uncertainty Principle dictates an extraordinarily large time uncertainty in its m
Uncertainty Principle dictates an extraordinarily
large time
uncertainty in its m
uncertainty in its
measurement.
The
uncertainty of temperature trends calculated from satellites is about five times as
large as the surface temperature
measurements.
This suggests that the
uncertainties in
measurements from these regions are
larger than in other regions, and this will be exacerbated by the high variability.
To date, the airborne in situ
measurements of the cirrus PSD have contained
large uncertainties due to errors in measuring small ice crystals (D ≲ 60 μm).
The SST of the periode mentioned as tuning parameter seems to be much more plausibely than the TOA - imbalance which is not directly observable at all also with the sofisticatest recent technonolgies, see http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0406.1 «
Uncertainties in absolute calibration and the algorithms used to determine Earth's radiation budget from satellite
measurements are too
large to enable Earth's energy imbalance to be quantified in an absolute sense.»
The report also notes that there are
large uncertainties in agricultural water use due to a lack of consistent
measurement and reporting, time lags in information, and confusion about definitions.
This is partly because the interannual to decadal variability is generally
large in these variables, and partly because there are
large uncertainties and sometimes an artificial trend in observations owing to the difficulty in
measurement of these climate variables (Trenberth et al. 2007).
Over the instrumental period, fractional
uncertainty in the latter is very much
larger than fractional
uncertainty in temperature change
measurements, and is approximately normally distributed.
We do not investigate the twentieth century trend of PRCP, SLP, or TOA radiation because the interannual to decadal variability is generally
large in these variables, and there are
large uncertainties and sometimes an artificial trend in observations owing to the difficulty in
measurement of these variables (Trenberth et al. 2007).