It so happens that
the latest GDP growth rate figure, for the last quarter of 2017, was just shy of 4.5 percent.
Not exact matches
Even the Tax Foundation, which typically is aggressive in its
growth assumptions for tax cuts, said that the final bill will boost
GDP growth by just 0.35 percentage point in 2018 — and that the effect would diminish in
later years.
In that case, high
GDP growth levels simply disguise the seeming collapse of underlying economic
growth in a way that has happened many times before — always in the
late stages of similar apparent investment - driven
growth miracles.
In contrast to the 3 %
GDP growth widely reported for the
latest quarter, year - over-year
growth in
GDP, after peaking at 3 1/2 % in Q3 / 2010, has basically flatlined around 1 1/2 % for the last three quarters.
The
latest revision to
GDP took second quarter
growth to 0.2 %.
The
latest GDP projections see
growth sinking into the 8 percent range, a pace that itself may be unsustainable.
On the economy, I've noted in recent updates that most recessions include one (and occasionally two) positive quarters of
GDP growth, so the
latest GDP reading was no surprise, and is not prima facie evidence that the recession is over.
Thailand's gross domestic product
GDP growth this year is expected to rise to 1.5 per cent, according to the Bank of Thailand (BOT)
latest...
The size of Canada's economy was around $ 2 trillion dollars at the end of 2016, and according to the
latest GDP numbers released by Statistics Canada, the Canadian economy expanded at 0.6 percent in May 2017 compared to the previous month, largely led by advances in the oil, gas and mining industries, which accounted for around two - thirds of the country's
GDP growth.
The
latest SEP also shows the Fed upped its outlook for
GDP growth in 2018 to 2.7 %, an increase from 2.5 % in its December forecasts.
However, Asian markets do not appear to be out of the woods just yet: Export - dependent Taiwan reported a 1 % year - on - year
GDP decrease in the third quarter, and the BOJ made a
late - October announcement of reduced
growth and inflation forecasts for Japan.
The Fed thought — even in
late 2007 - we'd see 3 %
GDP growth in 2008 — when instead we saw the worst economy since the Great Depression.
Given that the headline payroll
growth has been solid, the
latest round of US
GDP data (for Q2) surprised to the upside, and personal consumption, real personal consumption and personal income data also surprised to the upside (July data), PCE inflation (fell to 1.4 % Y / Y in July, hitting the lowest since
late 2015) and general wage
growth has been the missing piece of the puzzle for the Fed.
The
latest Tankan Survey is at its highest level since 2007, while real
GDP growth for 2017 could hit 2 %.
A bit
later in this report, we'll tackle why we believe copper prices have been rallying since 2016, while China's
GDP growth rate has risen only slightly.
The
latest Consensus forecasts are for
GDP growth in the G7 group of countries of 1 1/2 per cent in 2003, similar to that achieved last year, rising to 2 1/2 per cent in 2004 (Graph 1).
The
latest ABS projections, based on Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) estimates, indicate that farm
GDP fell by around 30 per cent over the year to the June quarter 2003, subtracting a little under 1 percentage point from
GDP growth, which is a slightly smaller subtraction than previously expected.
The result in a number of countries, including Australia, was average credit
growth over the
late 1980s almost 10 percentage points faster than the
growth in nominal
GDP (Graph 63).
Growth of non-farm GDP over the latest four quarters for which we have data was just over 4 per cent; domestic demand, while slowing a little from its most recent peak, expanded by 5 1/2 per cent over that period; employment growth over the past year has been around trend, though lower in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained close to the lower end of the range in which it has fluctuated over the past two de
Growth of non-farm
GDP over the
latest four quarters for which we have data was just over 4 per cent; domestic demand, while slowing a little from its most recent peak, expanded by 5 1/2 per cent over that period; employment
growth over the past year has been around trend, though lower in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained close to the lower end of the range in which it has fluctuated over the past two de
growth over the past year has been around trend, though lower in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained close to the lower end of the range in which it has fluctuated over the past two decades.
After only modest
growth initially following the 2001 global recession, international trade in goods and services has rebounded strongly of
late, increasing by about 10 per cent in 2004, or approximately double the rate of
growth in world
GDP (Graph A1).
Payroll employment
growth has not exactly been gangbusters as of
late and neither has headline
GDP growth — both perceptual Fed targets for improvement at the outset of QE3.
Modest
growth in export quantities and prices, together with flat imports (on a quarterly basis), pushed the March quarter balance on goods and services back into a surplus of around half of one per cent of
GDP, reversing the deterioration
late last year.
Secular Stagnation Taken as a whole, the
latest Fed projections of slower
GDP growth, low unemployment and still - low inflation suggest that concerns of a so - called secular stagnation may be taking root among Fed policymakers.
The
latest GDP figures, albeit provisional, are expected to serve as an encouragement to government of a rebound in economic activities, as Finance Minister Seth Terkper in June last year announced to Parliament that government had revised its expectation of economic
growth for 2015 from 4.1 percent to 3.5 percent.
The graph below plots real rates (the 10 - year yield minus consumer inflation) in Britain, along with
GDP growth a year
later.
Similarly, the
GDP growth rate did not give investors a sign to sell until
late 2008.
In economic modeling, many of the first steps in creating a model are symbolic anyway, so «
growth rate,», «change in output», and «economic
growth» are used interchangeably to describe changes in
GDP because the values either aren't known, irrelevant until
later in the project, or pulled from data that describes it using one or several of the previously stated terms.
In fact, the
latest Q2
GDP growth forecast from the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is for a
growth rate more than double the Q1
GDP rate.
I think energy and metals will tank
later once the rest of the world grasps how bad our recession will be (it will have to hit China; they have 11 - 12 %
GDP growth and 7 % inflation, so despite the talk of how the place is booming, I suspect it is concentrated in the coastal cities and not widely shared, since real
GDP growth isn't all that robust by emerging economy standards).
«We can not afford to say, «We're going to have 25 years of 8 percent
GDP growth, then do a cleanup act
later.
Although India's installed solar capacity almost doubled in 2016 to 12 GW, the reduction in this year's
growth is attributable to many factors, including reduced exports, a declining share of industrial and agricultural production in
GDP, reduced consumer demand, and both a sudden fall in money circulation attributable to demonetization
late in 2016, and a goods and services tax introduced in 2017.
In the eyes of the central government, there is clearly an imperative to keep the economy humming as the reactions to the
latest «disappointing»
GDP growth figures clearly demonstrate.
And not just for oil companies — although Dubai's early
growth was fuelled by the discovery of oil in the
late 1960s, contrary to popular belief, less than 5 % of Dubai's
GDP is oil - based.
While it is uncertain the degree to which this will affect
growth in 2013, there is a growing consensus that the reduced level of after - tax income for households this year will depress
GDP later in the year.
Economic
growth in 2018 is expected to be stronger than the 2.3 percent annual
GDP growth rate in 2017, according to the
latest NABE Outlook.