This estimate was compared with results from an ocean model - data synthesis from ECMWF and
a leading atmospheric model - data synthesis produced in the US.
To simulate the interplay of global climate with regional pollution conditions, the scientists turned to two of the world's
leading atmospheric models, both based at NCAR and developed through broad collaborations with the atmospheric science community.
Not exact matches
But advances in the understanding of
atmospheric oxygen levels are challenging that idea, explains Sandra Schachat, a paleoentomologist at Stanford University, who
led a recent study that
modeled the gas's availability during the hexapod gap.
And by carefully measuring and
modeling the resulting changes in
atmospheric composition, scientists could improve their estimate of how sensitive Earth's climate is to CO2, said
lead author Joyce Penner, a professor of
atmospheric science at the University of Michigan whose work focuses on improving global climate
models and their ability to
model the interplay between clouds and aerosol particles.
The computer
model, designed by research fellow Iain Couzin, could
lead to improved guidance systems for clusters of robots, such as those used to gather oceanographic and
atmospheric data.
«Exactly when is
model - dependent, but what is clear is that the formation of continental crust naturally
leads to two rises in
atmospheric oxygen, just as we see in the fossil record,» Lee said.
Morgan O'Neill, the paper's
lead author and a former PhD student in MIT's Department of Earth,
Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences (EAPS), says the team's
model may eventually be used to gauge
atmospheric conditions on planets outside the solar system.
Using 19 climate
models, a team of researchers
led by Professor Minghua Zhang of the School of Marine and
Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook University, discovered persistent dry and warm biases of simulated climate over the region of the Southern Great Plain in the central U.S. that was caused by poor
modeling of
atmospheric convective systems — the vertical transport of heat and moisture in the atmosphere.
A Columbia Engineering team
led by Pierre Gentine, professor of earth and environmental engineering, and Adam Sobel, professor of applied physics and applied mathematics and of earth and environmental sciences, has developed a new approach, opposite to climate
models, to correct climate
model inaccuracies using a high - resolution
atmospheric model that more precisely resolves clouds and convection (precipitation) and parameterizes the feedback between convection and
atmospheric circulation.
The discovery could
lead to cleaner fuels, enhanced
atmospheric models, and a solution to the enduring mystery of how soot forms.
Scientists use data from the SGP to learn about cloud, aerosol, and
atmospheric processes, which in turn
leads to improvements in
models of the Earth's climate.
For the last five years, he helped to
lead the technical development team for the next generation of the
atmospheric component of the Community Climate System
Model Project, one of the major climate
modeling activities in the United States.
In his career - long support of CESM, Rasch was formerly co-chair of the
Atmospheric Model Working Group and team
lead for the version five development of CESM's
atmospheric component, called the Community Atmosphere
Model (CAM5).
A greater understanding of the dynamics of chemical reactions is
leading to better
models of
atmospheric chemistry.
In the same paper in which he made his often - quoted «prediction» that doubling the
atmospheric concentration of CO 2 would
lead to an increase of 10 °C in surface mean temperature, F. Möller makes an almost never quoted disclaimer to the effect that a 1 percent increase in general cloudiness in the same
model would completely mask this effect.
The new 17 - author paper (accessible pdf)(
lead by Ben Santer), does a much better job of comparing the various trends in
atmospheric datasets with the
models and is very careful to take account of systematic uncertainties in all aspects of that comparison (unlike Douglass et al).
Climate
models suggest that human activities, specifically the emission of
atmospheric greenhouse gases, may
lead to increases in the frequency of severe storms in certain regions of the Northern Hemisphere.
On global vs. local, how about the global
model prediction of a deepening and widening of the tropical
atmospheric circulation, which
leads to the Hadley cell expansion and the projection of the dry zones expanding polewards.
[Response: At the dawn of coupled
modelling, errors that arose in separate developments of ocean and
atmospheric models lead to significant inconsistencies between the fluxes that each component needed from the other, and the ones they were getting.
OLR increases in the optically thinner bands would
lead to
atmospheric warming in general, but this has to be accompanied by OLR decreases somewhere, such as in optically thicker bands (and always in the band where optical thickness was added, assuming positive lapse rates everywhere as is the case in a 1 - dimensional equilibrium
model with zero solar heating above the tropopause, or at least not too much solar heating in some distributions), which will tend to cause cooling of upper levels.
Note that he used the past in his sentence «satellite data showed no warming» and then he goes on «The report showed that selective corrections to the
atmospheric data could
lead to some warming, thus reducing the conflict between observations and
models descriptions of what greenhouse warming should look like.»
When ocean
models were first coupled to
atmospheric models well over a quarter century ago, systematic errors in each component near their interface
led to sizeable drift and unrealistic climate simulations.
Contrary to predictions by the world's
leading climate
models and despite rising levels of
atmospheric carbon dioxide, global surface temperatures have been flat for 16 years.
Prempting Cohenite, The facts you point to, increases in
atmospheric CO2, despite contradictory temperature numbers,
leads to, at least, That our present
model of the earth climate is wrong.
Evidence in support of the hypothesis that increasing
atmospheric carbon dioxide MUST inevitably
lead to an increase in global temperature exists only in the
Models.
If a cyclic pattern could be found that is a natural analog for these
atmospheric oscillations, and upon investigation be found to out preform the
lead time of the
models, with as good a resolution as the 5 to 7 day
modeled forecast, shouldn't that be at least considered?
To determine the magnitude of European emissions from the
lead pollution levels measured in the Greenland ice, the team used state - of - the - art
atmospheric transport
model simulations.
Mathematical physicist Enting (author of the Australian Mathematical Scences Institute book Twisted: The distorted mathematics of greenhouse denial) worked at Australia's
leading science agency, the CSIRO, for 24 years in
atmospheric research and
modelling of the global carbon cycle.
The institute's early study of the Earth and planetary atmospheres using data collected by satellites, space probes, and space probes eventually
led to GISS becoming a
leading center of
atmospheric modeling and of climate change.
* * * The evidence to support the theory of anthropogenic, or human - caused, climate change has been mounting since the mid-1950s, when
atmospheric models predicted that growing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere would add to the natural «greenhouse effect» and
lead to warming.
«The authors write that North Pacific Decadal Variability (NPDV) «is a key component in predictability studies of both regional and global climate change,»... they emphasize that given the links between both the PDO and the NPGO with global climate, the accurate characterization and the degree of predictability of these two modes in coupled climate
models is an important «open question in climate dynamics» that needs to be addressed... report that
model - derived «temporal and spatial statistics of the North Pacific Ocean modes exhibit significant discrepancies from observations in their twentieth - century climate... conclude that «for implications on future climate change, the coupled climate
models show no consensus on projected future changes in frequency of either the first or second
leading pattern of North Pacific SST anomalies,» and they say that «the lack of a consensus in changes in either mode also affects confidence in projected changes in the overlying
atmospheric circulation.»»
Therefore, a
model run driven with
atmospheric data from 2007, which is started from spring ice conditions in 2008 instead of 2007,
leads to an even smaller ice extent.
It is our belief that «theory
leads experiment» on climate change because all well - accepted
atmospheric models predict a temperature rise.
And that change can be
modelled in many ways which each
leads to a different forecast of future
atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Simulations with this
model led Berger and Loutre to conclude that glacial inception is not due for another 50,000 years, as long as the CO2
atmospheric concentration stays above 220 ppmv [8].
«Theoretical
models have suggested stratospheres may define a distinct class of ultra-hot planets, with important implications for their
atmospheric physics and chemistry,» said Tom Evans,
lead author and research fellow at the University of Exeter, United Kingdom.
The USGCRP was established during a period of significant relevant development in Earth system science, and was designed and
led from the beginning to support work in
atmospheric science, oceanography, biogeochemistry — observing systems,
modeling, process studies.
For the
atmospheric equations of motion that system is not the hydrostatic equations of motion that all climate
models are based on, e.g., vertical columnar heating does not
lead to a solution that is smooth (large scale) in space.
However, the latest upgrades to the GFDL hurricane
model have
led to significant improvements in hurricane intensity forecasts by better representing the
atmospheric and oceanic physical processes critical for intensity prediction.
Yet observational and
modeling studies have shown that these aerosols have
led to large regional changes in surface and
atmospheric temperatures, the surface energy budget, and rainfall (Ramanathan et al., 2001a; Chung et al., 2002; Menon et al., 2002b).
However, dry - spell duration and warming trend effects on vegetation productivity may be at least partly offset by rising
atmospheric CO2 effects on plants (Bachelet et al., 2001; Thuiller et al., 2006b),
leading to sometimes contrasting projections for deserts that are based on different
modelling techniques that either incorporate or ignore CO2 - fertilisation effects.