Sentences with phrase «leading climate models»

In a 2012 study, Elizabeth A. Stanton, an environmental economist at Synapse Energy Economics, noted that projections by the International Energy Agency, on which leading climate models are based, assume that the least developed countries will fail to close the prosperity gap with the rich of the world.

«The rising risk results from decreases in precipitation, based on 16 leading climate models, and increases in water demand, based on current growth trends.

El Niño forecast, IRI ensemble: leading climate models show El Niño during summer 2014 Compared to last month's forecast the IRI climate model ensemble shows a somewhat faster development of a positive ENSO state and clear indications of El Niño... Continue reading →

Increased efforts in the U.S. over the past few years to build better climate models have paid off, and according to the authors» measure of reliability, one of the U.S. models is now one of the leading climate models worldwide.

Contrary to predictions by the world's leading climate models and despite rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, global surface temperatures have been flat for 16 years.

Why not construct some emissions scenarios that cover what you think might happen over the next 50 (or 100) years, and then run those scenarios through a range of leading climate models, performing multiple runs for each model to capture both the uncertainty in the model physics and internal variability.

«By comparing the response of clouds and water vapor to ENSO forcing in nature with that in AMIP simulations by some leading climate models, an earlier evaluation of tropical cloud and water vapor feedbacks has revealed two common biases in the models: (1) an underestimate of the strength of the negative cloud albedo feedback and (2) an overestimate of the positive feedback from the greenhouse effect of water vapor.

«The rising risk results from decreases in precipitation, based on 16 leading climate models, and increases in water demand, based on current growth trends.

The study brings together results from the majority of the world's leading climate models.

As leading climate models predict that sea level rise will make the islands uninhabitable by 2070, 2050 or even as early as 2030, the country is striking back with an ambitious programme of island restoration.

According to leading climate models, all the added CO2 could trigger an average global temperature rise of up to 10 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100.

Dr Pete Falloon of the Met Office Hadley Centre, who led the climate modelling, said «State - of - the - art high resolution climate models were used in this project alongside the latest UKCP09 climate projections.

Not exact matches

Darin Kingston of d.light, whose profitable solar - powered LED lanterns simultaneously address poverty, education, air pollution / toxic fumes / health risks, energy savings, carbon footprint, and more Janine Benyus, biomimicry pioneer who finds models in the natural world for everything from extracting water from fog (as a desert beetle does) to construction materials (spider silk) to designing flood - resistant buildings by studying anthills in India's monsoon climate, and shows what's possible when you invite the planet to join your design thinking team Dean Cycon, whose coffee company has not only exclusively sold organic fairly traded gourmet coffee and cocoa beans since its founding in 1993, but has funded dozens of village - led community development projects in the lands where he sources his beans John Kremer, whose concept of exponential growth through «biological marketing,» just as a single kernel of corn grows into a plant bearing thousands of new kernels, could completely change your business strategy Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute, who built a near - net - zero - energy luxury home back in 1983, and has developed a scientific, economically viable plan to get the entire economy off oil, coal, and nuclear and onto renewables — while keeping and even improving our high standard of living

It's going to be one of the major topics at a regional Climate Solutions Summit in Syracuse this weekend, as the city hopes to take the lead on an energy supply model that uses renewable energy.

Reducing uncertainties in the models could lead to better long - term assessments of climate, Esposito says.

Dr. Holloway is a Professor in the Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies at the University of Wisconsin - Madison, where she leads a research program that employs computer models and satellite data to understand links between regional air quality, energy, and climate.

It now seems possible, though, that flaws in climate models are leading them to underestimate even shorter - term feedbacks.

Even if the near future doesn't unfold like the 2004 climate - gone - haywire film The Day After Tomorrow, scientists need to be able to produce accurate models of what abrupt change (more likely spanning hundreds or thousands or years, rather than days) would look like and why it might occur, explains Zhengyu Liu, lead author of the study and director of the University of Wisconsin — Madison's Center for Climate Reclimate - gone - haywire film The Day After Tomorrow, scientists need to be able to produce accurate models of what abrupt change (more likely spanning hundreds or thousands or years, rather than days) would look like and why it might occur, explains Zhengyu Liu, lead author of the study and director of the University of Wisconsin — Madison's Center for Climate ReClimate Research.

The results are based on a number of independent climate archives, as well as instrumental records, and hold up whilst applying a wide range of correction methods, which leads Laepple to believe that the problem lies more with the models.

A. David McGuire, U.S. Geological Survey senior scientist and climate system modeling expert with the University of Alaska Fairbanks Institute of Arctic Biology, is lead author of the paper.

Future field experiments that can manipulate all three conditions at once will lead to better models of how long - term climate changes will affect ecosystems worldwide.

Instead, this effect could be used to test climate models, he said, to check if their physics is good enough to reproduce how the pull of the moon eventually leads to less rain.

On a basic level, global climate models are similar to today's weather forecasting tools, explains Jerry Meehl, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, and a leading climate modeler.

And by carefully measuring and modeling the resulting changes in atmospheric composition, scientists could improve their estimate of how sensitive Earth's climate is to CO2, said lead author Joyce Penner, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Michigan whose work focuses on improving global climate models and their ability to model the interplay between clouds and aerosol particles.

«These experiments will enable us to further test and refine the underlying processes in the CORPSE model and should lead to improved predictions of the role of plant - soil interactions in global climate change,» Sulman said.

Although climate models have suggested that spring temperatures affect stream flow, this study is the first to examine the instrumental historical record to see if a temperature effect could be detected, said lead author Connie Woodhouse, a UA professor of geography and development and of dendrochronology.

London researcher Rachel Lowe, Ph.D., led the development of the model that is based on 2016 climate conditions when El Nino was present in the urban coastal city of Machala, Ecuador, an area where these mosquito - borne viruses are most prevalent.

The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to Earth's climate system.

«Prior analyses have found that climate models underestimate the observed rate of tropical widening, leading to questions on possible model deficiencies, possible errors in the observations, and lack of confidence in future projections,» said Robert J. Allen, an assistant professor of climatology in UC Riverside's Department of Earth Sciences, who led the study.

Using a global climate model, a team led by Princeton University researchers measured how severely heat waves interact with urban heat islands, now and in the future, in 50 American cities across three climate zones.

The research, led by the University of Leeds and published today [12 June] in the journal FEMS Microbiology Ecology, will help improve climate change models that have previously neglected the role of microbes in darkening the Earth's surface.

The international team of co-authors, led by Peter Clark of Oregon State University, generated new scenarios for temperature rise, glacial melting, sea - level rise and coastal flooding based on state - of - the - art climate and ice sheet models.

«When we included projected Antarctic wind shifts in a detailed global ocean model, we found water up to 4 °C warmer than current temperatures rose up to meet the base of the Antarctic ice shelves,» said lead author Dr Paul Spence from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS).

Using 19 climate models, a team of researchers led by Professor Minghua Zhang of the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook University, discovered persistent dry and warm biases of simulated climate over the region of the Southern Great Plain in the central U.S. that was caused by poor modeling of atmospheric convective systems — the vertical transport of heat and moisture in the atmosphere.

They used computer models to predict not only how climate change would lead to agricultural changes, but how these agricultural changes would impact water quality.

Lead author William Taylor, a postdoctoral research fellow at the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History, says that this model «enables us for the first time to link horse use with other important cultural developments in ancient Mongolia and eastern Eurasia, and evaluate the role of climate and environmental change in the local origins of horse riding.»

Long - term predictions of summer Arctic extent made by global climate models (GCMs) suggest that the downward trend will likely lead to an ice - free Arctic summer in the middle of the century.

«Formation of coastal sea ice in North Pacific drives ocean circulation, climate: New understanding of changes in North Pacific ocean circulation over the past 1.2 million years could lead to better global climate models.»

The international research initiative IceGeoHeat led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences establishes in the current online issue of Nature Geoscience that this effect can not be neglected when modeling the ice sheet as part of a climate study.

An interdisciplinary team of researchers led by ETH climate scientist Joeri Rogelj used several models to calculate how the climatic effects of CO2 and SLCF break down and how they relate to each other.

The researchers plugged this information into a computer model to find out the effect on the climate of increasing tree cover and diminishing grassland and found that it led to a global temperature increase of about 0.1 °C (Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029 / 2010gl043985).

A Columbia Engineering team led by Pierre Gentine, professor of earth and environmental engineering, and Adam Sobel, professor of applied physics and applied mathematics and of earth and environmental sciences, has developed a new approach, opposite to climate models, to correct climate model inaccuracies using a high - resolution atmospheric model that more precisely resolves clouds and convection (precipitation) and parameterizes the feedback between convection and atmospheric circulation.

A new scientific paper by a University of Maryland - led international team of distinguished scientists, including five members of the National Academies, argues that there are critical two - way feedbacks missing from current climate models that are used to inform environmental, climate, and economic policies.

Climate models do not predict an even warming of the whole planet: changes in wind patterns and ocean currents can change the way heat is distributed, leading to some parts warming much faster than average, while a few may cool, at least at first.

A recent explosion in climate data and models has, however, led to a reassessment of its influence, according to Stephen C. Riser and M. Susan Lozier in a feature piece published in this month's Scientific American.

The three papers remove a major stumbling block to a scientific consensus, says Benjamin Santer of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, lead author of the climate model study.

Climate model simulations show that Pinatubo - like eruptions tend to shorten La Niñas, lengthen El Niños and lead to unusual warming during neutral periods, the study says.

Dr Nikolaos Skliris, a Research Fellow at the University of Southampton who led the study, said: «Our findings match what has been predicted by models of a warming climate; as the world gets warmer wet regions will continue to get wetter and dry regions will continue to get drier.

«We're showing the shortcomings of climate models,» says Susan Lozier, a physical oceanographer at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina, who leads the $ 35 million, seven - nation project known as the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP).

This fact may lead may limit the predictive capacity of the models bot more research is needed: «It remains to be shown how ignoring core parts of the industrial system influences the feasibility of certain scenarios to mitigate climate change.