Sentences with phrase «less about climate sensitivity»
The vast majority of the public knows a lot less about climate sensitivity, the link between hurricanes and CO2 or analogues with past climates than either you or I do, but the link between these issues and actual policy is quite convoluted.
https://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/ Not exact matches
If they would use a more realistic climate transfer sensitivity of 0.11 K / Wm -2, or even somewhat higher (0.12 or 0.13) for the long - term, and use trends instead of smooth curve points, they would end up with solar contributions of 10 % or less for 1950 - 2000 and near 0 % and about 10 % in 1980 - 2000 using the PMOD and ACRIM data, respectively.
Since Hansen has been talking about all the different forcings for a while now (see above) and does not think that climate sensitivity is anywhere near 1 °C (let alone less), one might question who is actually playing silly games.
Some global warming «skeptics» argue that the Earth's climate sensitivity is so low that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 will result in a surface temperature change on the order of 1 °C or less, and that therefore global warming is nothing to worry about.
What you notice about climate sensitivity is that the central tendency doesn't change much — your distribution just mostly gets narrower as you add data — a lot at first, and less as you proceed.
Even if climate sensitivity is somewhat less than the IPCC's median value of about 3 degrees Celsius, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are increasing exponentially, so a smaller value merely buys an extra decade or two until the same amount of warming is reached.
Over very long time periods such that the carbon cycle is in equilibrium with the climate, one gets a sensitivity to global temperature of about 20 ppm CO2 / deg C, or 75 ppb CH4 / deg C. On shorter timescales, the sensitivity for CO2 must be less (since there is no time for the deep ocean to come into balance), and variations over the last 1000 years or so (which are less than 10 ppm), indicate that even if Moberg is correct, the maximum sensitivity is around 15 ppm CO2 / deg C. CH4 reacts faster, but even for short term excursions (such as the 8.2 kyr event) has a similar sensitivity.
«New Paper Finds Climate Sensitivity to CO2 Is About 63 % Less Than IPCC Claims» Analysis.
The IPCC in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) concluded that climate sensitivity is likely to be in the range 2 to 4.5 °C with a best estimate of about 3 °C, and is very unlikely to be less than 1.5 °C.
Thus the correct conclusion is that if Lindzen is correct about low climate sensitivity, we should already have seen much less warming than we have seen thus far.
L&S estimate the equilibrium climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 from their model at «about 1 - 1.5 °C or less».
Such an index would tell you nothing about why somebody believes that the climate's sensitivity is what they believe it to be, much less why that number is significant.