During choppy or
sideways market conditions a bearish crossover is
less meaningful, since there is no trend
in either direction present.
Extremes
in observable conditions that we associate with some of the worst moments
in history to invest include: Aug 1929 (with the October crash within 10 weeks of that instance), Aug - Oct 1972 (with an immediate retreat of
less than 4 %, followed a few months later by the start of a 50 % bear
market collapse), Aug 1987 (with the October crash within 10 weeks), July 1999 (associated with a quick 10 %
market plunge within 10 weeks), another signal
in March 2000 (with a 10 % loss within 10 weeks, a recovery into September of that year, and then a 50 %
market collapse), July - Oct 2007 (followed by an immediate plunge of about 10 %
in July, a recovery into October, and another signal that marked the
market peak and the beginning of a 55 %
market loss), two earlier signals
in the recent half - cycle, one
in July - early Oct of 2013 and another
in Nov 2013 - Mar 2014, both associated with
sideways market consolidations, and the present extreme.