The usual Sea Ice Extent (JAXA daily data plotted here as an anomaly — usually 2 clicks to «download your attachment») shows the crazy excursions during 2016 (a lot
less Sea Ice Extent due to a very early melt season and a very late freeze season but with the height of the melt not as big as some expected and leaving a lot of ice in - place at the height of te melt).
Svalbard in the western Barents Sea has recently had
less sea ice extent than it had in the 1980s, especially in the west and north, but this is not unprecedented.
Global Weather and Climate Logistics, 5.32, Statistical Our predictor screening approach predicts slightly more sea ice extent than last year and our anomaly correlation approach predicts slightly
less sea ice extent than last year.
In fact it was running hotter as demonstrated by two big ice melt years and
less sea ice extent in general.
Not exact matches
The global mean temperature rise of
less than 1 degree C in the past century does not seem like much, but it is associated with a winter temperature rise of 3 to 4 degrees C over most of the Arctic in the past 20 years, unprecedented loss of
ice from all the tropical glaciers, a decrease of 15 to 20 % in late summer
sea ice extent, rising sealevel, and a host of other measured signs of anomalous and rapid climate change.
Sea ice extent has dropped precipitously as has the amount of old
ice, which is
less prone to breakup.
With increasingly
less multi-season
ice, rebuilding previous
sea ice extent gets harder and harder.
Its simple, winter was much smaller in
extent, mimicking directly the
lesser volume of Arctic
sea ice.
As you are probably aware, the Barents
Sea and to a somewhat
lesser extent the Kara
Sea had quite late
icing up this year (as opposed to other NH basins which more or
less froze up on queue).
Results showed the storm caused the
sea ice to pass the previous record 10 days earlier in August than it would have otherwise, but only reduced the final September
ice extent by 150,000 square kilometers (almost 60,000 square miles),
less than a 5 percent difference.
The established icons of Arctic climate change are the polar bear and, to a
lesser extent, those indigenous communities that are trying to maintain traditional ways in the face of slushy floes and the relentless erosion of coasts exposed to waves as
sea ice retreats.
There was a USGS 2010 paper by D Douglas that predicted «For the Bering
Sea, median March
ice extent is projected to be about 25 percent
less than the 1979 — 1988 average by mid-century and 60 percent
less by the end of the century» But if Bering
ice is driven by the PDO I suspect that prediction will fail.
There was a USGS 2010 paper by D Douglas that predicted «For the Bering
Sea, median March
ice extent is projected to be about 25 percent
less than the 1979 — 1988 average by mid-century and 60 percent
less by the end of the century» But if Bering
ice is d»
Based solely on how high the A.O. has been this winter, I would expect higher
sea -
ice extents, or
less retreat across most of the Arctic
seas.
From the Archives, Oct. 2, 2009 The established icons of Arctic climate change are the polar bear and, to a
lesser extent, those indigenous communities that are trying to maintain traditional ways in the face of slushy floes and the relentless erosion of coasts exposed to waves as
sea ice retreats.
«By «
ice - free», scientists usually mean a
sea ice extent of
less than one million square kilometres, rather than zero
sea ice cover.
Prior to 1978, satellite measurements of
sea ice extent are not available and the data is much
less reliable.
There has been a long - term downward trend in summer global
sea ice extent, though the trend is
less clear in the winter, reflecting the fact that the Arctic shows a clearer long - term trend than the Antarctic.
Though most of the CMIP5 models project a strong > nearly
ice - free Arctic (
sea ice extent less than 1 × 106 km2 for at least 5 consecutive years)...
«Though most of the CMIP5 models project a nearly
ice - free Arctic (
sea ice extent less than 1 × 106 km2 for at least 5 consecutive years) at the end of summer by 2100 in the RCP8.5 scenario...»
For high GHG emissions such as those corresponding to RCP8.5, a nearly
ice - free Arctic Ocean (
sea ice extent less than 1 × 106 km2 for at least 5 consecutive years) in September is likely before mid-century (medium confidence).
When there is
less summer
sea ice extent, the rebound to the following Spring maximum is greater.
Though most of the CMIP5 models project a nearly
ice - free Arctic (
sea ice extent less than 1 × 106 km2 for at least 5 consecutive years) at the end of summer by 2100 in the RCP8.5 scenario (see Section 12.4.6.1), some show large changes in the near term as well.
«CMIP5 models project a nearly
ice - free Arctic (
sea ice extent less than 1 × 10 ^ 6 km2 for at least 5 consecutive years) at the end of summer by 2100 in the RCP8.5 scenario... «Assume a 15 km2 million max and 3 km2 million min.
Gauthier et al. (Canadian
Ice Service); 4.9 Million Square Kilometers; Heuristic / Empirical The Canadian Ice Service (CIS) is predicting the minimum arctic sea ice extent to be less than 5 million square kilometres in September 20
Ice Service); 4.9 Million Square Kilometers; Heuristic / Empirical The Canadian
Ice Service (CIS) is predicting the minimum arctic sea ice extent to be less than 5 million square kilometres in September 20
Ice Service (CIS) is predicting the minimum arctic
sea ice extent to be less than 5 million square kilometres in September 20
ice extent to be
less than 5 million square kilometres in September 2010.
1 it is
less than 1m sq km of
Sea Ice EXTENT so, suppose your best instrument is a satellite with a 25 sqkm footprint.
The September
sea ice extent anomaly should demonstrate tendencies of more
ice in the Pacific and
less ice in the Atlantic sectors.
My calculation is that the Arctic
sea ice extent is down a little
less than 32 % from the first complete year of the satellite record — 1979.
It is important to understand that the maximum
extent of
sea ice during the winter is a
less important climatic indicator than the minimum
extent in summer.
Sampling areas were split according to their
ice cover: North - West (
less sea ice cover), South - East (larger amplitude in
sea ice extent) and North - East / South - West (NESW) as bears from that zone are more mobile among all regions of Svalbard.
The total
extent of the Arctic
sea ice reached 5.59 million square miles, which is about 450,000 square miles
less than the average and 20,000 square miles more than 2017.
In forcing the model with these winds, only the case of using winds from 2007 to project 2008
sea ice extent produce
less sea ice than the observed 2007
ice extent (Ensemble member 7).
Lukovich and Barber: The results from an investigation of stratospheric circulation in winter and spring, and comparison of summertime surface winds and SLP with vortex splitting and minima in
sea ice extent composites suggested that the September, 2009
ice extent would be comparable to or
less than the September
ice extent minimum in 2008, based on dynamic considerations.
Five (5) respondents suggest a return toward the long term trend line of summer
sea ice loss, but
less than the 1979 - 2000 mean
extents;
And the US National Snow and
Ice Data Centre (NSDIC) reports that the sea ice was also a full million square kilometres less than May 2012 − the year that, in September, recorded the lowest - ever summer exte
Ice Data Centre (NSDIC) reports that the
sea ice was also a full million square kilometres less than May 2012 − the year that, in September, recorded the lowest - ever summer exte
ice was also a full million square kilometres
less than May 2012 − the year that, in September, recorded the lowest - ever summer
extent.
We believe that the examples below indicate that the Arctic
sea ice extent in 1979 was quite high, and that there were many periods over the last few centuries when the
sea ice extent was
less.
So, the following analysis shouldn't be relied on as conclusive evidence that the Arctic
sea ice extent has been
less than in 1979 many times in the past, but merely suggestive evidence.
However, to a
lesser extent, these turbulent fluxes can also be transmitted through a thinner
sea ice cover.
As
sea ice extents drop,
less ice survives from year to year.
But looking at the May 2016 melt pond fraction in our
sea ice simulation, the pond fraction is higher in the Kara Sea, north of Svalbard and in the Fram Strait compared to May 2015 and with a lesser extent to May 2012, but lower in the East Siberian Sea and the Arctic Bas
sea ice simulation, the pond fraction is higher in the Kara
Sea, north of Svalbard and in the Fram Strait compared to May 2015 and with a lesser extent to May 2012, but lower in the East Siberian Sea and the Arctic Bas
Sea, north of Svalbard and in the Fram Strait compared to May 2015 and with a
lesser extent to May 2012, but lower in the East Siberian
Sea and the Arctic Bas
Sea and the Arctic Basin.
With reduced September
ice extent, the rebound to March maximum is strong, but with greater September
sea ice extent the rebound to the next maximum is far
less.
Usually more winter snow in the Central Arctic has seemed to indicate
less September
sea ice extent.
The NSIDC
sea ice extent chart for 5 July (Figure 2) shows less than median sea ice extents north of Alaska, in the Barents Sea, and in Baffin B
sea ice extent chart for 5 July (Figure 2) shows
less than median
sea ice extents north of Alaska, in the Barents Sea, and in Baffin B
sea ice extents north of Alaska, in the Barents
Sea, and in Baffin B
Sea, and in Baffin Bay.
Arctic
sea ice melted to a
lesser extent than in 2012, although the total
sea ice extent was still lower than in any year before 2007.
The long - term decreases in summer
sea ice are superposed on extreme record minima in 2007 and even
less in 2012 (Stroeve et al., 2008), 10 with the record low in Arctic
sea ice extent on September 16, 2012 of only approximately 3.4 million square km.11 This September 2012
sea ice extent minimum was only 49 percent of its 1979 - 2000 mean.
This is largely because melting
sea ice changes the albedo of high latitude oceans, and to a
lesser extent because an inversion prevails at high latitudes, especially in winter, whereas at low latitudes the heating is convectively mixed througout the troposphere.
In the Greenland
Sea and Fram Strait area, the June 2012
ice extent is larger in the south,
less in the north near Svalbard, but otherwise comparable to the decadal means (Figure 4).
This is not because there was not thicker winter
sea ice near Iceland (there was), but because that was more than compensated by
sea ice losses in
less accessible areas so that overall
sea ice extent declined in that period (albeit, slowly):
The
extent of Arctic
sea ice at the peak of the summer melt season now typically covers 40 percent
less area than it did in the late 1970s and early 1980s.
At minimum
sea ice extents near the equinox, the sun is below the horizon for 12 hours each day, and rises only a little bit (
less than 10 degrees) above the horizon for a few minutes each day at solar local noon.