As of January 2013, intermediate - term real interest rates are about 4 %
less than their historical average.
Since 2005, the Consumer Price Index has gone up just 2 % annually,
less than the historical average.
(If you're sensible, your estimates will be
less than the historical averages to build in a margin safety: most financial planners I know assume stocks will returns about 7.5 %.)
It's important to note that if you are retired during a period when the stock market returns
less than its historical average, and you withdraw 8 % a year from your retirement savings as Ramsey recommends, you can deplete your retirement funds to the point that it deals a severe blow to your standard of living.
A quick way to tell if a stock is worthy of further research is to determine if it is trading for
less than its historical average price - to - earnings ratio.
In Los Angeles and New York, they have opened slightly
less than the historical average, says Willett.
He said the good news is that the economy is in no danger of a recession; however, this year will likely mark nine straight years of subpar growth of
less than the historical average of 3 percent.»
Not exact matches
The favorable market performance associated with many
historical economic expansions is fully accounted for by 1) favorable post-recession valuations, with the S&P 500
averaging less than 9 times prior peak earnings at the recession low, expanding to just over 11 times peak earnings in the first year of the bull market, and 2) favorable trend uniformity, which typically emerges almost immediately in the form of a powerful breadth thrust off of a bear market low, and is confirmed within a few weeks by much broader trend uniformity.
While there's a great deal of variation across individual market cycles, that's roughly the
historical average for a 5.25 year market cycle: a 135 % gain, a 30 % loss, and a 65 % full - cycle return (about 10 % compounded annually, with the full - cycle return coming in at
less than half of the bull market gain).
Assume also that by 2010, the price / peak earnings multiple simply touches its
historical average of 14 (forget that the typical multiple has been
less than 10 when earnings have been at the top of that peak - to - peak growth channel - let's just assume the multiple touches 14).
The balance of opinion on investment receded closer to its
historical average, indicating that plans to increase spending over the next 12 months are somewhat
less widespread
than in the previous two surveys (Chart 3).
Using the
historical archive that powers Bet Labs, I wanted to look at games where one pitcher's walk rate was above
average (
less than 7.7 %) and the other pitcher's was below
average (more
than 7.7 %).
The ultimate defensive aim of the team is to concede
less goals across an entire season, with
historical averages correlating a «goals conceded» tally of
less than thirty to achieve Champion's League qualification in the English Premier League and to challenge for the title.
DePreSys's predictions for 10 years on from the date of the
historical data were on
average only 19 per cent more or
less than the actual numbers (Nature Geoscience, DOI: 10.1038 / ngeo1004).
It is best to find a price - to - earnings ratio that is certainly
less than 17, which is the
historical average.
Excluding the bubble period since mid-1995, the
average historical Shiller P / E has actually been
less than 15.
Current S&P 500 dividend yield is about 1.9 %, which is
less than the typical 3 %
historical average over the last century.
That puts the current rates at
less than 50 % of their
historical average.
Both are
less than half the rate's
historical average of 4.7 percent.
Since the current payout ratios are slightly higher
than the company's
historical average, investors should probably expect annual dividend growth that's slightly
less than EPS and FCF growth, along the lines of 6 % to 8 % a year.
As the chart reveals, today's per century trends are dominated by cooling for the different time periods; today's trends are multiple times below prior period,
historical highs; the 5, 8 and 10 - year trends are definitely below the
average modern trend (1950 through 2013); and all the trends are significantly
less than those reached 15 years ago (see black dotted lines for year - end 1998 trend levels).
The study then morphed into one which had to show that the
historical forcing had an overall weighted
average efficacy
less than unity.
More
than half of respondents say lending is just as stringent as a year ago, while 23 percent say it is more stringent; 20 percent say it is
less stringent but not near
historical averages.
That's
less than the 3 million and 2.7 million jobs added in 2014 and 2015, respectively, but still above the
historical average.