Sentences with phrase «level valuation measures»

So why look market - level valuation measures?

Not exact matches

The Hang Seng China AH Premium Index, which measures the valuation gap for companies listed on both mainland exchanges and in Hong Kong, is near its highest level since March 2009, indicating a widening disconnect.

The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its reasonable valuation levels and largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures.

The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, reasonable valuation levels, largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures and notable return on equity.

The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its reasonable valuation levels, expanding profit margins, largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures and notable return on equity.

The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures and reasonable valuation levels.

Moderate interest rates were associated with a whole range of subsequent returns over the following decade, and we know that those outcomes were 90 % correlated with the level of valuations at the beginning of those periods (on reliable measures such as market cap / GDP, price / revenue, Tobin's Q, the margin - adjusted Shiller P / E, and others we've presented over time - see Ockham's Razor and the Market Cycle).

Along with the steepest equity valuations in U.S. history outside of 1929 and 2000 (on measures that are actually reliably correlated with subsequent market returns), private and public debt burdens have reached the most extreme levels in history.

The economic gains and market returns that emerged during the Reagan Administration began from a starting point of 10.8 % unemployment, a current account surplus, and market valuations that - on the most historically reliable measures - were less than one - quarter of present levels.

With the S&P 500 within about 8 % of its highest level in history, with historically reliable valuation measures at obscene levels, implying near - zero 10 - 12 year S&P 500 nominal total returns; with an extended period of extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions replaced by deterioration in market internals that signal a clear shift toward risk - aversion among investors; with credit spreads on low - grade debt blowing out to multi-year highs; and with leading economic measures deteriorating rapidly, we continue to classify market conditions within the most hostile return / risk profile we identify — a classification that has been observed in only about 9 % of history.

Last week, the U.S. equity market climbed to the steepest valuation level in history, based on the valuation measures most highly correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 10 - 12 year total returns, across a century of market cycles.

At present, the valuation measures that we find best correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 total returns are at the most offensive levels in history, matching or eclipsing the 1929 and 2000 extremes.

Although Wall Street continues to assert that valuations are «reasonable given the level of interest rates,» keep in mind that the most reliable measures of valuation imply negative 10 - 12 year total returns for the S&P 500.

The recent market cycle has extended much further, but it has also brought the most historically reliable measures of valuation to obscene levels.

Our actual expectation is that the completion of the current market cycle is likely to wipe out the entire total return of the S&P 500 — in excess of Treasury bill returns — all the way back to roughly October 1997; an outcome that would require a market retreat no larger than it experienced in the past two cycles, and that would not even carry historically reliable valuation measures to materially undervalued levels (see When You Look Back On This Moment In History).

In our 1Q2015 letter, we noted that equity - market valuations were at dangerous levels by three different measures: the CAPE ratio, the Q - ratio, and the Buffett indicator, which are discussed at length in our last letter.

Among the valuation measures having the strongest correlation with actual subsequent market returns, current levels are actually within 10 % of the March 2000 extreme.

On a wide range of historically reliable measures (having a nearly 90 % correlation with actual subsequent S&P 500 total returns), we estimate current valuations to be fully 118 % above levels associated with historically normal subsequent returns in stocks.

On valuation measures most reliably correlated with actual subsequent market returns (a test that is never imposed on popular measures), current valuations now exceed 1929 levels.

That's fine, but understand that through most of the period prior to the 1960's, interest rates regularly visited levels similar to the present, yet these same measures of stock valuations typically resided at well below half of present levels.

The Fed might be able to stir things up next week, but despite the extremely high level of the most valuable valuation measures (CAPE, P / S...) and the weak market internals, the price action makes a break - out to new highs very likely here.

As of last week, the Market Climate for stocks was mixed - valuations remain unfavorable, technical action was mixed but tenuous, with various indices flirting with widely observed levels of support and resistance (e.g. the 1100 level on the S&P 500), while leading measures of economic activity remain decidedly unfavorable.

This makes it a conservative measure of market valuation, so very high levels properly merit concern.

The current valuation of the S&P 500 is lofty by almost any measure, both for the aggregate market as well as the median stock: (1) The P / E ratio; (2) the current P / E expansion cycle; (3) EV / Sales; (4) EV / EBITDA; (5) Free Cash Flow yield; (6) Price / Book as well as the ROE and P / B relationship; and compared with the levels of (6) inflation; (7) nominal 10 - year Treasury yields; and (8) real interest rates.

On the basis of valuation measures most tightly related to actual subsequent long - term market returns, we also estimate that the S&P 500 is likely to be lower 12 years from now, compared with current levels, though dividend income may push the total return just over zero on that horizon.

His measure of valuation P / E10, which is the best that I have found so far, is still at 1929 levels, around 27.

Note that on the basis of this measure, expected 12 - year S&P 500 total returns associated with current valuation levels are negative, and even if one was to shift the blue line up somewhat closer to the red line in recent years, the associated return expectation would still be close to zero (which is what I actually expect based on MarketCap / GVA and other historically reliable measures).

Today's valuations, as measured by P / E10, are twice the historically typical level of 14 to 15.

Almost all of the factors and smart beta strategies exhibit a negative relationship between starting valuation and subsequent performance whether we use the aggregate measure or P / B to define relative valuation.9 Out of 192 tests shown here, not a single test has the «wrong» sign: in every case, the cheaper the factor or strategy gets, relative to its historical average, the more likely it is to deliver positive performance.10 For most factors and strategies (two - thirds of the 192 tests) the relationship holds with statistical significance for horizons ranging from one month to five years and using both valuation measures (44 % of these results are significant at the 1 % level).

Low beta is the primary exception in our results, showing only one instance of statistical significance — at the 10 % level for the two - year horizon (matching the half - life), using the blended valuation measure — over the entire combination of horizons and two valuation measures.

For instance, the blue dot on the value factor scatterplot suggests that prior to March 2016 the valuation level of 0.14 — meaning the value portfolio was 14 % as expensive as the growth portfolio measured by price - to - book ratio, and lower than the historical norm of 21 % relative valuation — would have delivered an average annualized alpha of 8.1 % over the next five years.

Our actual expectation is that the completion of the current market cycle is likely to wipe out the entire total return of the S&P 500 — in excess of Treasury bill returns — all the way back to roughly October 1997; an outcome that would require a market retreat no larger than it experienced in the past two cycles, and that would not even carry historically reliable valuation measures to materially undervalued levels (see When You Look Back On This Moment In History).

5, No. 2: pp. 54 - 63 DOI: 10.3905 / joi.5.2.54, also examined the link between equity returns at a market level and valuation measures.

My point is that there are a variety of highly predictive, methodologically distinct measures of market - level valuation (I used the Shiller PE and Tobin's q, but GNP or GDP - to - total market capitalization below work equally as well) that point to overvaluation.

FASB also clarified existing disclosure requirements relating to the levels of disaggregation for fair value measurement and inputs and valuation techniques used to measure fair value.

For example, markets entered a period of extreme valuation by many measures in 1994 and continued to push higher for 6 more years before finally succumbing to valuation levels that were, by some measures, more than twice as high as any other period in history.

The inputs and valuation techniques used to measure fair value of the Funds» investments are summarized into three levels as described in the hierarchy below:

And it's not just U.S. indexes like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 that are at elevated levels, other measures of stock valuations are at or near record highs.

The vast majority of analysts assume that if a measure of valuation (P / E, P / S, P / B, etc.) reaches some specific level it means that:

Meanwhile, going into 2015, nearly every traditional measure of valuation (e.g, price - to - earnings P / E, price - to - sales P / S, CAPE PE10, Tobin's Q, market - cap - to - GDP, etc.) placed stocks at extremely overvalued levels.