The increased CO2 will behave exactly the same regardless of
the levels of aerosols in the atmosphere, changing the energy balance and warming the planet.
Not exact matches
Indeed, conventional wisdom held that higher
levels of aerosol pollution
in the
atmosphere should cool the earth's climate because
aerosols can increase cloudiness; they not only reduce precipitation, which raises the water content
in clouds, but they also increase the size
of the individual water droplets, which
in turn causes more warming sunlight to be reflected back into space.
And while researchers are still striving to fully understand the health and environmental impact
of increased
levels of secondary organic
aerosols in the
atmosphere, studies have linked exposure to outdoor
aerosols generally to morbidity and mortality outcomes.
During ISDAC, they collected an unprecedented
level of data and detailed observations on Arctic clouds and
aerosols, those tiny particles
in the
atmosphere that act as seeds for cloud droplets and ice crystals.
The war period and rapid economic growth that followed resulted
in very high
levels of heat blocking
aerosols in the
atmosphere.
I'm pretty sure you can get the grey version
of that into a strat - cooling / trop - warming situation if you pick the strat absorbers right, but Andy is certainly right that non-grey effects play a crucial role
in explaining quantitatively what is going on
in the real
atmosphere (that's connected with the non-grey explanation for the anomalously cold tropopause which I have
in Chapter 4, and also with the reason that
aerosols do not produce stratospheric cooling, and everything depends a lot on what
level you are looking at).
The second study meanwhile looked at how
aerosol emissions impact the Earth's temperature through a phenomenon the researchers call «transient climate sensitivity,» or how much
of the Earth's temperature will change when the amount
of carbon dioxide
in the
atmosphere reaches twice its
level during the pre-industrial times.
How do we know what
levels of aerosols existed
in what zones
of the
atmosphere going back into history?
Nations collectively to begin to reduce sharply global atmospheric emissions
of greenhouse gases and absorbing
aerosols, with the goal
of urgently halting their accumulation
in the
atmosphere and holding atmospheric
levels at their lowest practicable value;
One hears
of dire predictions
of sea -
level rises which don't seem to be eventuating,
of stasis
in global temperatures that weren't predicted,
of claimed ad - hoc appeals to
aerosol effects, etc., and that's without going into the general
atmosphere of hostility to people like me who genuinely think the case for harmful AGW effects looks shaky.
Natural Variability Doesn't Account for Observed Temperature Increase
In it's press release announcement, NASA points out that while there are other factors than greenhouse gases contributing to the amount of warming observed — changes in the sun's irradiance, oscillations of sea surface temperatures in the tropics, changes in aerosol levels in the atmosphere — these factors are not sufficient to account for the temperature increases observed since 188
In it's press release announcement, NASA points out that while there are other factors than greenhouse gases contributing to the amount
of warming observed — changes
in the sun's irradiance, oscillations of sea surface temperatures in the tropics, changes in aerosol levels in the atmosphere — these factors are not sufficient to account for the temperature increases observed since 188
in the sun's irradiance, oscillations
of sea surface temperatures
in the tropics, changes in aerosol levels in the atmosphere — these factors are not sufficient to account for the temperature increases observed since 188
in the tropics, changes
in aerosol levels in the atmosphere — these factors are not sufficient to account for the temperature increases observed since 188
in aerosol levels in the atmosphere — these factors are not sufficient to account for the temperature increases observed since 188
in the
atmosphere — these factors are not sufficient to account for the temperature increases observed since 1880.
This temperature plateau is very likely due to increased
levels of particulates (or «
aerosols»)
in the
atmosphere reflecting solar radiation back into space.