Note that while the BEST approach is based on correlations, they are correlations of variables with known causal relationships (i.e. an increased greenhouse effect is known to cause global warming), although they do not appear to have considered some important influences
like human aerosol emissions or the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
Not exact matches
Each model had run simulations that included anthropogenic climate influences
like human - released greenhouse gases and
aerosols as well as simulations run without those
human influences.
In particular,
human - induced
aerosols like soot and combustion particulates actually work the opposite, reducing the amount of precipitation clouds can form.
However there are other first order drivers of climate including natural ones
like solar variation and
human driven ones
like land use change,
aerosols and soot.
Aerosols, or microscopic particles
like soot or black carbon in the air, occur naturally but have also been increasing due to
human activities since the industrial revolution.
The hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica was created by
human - produced chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that came from things
like aerosol cans and air - conditioners and refrigerators.
Somewhere there should also be a cost in
human health bill for coal and gas — related to other aspects of fossil fuel epidemiology —
like poisoning from mercury from coal emissions or asthma from
aerosols from gas plants.
Natural gas produces almost no
aerosol pollution, and this is good for
human health and the regional environment, but for climate change could be
like opening a dam full of water into the valley downstream full of people.
If we modify the first statement to include other
human influences
like methane and
aerosols the limit of the second statement is slightly reduced, perhaps to 0.7 C.
In other words, the slowed surface warming isn't a result of a smaller global energy imbalance due to factors
like increased cooling from
human aerosol emissions.
The failure to actually reduce global emissions has meant that all possibilities are now on the table, including some that sound
like premises from a science - fiction novel:
Humans could sequester carbon dioxide by removing it from the air through technologies that mimic trees, or we could spray water droplets in the lower atmosphere to reflect light and heat back to space, or we could seed sulfur
aerosols in the stratosphere to do the same.