As climate scientist Michael Mann says, global warming is
like loaded dice.
Not exact matches
The trouble is that,
like every on - screen male, Stillman allows himself to fall under her spell, and the result is a film whose dramatic
dice is so
loaded in its anti-heroine's favour that it fatally undermines her victory.
In 1988, James E. Hansen, the NASA climate scientist who, through much of his career, has pressed elected officials to limit greenhouse gas emissions, constructed «
loaded» cardboard
dice for a Senate hearing, to illustrate that we were, in essence, tipping the climate system toward ever higher odds of unpleasant events
like droughts and flooding rains.
Concepts
like «
loading the
dice» create images that lay people such as myself can intuitively understand.
It reads
like it's less likely to roll a six with
dice loaded to prefer sixes.
This is how I understand it (correct me if I am wrong): It's
like with increasing GHGs in the atmosphere the
dice are increasing
loaded for such record - breaking events, but under the null hypothesis (that increasing GHGs have no effect) there is this very long long tail of possibility.
As climatologist Michael Mann says, it's
like throwing
loaded dice; you might have gotten two sixes naturally in any given throw, but over time they'll turn up more than they should randomly.
Just as
loading the
dice with more weight on one side increases the likelihood that the opposite number will appear, so too does
loading the atmosphere with carbon dioxide increase the likelihood that winters
like the one behind us will greet our future lives.
NASA's James Hansen
likes to call it «
loading the climate
dice.»
You would stop playing if you had some other, indirect evidence that the
dice are
loaded (say,
like Kerry Emanuel telling you after having x-rayed the
dice).
Perhaps I'm biased because I'm a physicist not a statistician, but to me it is clear that physical evidence,
like our physical understanding of how CO2 affects SST and how SST affects hurricanes, gives you warning of the
loaded dice long before you can prove it from the damage statistics.