The IPCC AR4 report says anthropogenic aerosols are a net negative forcing (just
like volcanic aerosols).
Not exact matches
Like the particles emitted during
volcanic eruptions, sulfate
aerosols cool the Earth by blocking a portion of the sun's rays.
The models, which factor in natural effects such as solar winds and
volcanic eruptions, along with anthropogenic forcings
like greenhouse gases and
aerosols, match these precipitation variations accurately in trend and reasonably well in magnitude.
Since
aerosols last much longer in the stratosphere than they do in the rainy troposphere, the amount of
aerosol - forming substance that would need to be injected into the stratosphere annually is far less than what would be needed to give a similar cooling effect in the troposphere, though so far as the stratospheric
aerosol burden goes, it would still be a bit
like making the Earth a permanently
volcanic planet (think of a Pinatubo or two a year, forever).
Pekka, place show me a Thermometer record which shows anything
like the temperature change shown in that figures, as a result of
volcanic aerosols.
In effect, these particles — whether
aerosols or kitchen table salt — could act
like natural
aerosols that cool the planet after a
volcanic eruption.
Robock found that the forcing which most closely mirrored the actual temperature observations was
volcanic aerosols: «
volcanic dust is the only external forcing that produces a model response significantly
like the observations».
Li et al., 2017 (DOI: 10.1016 / j.quascirev.2017.01.009): «Additionally, increased El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strength (possibly El Ni ~ no -
like phases) during drying periods, increased
volcanic eruptions and the resulting
aerosol load during cooling periods, as well as high volumes of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4 during the recent warming periods, may also play a role in partly affecting the climatic variability in NC, superimposing on the overall solar dominated long - term control.»
This increase is not instantaneous as there are many other drivers
likes aerosols, sun,
volcanic eruptions and also the natural variability of the climatic system.
Turner's work, in particular, which often depicts brightly colored sunsets and emphasized natural light, can be used to roughly estimate
aerosol optical depth — that is, the amount of particles
like dust,
volcanic ash, smoke and sea salts in the atmosphere — at the time the painting was made.
They treated
volcanic forcings just
like all the other
aerosol forcings, not a word about how they were «expected» to be low.
What does seem to be known is that
aerosols fall out of the lower atmosphere (as high as they can be launched with conventional bombs) in days, and persist for less than 2 years when launched into the stratosphere by a major
volcanic event
like Pinatubo which was equivalent to several H bombs.
There are perhaps good reasons for this
like IPCC treatment of
aerosols and a subsequent
volcanic eruption (but forecast failures always tell us why they were wrong, which is part of their value).