The study stops short of attributing California's latest drought to changes in Arctic sea ice, partly because there are other phenomena that play a role,
like warm sea surface temperatures and changes to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, an atmospheric climate pattern that typically shifts every 20 to 30 years.
Not exact matches
So this effect could either be the result of natural variability in Earth's climate, or yet another effect of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases
like water vapor trapping more heat and thus
warming sea -
surface temperatures.
A subset of Earth System Models (ESMs) project that El Niño -
like conditions will progressively increase in coming decades as
sea -
surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific
warm, implying increased drought and forest dieback in the Amazon.
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the
surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any
warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a
warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks
like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while
sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be
warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the
sea prevents much
temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
Seems to me the debate about AGHG global
warming and increasing TC frequency / intensity / duration boils down to the fact that as
sea surface temperatures, as well as deeper water
temperatures rise, the wallop of any TC over
warmer seas without mitigating circumstances
like wind sheer and dry air off land masses entrained in the cyclone will likely be much more devastating.
------------------------------------ And here's what the proxies vs. the highly adjusted instrumental data that have been hopelessly corrupted by removing thousands of rural stations and keeping urban stations, moving rural sites to airports, «mostly made up» SH
sea surface temperatures, cooling down the 1930s and 1940s artificially to remove 0.5 C from the early 20th century
warming... look
like.
However, during La Niña Modoki the anomaly of the
sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern Pacific isn't affected by cooling but by
warming just
like western equatorial Pacific, while a cold anomaly affects the central equatorial Pacific (Niño 3.4).
The best way to envision the relation between ENSO and precipitation over East Africa is to regard the Indian Ocean as a mirror of the Pacific Ocean
sea surface temperature anomalies [much
like the Western Hemisphere
Warm Pool creates such a SST mirror with the Atlantic Ocean too]: during a La Niña episode, waters in the eastern Pacific are relatively cool as strong trade winds blow the tropically Sun -
warmed waters far towards the west.
It looks
like the sub-
sea permafrost is failing due to
warmer ocean
temperatures and allowing methane to escape; because the Siberian
Sea is very shallow the methane isn't oxidized as it travels to the
surface.
To me it looks
like this shift will be the «team's» new tactic to keep the notion of global
warming alive, especially if the pause in
warming (or even slight cooling) of the «globally and annually averaged land and
sea surface temperature» lasts another few decades.
In his presentation, Gerry Bell,
Like Lautenbacher, associated conditions since 1995 to «multi-decadal signal along with
warmer than normal
sea surface temperatures.»
However, ocean
temperatures have
warmed almost everywhere on the planet, with 0.5 ºC being the global mean rise of
sea surface temperature, hence Trenberth's reasonable estimate that this much is the contribution from global forcings
like CO2.