Sentences with phrase «likeliest warming scenario»

Not exact matches

The IPCC's climate report says that the most extreme scenarios of future warming are looking less likely — but this doesn't change the big picture

For example, in a simulated world where the atmospheric CO2 levels were double today's values — a scenario many scientists believe likely — models predict that Earth will warm by more than 2 °C.

They then compared how 10 different vegetation classes, ranging from grasses to trees, would likely respond in the Arctic under these different future warming scenarios.

To be consistent with recent observations, anthropogenic warming is likely to lie in the range 0.1 to 0.2 °C / decade over the next few decades under the IS92a scenario.

Third, with our ∼ 1 °C scenario it is more likely that the biosphere and soil will be able to sequester a substantial portion of the anthropogenic fossil fuel CO2 carbon than in the case of 2 °C or more global warming.

The team also have a separate project, called Climate feedbacks from wetlands and permafrost thaw in a warming world (CLIFFTOP), which aims to quantity the amount of methane likely to be released from thawing permafrost methane emissions under 1.5 C and 2C scenarios.

If these scenarios are correct, then the settlement pattern in the Monte Verde area during this period was probably just one of several with small groups of people seasonally adapted to cold parkland and boreal environments, most likely during the warmer months.

«To be consistent with recent observations, anthropogenic warming is likely to lie in the range 0.1 to 0.2 Â °C / decade over the next few decades under the IS92a scenario.»

To be consistent with recent observations, anthropogenic warming is likely to lie in the range 0.1 to 0.2 °C / decade over the next few decades under the IS92a scenario.

Under all RCP scenarios the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed during 1971 — 2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets.

Other forcings, including the growth and decay of massive Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheets, changes in atmospheric dust, and changes in the ocean circulation, are not likely to have the same kind of effect in a future warming scenario as they did at glacial times.

Another, possibly best case scenario, shows that if global warming did not exceed the 2 degree Celsius benchmark, the millennial sea - level rise from the melting of Antarctic ice could likely be restricted to a few meters.

«However,» write the authors, «some scenarios in our set bring warming back below 1.5 Celsius by 2100: a first scenario does so with a probability of about 50 percent, and a second scenario with a «likely» chance (better than 66 percent).»

The science is clear to me and to most experts in the various fields associated with climate science: Humans are causing most of the observed global warming in the past several decades and, if we continue emitting GHGs under a «business as usual» scenario, it will become increasingly difficult and costly to adapt to the changes that are likely to occur.

However, even this scenario provides only a «likely» avoidance of keeping warming below two degrees Celsius.

It just does not worry me as much as the more likely scenario that the Earth is becoming a more dangerous, more populated, warmer place.

Emission scenarios and model predictions may overstate the risk, but they are equally likely to underestimate it.There is some evidence that this warming has already begun.

The IPCC estimates a likely upper bound for sea level rise, for instance, at about a meter, but under much stronger warming scenarios.

> Advances in climate change modelling now enable best estimates and likely assessed uncertainty ranges to be given for projected warming for different emission scenarios.

«It is very likely that the rate of global mean sea level rise during the 21st century will exceed the rate observed during 1971 — 2010 for all Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios due to increases in ocean warming and loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets.

«President Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, combined with the repeal of domestic actions resulting in halting the decline in U.S. emissions, will likely make it more difficult and costly overall to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goal of holding warming well below 2 °C, and limiting it to 1.5 °C,» said Bill Hare, a climate scientist and CEO of Climate Analytics, a group that analyzes climate change scenarios.

... that a range of 2,050 — 2,100 Gt CO2 emissions from year 2000 onwards cause a most likely CO2 - induced warming of 2 °C: in the idealized scenarios they consider that meet this criterion, between 1,550 and 1,950 Gt CO2 are emitted over the years 2000 to 2049.

Under the worst - case scenario investigated, if pollution continues unabated, and if seas respond to ongoing warming by rising at the fastest rates considered likely, sea levels could rise more than 4 feet this century alone, wiping out coastal infrastructure and driving communities inland.

«I continue to believe that warming of Earth's surface temperatures from rising concentrations of greenhouse gases carries risks that society must take seriously,» he wrote, «even if we are lucky and (as my work seems to suggest) the most catastrophic warming scenarios are a bit less likely.»

Navy Admiral Samuel J. Locklear III, in an interview at a Cambridge hotel Friday after he met with scholars at Harvard and Tufts universities, said significant upheaval related to the warming planet «is probably the most likely thing that is going to happen... that will cripple the security environment, probably more likely than the other scenarios we all often talk about.»

Even if climate skeptics are right about the most likely scenario being a moderate warming, the possibility remains that the unlikely will occur.

Many climate skeptics argue that the most likely scenario for global warming is that human emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases will cause mild warming, a geographic mixture of winners and losers, and what problems arise can be met by adaptation.

Simultaneously the consensus science tells us that even if voluntary emission reduction commitments are perfectly implemented (an optimistic scenario), warming is likely to reach 3 ˚C to 4 ˚C in the course of the century, and quite possibly much higher.

New research has found that transport of heat to the deep layers in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans could be one of the likely scenarios to the slowdown in global warming.

«Our results imply that, for any future emissions scenario, future warming is likely to be substantially lower than the central computer model - simulated level projected by the IPCC, and highly unlikely to exceed that level.»

In a 4 °C global warming scenario, the socio - economic impact of river floods in Europe is likely to triple before the end of the century (Alfieri et al. 2015b).

From the response to ocean warming, which is likely to dominate the dynamic Antarctic contribution, the 90 % uncertainty reaches up to 0.37 m by 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario.

In fact a comparison with other IEA scenarios puts the EIA Reference Case in line with at least 5 degrees C of warming, a level of warming that would likely mean disaster for global civilization.

The ABC report never considered whether the drastic GNP losses associated with steps that would be predicted to make a significant difference would cause more death, poverty, and destruction than the likeliest global warming scenarios.

The most likely scenario is that suggested by the climate model in Meehl (2011) & Meehl (2013)- the majority of this slowing of surface temperatures is due to natural variabilty (deep ocean warming) superimposed atop a long - term warming trend (greenhouse gas - induced warming of the surface ocean).

[I'm trying to make sense of two apparently contradictory bits of model output: one which says that warming is likely to produce more El Nino - type events, another which implies that either frequency or intensity or both are likely to increase under the same scenario.]

The elements are: (1) the amount of temperaturechange since 1850; (2) whether the change is in the range of natural variability or is attributable to humans; (3) the amount of warming that greenhouse gases (CO2 and equivalents) will warm the Earth in the future; and whether for the most likely scenarios, there are more losers than winners and if the change is just different.

Rather, the study stated that, out of the range of warming projections outlined by the United Nations» Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), temperature records suggest that at present time the «middle - of - the - road warming scenario» is more likely than the most severe warming projections.

Although projected CO2 concentrations in a «methane economy» are low in relation to other scenarios, the projections confirm that global climate warming is likely to be a major planetary concern throughout the twenty - first century.

Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause tropical cyclones globally to be more intense on average (by 2 to 11 % according to model projections for an IPCC mid-range scenario).

A more likely scenario for interpretation of the observed warming of the early 20th century might be a smaller (and therefore more likely) realization of internal variability coupled with additional external radiative forcings.

(This is probably because if theres 4 degrees of warming by 2100 most likely scenario so if slowdown is roughly linear this is about a 50 % slow down, which would be very concerning).

Best estimates (red dots) and likely range (red bars) of warming by 2090 - 2099 relative to 1980 - 1999 for all six illustrative SRES scenarios and best estimates (coloured dots) for SRES B1, A1B and A2 by 2020 - 2029, 2050 - 2059 and 2080 - 2089 (IPCC, 2007, Figure SPM.5).

They explain that termination shock is most likely to occur if a solar geoengineering effort aimed at suppressing a large amount of warming — say, the 0.5 degrees Celsius per decade expected in the high - end (RPC 8.5) carbon emissions scenario — was phased out suddenly and completely.

For a warming over Greenland of 5.5 °C, consistent with mid-range stabilisation scenarios (see Figure 26), the Greenland ice sheet is likely to contribute about 3 m in 1,000 years.

Table 3.1 shows best estimates and likely ranges for global average surface air warming for the six SRES marker emissions scenarios (including climate - carbon cycle feedbacks).