But the new document also acknowledges that climate science still contains uncertainties, including
the likely magnitude of the warming for a given level of emissions, the rate at which the ocean will rise, and the likelihood that plants and animals will be driven to extinction.
Not exact matches
These results demonstrate the
magnitude of trade - offs
likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to
warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant clade D zooxanthellae.
Such an extremely
warm winter in Earth's northern extremity is still a rare event but climate change has «made the event more
likely by orders
of magnitude», the authors tell Carbon Brief.
This task is made easier by not quantifying the
likely magnitude of CH4 deposits in the Arctic, not specifying CH4 sources (hydrates, sedimentary gas, yedoma and resumption
of biota decay), and not examining the differing vulnerability
of those deposits to global
warming in general and Arctic amplification in particular.
Have you considered that the economic risks
of drastic carbon cutting and therefore access to cheap energy for developing economies, not to mention distractions from real and present infrastructure and land - management issues (a very
likely factor in the recent Pakistan floods) under the catch - all label
of global
warming, may in fact represent a blind alley that contributes to a fatality risk for many
of the world's poorest people
of at least an order
of magnitude greater than 1 %?
This is an order
of magnitude smaller than the
likely warming induced by anthropogenic emissions over the same time period.
Because I write here a lot, the reasons that I am a «lukewarmer» and «skeptical»
of strong claims about the
magnitude and dangers
of CO2 - induced
warming and the need for or
likely effectiveness
of public policies are public knowledge already.
I agree that reduction in snow or ice cover resulting from
warming constitutes a
likely slow positive feedback, but its
magnitude may be quite small, at least for the modest changes in surface temperature that can be expected to arise if sensitivity is in fact fairly low, so the Forster / Gregory 06 results may nevertheless be a close approximation to a measurement
of equilibrium climate sensitivity.
In 1992, we had just completed the first IPCC assessment report, here was their conclusion: «The size
of this
warming is broadly consistent with predictions
of climate models, but it is also
of the same
magnitude as natural climate variability... The unequivocal detection
of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not
likely for a decade or more.
And there's also the small issue
of the rate at which humans are
warming the globe, quite apart from the actual
magnitude of the temperatures involved... Most
of the work estimating extinction rates though is
likely to be conservative in its conclusions because there are many confounding factors, skewed to a deleterious synergy, that are only starting to be understood.
Although it is important to reduce the remaining climate uncertainties, such as the
magnitude of the impacts
of short - lived pollutants, it does not change the fact that CO2 is very
likely the driving force behind the current global
warming, or that if we double the amount
of CO2 in the atmosphere from pre-industrial levels, the planet will
likely warm in the range
of 2 to 4.5 °C.
The
magnitude and pace
of the recent Arctic sea - ice decline and ocean
warming is «unprecedented» in at least the past 1,500 years and
likely much longer, according to a federal report released Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Using temperature readings from the past 100 years, 1,000 computer simulations and the evidence left in ancient tree rings, Duke University scientists announced yesterday that «the
magnitude of future global
warming will
likely fall well short
of current highest predictions.»
That panel's first assessment report in 1990 concluded that «the size
of the
warming over the last century is...
of the same
magnitude as natural climate variability» and that «the unequivocal detection
of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not
likely for a decade or more.»