However, there is at least one major difference between this kind of market research and political polling: Consumers are less
likely than voters to link together various characteristics when making choices.
UKIP voters are less
likely than voters generally, and far less likely than Conservative voters, to be above - average earners.
This group prefers Cameron to Miliband, and is more optimistic than most about the economy, but less
likely than voters as a whole to trust the Tories on schools or the NHS.
Early primary polls showed that his supporters were more
likely than voters overall to be poor, white, without higher education, and from rural counties or small towns.
Not exact matches
The so - called kids» table is for the lower polling candidates, those with support from less
than 3 percent of
likely Republican
voters.
As such, it is
likely that the center - right candidate from Forza Italia, Paolo Romani, is elected due to the alliance gaining more
voters than the Five Star Movement back on the March 4 vote.
Known for being a retirement - friendly area, residents here are more
likely to choose a Caribbean vacation over Europe or Asia, they ski less
than any of their peers in the top 5 richest neighbourhoods in B.C., and are staunch Conservative
voters, with 60 % voting Tory.
But numerous courts have found that in - person
voter fraud is exceedingly rare and isolated, and that some such measures are more
likely to disproportionately suppress legitimate minority turnout
than to prevent
voter fraud.
Historically, young
voters are less
likely to turn out
than their parents.
Although Chinese rulers do not have to face
voters to stay in office, as Trump will
likely do in four years, they have a far more intuitive sense that it is their ability to deliver economic prosperity rather
than their ideological purity that will keep them in power.
Voters are also less loyal
than ever to traditional parties — they are more
likely to switch votes to a rival party or an entirely new one.
Additionally, 19 % of
voters identified they would be less
likely to vote for a candidate who had strong religious beliefs other
than their own.
Tea Party supporters are «much more
likely than registered
voters as a whole to say that their religion is the most important factor in determining their opinions on... social issues» like abortion and same - sex marriage, according to the Pew analysis.
Rasmussen's April survey also showed that
likely voters were more
likely to describe themselves as «pro-choice»
than «pro-life,» by a 51 «40 margin.
Less
than half the state's eligible
voters bother to register, but Mormons almost always do, which gives them about a quarter of the
likely turnout.»
Plus, talking up religious liberty is
likely less of a turnoff for moderate
voters than is talk about bans on abortion and gay marriage, traditionally the top concerns of religious conservatives.
In general, Democratic
voters seem less concerned with a candidate's faith life, though more who believed Clinton was religious were
likely to think she would also be a good president (69 %)
than those who didn't believe she was religious but would make a good leader (54 %).
«A
voter is more
likely to be struck by lightening
than they are to impersonate another
voter at the polls.»
Trump's campaign was operating with a different
likely -
voter model, one that turned out to be more accurate
than the one based on historical demographic turnout.
For example, BNP or UKIP
voters would get to vote more
than once because their second choice would be most
likely to be taken into account first.
For political campaigns, this change means making room in television budgets for additional creative, so that media consultants could run a different ad aimed at persuadable swing
voters than they send to
likely base
voters.
The latest New York Times / CBS News poll, conducted last week, showed
likely voters in the same age group supporting Mr. Romney by a 15 - point margin — even wider
than the gap on Election Day 2008.
If we view women as rational
voters who
likely weigh any number of different issues that they find important before making a decision on a slate of candidates,
than this example is anything but puzzling.
While there is
likely a lot of truth to that, there is also a local backstory
than enabled a serious Democratic candidate to emerge in a district where Republicans outnumber registered Democrats by more
than 10,000
voters.
We found some tentative evidence to suggest Labour
voters had been less
likely to actually vote
than predicted but, even if this was the case, the effect would have been very modest.
Looking at medians rather
than averages produces similar results to midterm years:
Likely voter polls have been unbiased, whereas registered
voter polls have had a median Democratic bias of 2 percentage points.
71 % Against Player Protests During National Anthem Nearly Half Watching Less Football Mainly Because of Political Protests 55 % Say Buffalo Bills Should Punish LeSean McCoy for Sunday «Stretches» More
Voters Agree with Trump's Statements than Disagree 82 % Want Less Politics During Sporting Events (Buffalo, NY)- Western New York voters overwhelmingly oppose the player protests during the national anthem that have swept the league recently, according to a recent survey released this morning of likely 2018 Western New York v
Voters Agree with Trump's Statements
than Disagree 82 % Want Less Politics During Sporting Events (Buffalo, NY)- Western New York
voters overwhelmingly oppose the player protests during the national anthem that have swept the league recently, according to a recent survey released this morning of likely 2018 Western New York v
voters overwhelmingly oppose the player protests during the national anthem that have swept the league recently, according to a recent survey released this morning of
likely 2018 Western New York
votersvoters.
Ordinary
voters will only be alarmed if they think Tory policy is actually more destructive rather
than being worried if a few nurses and policemen lose their jobs (they're far more
likely to worry about their own jobs and security
than that of public sector workers).
The Jung supporter was clearly walking around the poll site, according to eye witnesses, and «assisting» Korean
voters — but more
than likely this «assistance» came with encouragement to vote for Jung.
The challenge for Labour is that most splitting occurs between ideologically adjacent parties, and because less partisan Labour
voters are more
likely than Conservatives to split their vote.
«Millionaires are more
likely riding to work in Escalades or Town Cars
than on the No. 6 train, but New York City
voters say that's all the more reason they should pony up funding to make commuting easier for the rest of us,» said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
After all, Labour have got more seats to lose
than the Tories and disillusioned Labour
voters are
likely to be highly responsive to a «Mansion Tax».
The «psychographic» picture Cambridge ostensibly provides to a campaign is the ability to tailor a specific message based on personality type — angry, fearful, optimistic and so forth — rather
than simply aiming ads at
voters from
likely convivial candidates.
The Greens are currently claiming on ITV that the collapse in Lib Dem support and switch to them reflects the toxicity of their association with the Conservative Party: #BESFactCheck suggests that it is more
likely reflect the fact that
voters do not credit the Liberal Democrats with any of the major successes or the failures of the coalition government: fewer
than one in five
voters believe that the Lib Dems in government have been responsible for the upturn in the economy, changes in the NHS, changes in levels of crime, changes in levels of immigration and changes in the standards of education.
«
Likely Democratic primary
voters who were exposed to both television and online advertising viewed Chris Kelly more favorably
than voters who were exposed to television advertising only.»
Better - educated folks and broadband users were more
likely to turn to Wikipedia
than their less - educated and slower - connected brethren, meaning that the collectively - written online encyclopedia is disproportionately
likely to reach potential
voters (since voting tends to rise with education).
In that case, they're
likely throw money at poorly targeted TV campaigns rather
than spend time and resources building up a robust field operation or investing in data - modeling and
voter targeting.
With no presidential candidates on the ballot, 2010 turnout is
likely to be even lower
than average, meaning that many legislative races will turn on the decisions of a handful of
voters.
Those
voters seem much less
likely than swing
voters in the south of England to be attracted to spending - cap politics, and predictably the «Yes» camp has already seized the opportunity to remind those swing Scottish
voters in no uncertain terms about the extent of spending cuts (heavily directed on benefits to the working poor and unemployed) that staying in the UK might be expected to entail if George Osborne's plans were implemented.
Swing
voters were much more
likely than Labour supporters to see the deficit as a serious problem that must be dealt with urgently, and that the Coalition's proposed cuts were unavoidable.
More
than half of
voters, forced to choose between the three, named David Cameron as the best Prime Minister, 17 points ahead of Ed Miliband, who led only among Labour
voters and social group E (state pensioners, casual workers and those dependent on benefits — the group that is also least
likely to vote).
Tellingly, UKIP
voters were much more
likely than average to think this was true of the Tories (73 %).
My research in the marginals has consistently found 2010 Conservative
voters more
likely than 2010 Labour
voters to say they are switching to UKIP (16 % compared to 8 % in my latest round of Con - Lab marginals, released last week).
By a similar 60 - 29 percent margin,
likely voters say it «will be an expensive waste of time,» rather
than a «once in a generation opportunity to bring our State Constitution into the 21st Century,» according to a new Siena College Poll of
likely 2017 New York State
voters released last hour.
2010 Labour
voters were six times as
likely to say their view of Labour was more positive
than their view of Mr Miliband
than vice versa.
In what is
likely to be the first battle of the long election campaign, Osborne remains confident that he has made the right call and
voters are more worried by the deficit
than the size of the state.
African American
voters, 53 %, and Latino
voters, 46 %, are more
likely than white
voters, 30 %, to give de Blasio high marks.
Again, African American
voters and Latino members of the electorate are more
likely to perceive de Blasio positively
than white
voters.
Voters were twice as
likely to say their view of Mr Clegg was less favourable
than that of his party as to say it was more favourable; for Ed Miliband, the ratio is more
than three to one.
However, Labour is more cohesive
than Conservatives on this matter, and as such was probably less
likely to alienate
voters.