Sentences with phrase «likely value of climate sensitivity»

Most of these entailed hindcasting, but Hansen's 1988 model projections have exhibited some skill in a forecasting mode, despite his use of inputs now known to overestimate the most likely value of climate sensitivity.

The most likely value of climate sensitivity from the AR4 [the fourth report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] was about 3 degrees.

Not exact matches

The precise sensitivity of the climate to increasing CO2 is still fairly uncertain: 2 — 4.5 °C is a fairly wide range of likely values.

From the article: «The most likely value of equilibrium climate sensitivity based on the energy budget of the most recent decade is 2.0 °C, with a 5 — 95 % confidence interval of 1.2 — 3.9 °C»

You may not be able to «prove» such an honest estimate, but it is more likely to be correct than a value based on some estimate of short term climate sensitivity.

Some analysis of climate sensitivity has worked with a uniform prior — that's just one where all values are considered equally likely prior to incorporating our data.

Consider the implications for glacial climate of a sensitivity of twice the most likely value of 3 °C, i.e. 6 °C.

As these figures show, estimates from both models and observational data consistently find that the most likely climate sensitivity value is approximately 3 °C for a doubling of CO2.

Plugging in our possible climate sensitivity values, this gives us an expected surface temperature change of about 1 — 2.2 °C of global warming, with a most likely value of 1.4 °C.

[¶]... Basing our assessment on a combination of several independent lines of evidence, as summarised in Box 10.2 Figures 1 and 2, including observed climate change and the strength of known feedbacks simulated in GCMs, we conclude that the global mean equilibrium warming for doubling CO2, or «equilibrium climate sensitivity», is likely to lie in the range 2 °C to 4.5 °C, with a most likely value of about 3 °C.

The precise sensitivity of the climate to increasing CO2 is still fairly uncertain: 2 — 4.5 °C is a fairly wide range of likely values.

Equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely to be in the range 2 °C to 4.5 °C with a most likely value of about 3 °C, based upon multiple observational and modelling constraints.

You are correct that climate sensitivity is probably more uncertain than to < 10 %, however there is a substantial literature on why it is very likely greater than 1.5 - 2 C per doubling of CO2, while ruling out higher end values of climate sensitivity is much more difficult.

In most cases, these range from about 2 to 4.5 C per doubled CO2 within the context of our current climate — with a most likely value between 2 and 3 C. On the other hand, chapter 9 describes attempts ranging far back into paleoclimatology to relate forcings to temperature change, sometimes directly (with all the attendant uncertainties), and more often by adjusting model parameters to determine the climate sensitivity ranges that allow the models to best simulate data from the past — e.g., the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).

Using a much wider range of evidence, the IPCC puts the likely climate sensitivity range to a doubling of CO2 at 2 to 4.5 °C with a most likely value of 3 °C.

In your view, what is the likely value for climate sensitivity for global warming from doubling of CO2?

Another point worth making about the figure is that greater values of climate sensitivity likely translate into quicker evolution of the climate, all other things being equal (e.g., Bahn et al., 2011, Fig. 2).

Mark B What, you mean this bit:, we conclude that the global mean equilibrium warming for doubling CO2, or «equilibrium climate sensitivity», is likely to lie in the range 2 °C to 4.5 °C, with a most likely value of about 3 °C.

Knutti and Hegerl in the November, 2008 Natural Geoscience paper, The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth's temperature to radiation changes, says various observations favor a climate sensitivity value of about 3 degrees C, with a likely range of about 2 — 4.5 degrees C per the following graphic whereas the current IPCC uncertainty is range is between 1.5 - 4.5 degrees C.

The IPCC currently estimates the climate sensitivity at somewhere between 2 and 4.5 degrees Celsius, with a most likely value of 3 degrees Celsius.

However, our current understanding of the range of likely climate sensitivity values isn't much better than it was decades ago.

A key example of this balancing process concerns the best value of what is known as the climate sensitivity, that is the increase in global average temperature associated with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide that, unless severe mitigating action is taken, is likely to occur during the second half of the 21st century.

«Using a probabilistic setup of a reduced complexity model and an ensemble of an Earth System Model, we showed that unforced climate variability is important in the estimation of the climate sensitivity, in particular when estimating the most likely value, and more so for the equilibrium than for the transient response.

You're right that a climate sensitivity of 3 degrees is not derived from first principles, but from various observed climate responses (volcanoes, LGM, etc) a value not too far removed from 3 is deemed most likely.