The questions involve voting history, interest in the current campaign, and
likely voting intentions.
Not exact matches
This pattern is
likely to be repeated at the next general election; in almost every
voting intention poll, women express a lower propensity than men to
vote, sometimes significantly so.
This meant looking at polling data on
voting intentions in key marginal seats,
votes in the most recent local elections and the resources each party is
likely to have to spend on campaigning in the area.
Judging by this and the European election
voting intention figures the fuss over the UKIP posters is more
likely to have helped their support than damaged it.
Lord Ashcroft used the two stage
voting intention question for the constituency poll, first asking people a generic
voting intention question and then asking people to consider their own constituency and the candidates
likely to stand there in an attempt to squeeze out tactical or incumbency effects.
Alan Christie: now that the Smith report on further devolution of powers to Scottish Parliament is out, how is that
likely to impact SNP
voting intention in Scotland?
MBRUNO Alan Christie: now that the Smith report on further devolution of powers to Scottish Parliament is out, how is that
likely to impact SNP
voting intention in Scotland?
First it asked people their
voting intention using the standard question, THEN it asked them their
voting intention again saying «thinking about your own constituency and the parties and the candidates who are
likely to stand there, which party's candidate do you think you will
vote for in your own constituency at the next general election?»
The reason for the difference is most
likely tactical considerations — people answer Labour to a normal
voting intention question because that's the party they really support, but know that they happen to live in a seat where Labour could never win, so actually
vote Liberal Democrat.
It's worth remembering that all these theoretical «with Brown as leader»
voting intention questions also include the assumption that Charlie Kennedy will still be Lib Dem leader — something that looks considerably less
likely after the past week.
An advantage among new enrollees doesn't necessarily translate into an advantage among actual voters for Democrats, as young adults tend to be both more liberal and less
likely to
vote than their older neighbors, but the current trend doesn't appear to be driven by an large number of 18 year olds who filled out registration forms to please their parents and have no
intention of actually
voting.
This is
likely to be because best Prime Minister questions are strongly influenced by party allegiance, and the questions seem to have been asked as part of a standard ICM omnibus poll, which doesn't weight by past
vote unless there are
voting intention questions.
One of the surveys being connducted by telephone as recently as Sunday, and subsequently leaked on the internet, asked 17 questions about the Liberal Democrats and asked people to rate a series of statements according to how
likely they were to affect their
voting intentions.