Based on the available scientific knowledge it is only by concerted global actions and smart science - informed policies that we can provide solutions to
limit warming of the climate system to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and thus reduce the risks and mitigate the consequences of climate change.
Not exact matches
The conclusion that
limiting CO2 below 450 ppm will prevent
warming beyond two degrees C is based on a conservative definition
of climate sensitivity that considers only the so - called fast feedbacks in the
climate system, such as changes in clouds, water vapor and melting sea ice.
The consequences
of climate change are being felt not only in the environment, but in the entire socio - economic
system and, as seen in the findings
of numerous reports already available, they will impact first and foremost the poorest and weakest who, even if they are among the least responsible for global
warming, are the most vulnerable because they have
limited resources or live in areas at greater risk... Many
of the most vulnerable societies, already facing energy problems, rely upon agriculture, the very sector most likely to suffer from climatic shifts.»
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I've written an essay for Wednesday's Op - Ed page offering a short look at extreme weather in a
warming world and the two prongs
of the
climate challenge — the need to
limit human vulnerability to the worst the
climate system can throw at us and to curb emissions that are steadily raising the odds
of unwelcome outcomes, particularly extreme heat and either too much, or too little, water.
Such large variations
of the
climate likely won't occur every year over the next few decades given the
limited global
warming to date, but it would seem likely such conditions will occur more and more frequently as global
warming continues, disrupting both social
systems and ecosystems.
Final Text: The headline message to the section states that continued GHG emissions will cause further
warming and changes in all components
of the
climate system, and that
limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions
of GHG emissions.
Studies surveyed Millar, R. et al. (2017) Emission budgets and pathways consistent with
limiting warming to 1.5 C, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / ngeo3031 Matthews, H.D., et al. (2017) Estimating Carbon Budgets for Ambitious
Climate Targets, Current Climate Change Reports, doi: 10.1007 / s40641 -017-0055-0 Goodwin, P., et al. (2018) Pathways to 1.5 C and 2C warming based on observational and geological constraints, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / s41561 -017-0054-8 Schurer, A.P., et al. (2018) Interpretations of the Paris climate target, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / s41561 -018-0086-8 Tokarska, K., and Gillett, N. (2018) Cumulative carbon emissions budgets consistent with 1.5 C global warming, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0118-9 Millar, R., and Friedlingstein, P. (2018) The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0449 Lowe, J.A., and Bernie, D. (2018) The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2017.0263 Rogelj, J., et al. (2018) Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 C, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0091-3 Kriegler, E., et al. (2018) Pathways limiting warming to 1.5 °C: A tale of turning around in no time, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.20
Climate Targets, Current
Climate Change Reports, doi: 10.1007 / s40641 -017-0055-0 Goodwin, P., et al. (2018) Pathways to 1.5 C and 2C warming based on observational and geological constraints, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / s41561 -017-0054-8 Schurer, A.P., et al. (2018) Interpretations of the Paris climate target, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / s41561 -018-0086-8 Tokarska, K., and Gillett, N. (2018) Cumulative carbon emissions budgets consistent with 1.5 C global warming, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0118-9 Millar, R., and Friedlingstein, P. (2018) The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0449 Lowe, J.A., and Bernie, D. (2018) The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2017.0263 Rogelj, J., et al. (2018) Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 C, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0091-3 Kriegler, E., et al. (2018) Pathways limiting warming to 1.5 °C: A tale of turning around in no time, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.20
Climate Change Reports, doi: 10.1007 / s40641 -017-0055-0 Goodwin, P., et al. (2018) Pathways to 1.5 C and 2C
warming based on observational and geological constraints, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / s41561 -017-0054-8 Schurer, A.P., et al. (2018) Interpretations
of the Paris
climate target, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / s41561 -018-0086-8 Tokarska, K., and Gillett, N. (2018) Cumulative carbon emissions budgets consistent with 1.5 C global warming, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0118-9 Millar, R., and Friedlingstein, P. (2018) The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0449 Lowe, J.A., and Bernie, D. (2018) The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2017.0263 Rogelj, J., et al. (2018) Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 C, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0091-3 Kriegler, E., et al. (2018) Pathways limiting warming to 1.5 °C: A tale of turning around in no time, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.20
climate target, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / s41561 -018-0086-8 Tokarska, K., and Gillett, N. (2018) Cumulative carbon emissions budgets consistent with 1.5 C global
warming, Nature
Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0118-9 Millar, R., and Friedlingstein, P. (2018) The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0449 Lowe, J.A., and Bernie, D. (2018) The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2017.0263 Rogelj, J., et al. (2018) Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 C, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0091-3 Kriegler, E., et al. (2018) Pathways limiting warming to 1.5 °C: A tale of turning around in no time, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.20
Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0118-9 Millar, R., and Friedlingstein, P. (2018) The utility
of the historical record for assessing the transient
climate response to cumulative emissions, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0449 Lowe, J.A., and Bernie, D. (2018) The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2017.0263 Rogelj, J., et al. (2018) Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 C, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0091-3 Kriegler, E., et al. (2018) Pathways limiting warming to 1.5 °C: A tale of turning around in no time, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.20
climate response to cumulative emissions, Philosophical Transactions
of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0449 Lowe, J.A., and Bernie, D. (2018) The impact
of Earth
system feedbacks on carbon budgets and
climate response, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2017.0263 Rogelj, J., et al. (2018) Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 C, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0091-3 Kriegler, E., et al. (2018) Pathways limiting warming to 1.5 °C: A tale of turning around in no time, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.20
climate response, Philosophical Transactions
of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2017.0263 Rogelj, J., et al. (2018) Scenarios towards
limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 C, Nature
Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0091-3 Kriegler, E., et al. (2018) Pathways limiting warming to 1.5 °C: A tale of turning around in no time, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.20
Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0091-3 Kriegler, E., et al. (2018) Pathways
limiting warming to 1.5 °C: A tale
of turning around in no time, Philosophical Transactions
of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0457
«
Limiting total CO2 emissions from the start of 2015 to beneath 240 billion tonnes of carbon − 880 billion tonnes of CO2 — or about 20 years of current emissions would likely achieve the Paris goal of limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels,» says study leader Richard Millar, a climate system scientist at the University of
Limiting total CO2 emissions from the start
of 2015 to beneath 240 billion tonnes
of carbon − 880 billion tonnes
of CO2 — or about 20 years
of current emissions would likely achieve the Paris goal
of limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels,» says study leader Richard Millar, a climate system scientist at the University of
limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels,» says study leader Richard Millar, a
climate system scientist at the University
of Oxford.
The steepness
of these reductions curves is somewhat controversial because any calculation
of a carbon budget which determines the steepness
of the the needed reduction curve must make assumptions about when positive feedbacks in the
climate system will be triggered by rising temperatures, yet these controversies are reflected in giving different probabilities about the likelihood
of achieving a specific
warming limit.
The conclusion that
limiting CO2 below 450 ppm will prevent
warming beyond two degrees C is based on a conservative definition
of climate sensitivity that considers only the so - called fast feedbacks in the
climate system, such as changes in clouds, water vapor and melting sea ice.
Limiting warming to 2C is a laudable aspiration — one that gives us a decent chance (not certainty)
of avoiding dangerous interference with the
climate system.
«From the point
of view
of science, technology and economics, the literature and modeling on energy and
climate systems shows that it's feasible to limit warming to below 1.5 degree by 2100,» said Bill Hare, the physicist who is founder and CEO of Climate Ana
climate systems shows that it's feasible to
limit warming to below 1.5 degree by 2100,» said Bill Hare, the physicist who is founder and CEO
of Climate Ana
Climate Analytics.
Indeed, if this is the situation it is really impossible to forecast
climate change for at least a few decades and the practical usefulness
of these kind
of GCMs is quite
limited and potentially very misleading because the model can project a 10 - year
warming while then the «red - noise» dynamics
of the
climate system changes completely the projected pattern!
Careful and up - to - date monitoring
of present and projected human - induced
warming will be essential to the Paris process as it tackles the challenge
of limiting warming to 1.5 C — as will a good dialogue between scientists and decision - makers to ensure that the latest knowledge about the
climate system is effectively communicated to policymakers.
Hansen and Sato (2012), using paleoclimate data rather than models
of recent and expected
climate change, warn that «goals
of limiting human made
warming to 2 °C and CO2 to 450 ppm are prescriptions for disaster» because significant tipping points — where significant elements
of the
climate system move from one discrete state to another — will be crossed.