I'll be back next Friday to update you on the latest
line movements directly from the top online sportsbooks.
There are numerous reasons for different sportsbook personalities — but for us, the bottom line is that some sportsbooks have varied
line movements that may or may not trigger Smart Money Moves.
Anyone that doesn't base their research on
line movements, betting trends and true line value is wasting time and money.
Any system that is widespread like the reverse
line movements will only work in a relatively small sample size because once it becomes popular and is used often then the oddsmakers will pick up on it and use it to trap players.
We use our massive database of public betting data and
line movement info to pinpoint the optimal triggering settings.
The opening lines are out for the remainder of the 2010 college football season — and depending on what sportsbook you use, you may want to check out the current
line movement and the latest lines — based on our Opening Line Report below.
The combination of our College Football Betting Trends data and
line movement indicate that, so far, sharp money jumped on Florida State, pushing the point spread to -10 and -10.5 across the sports betting marketplace.
This lopsided betting moved the line.5 - 1.0 point at most books and, as we have learned, a half point
line movement can increase your winning percentage by two percent.
Using the data available to Sportsbook Insider subscribers, I have examined the latest trends to determine what's driving
line movement in the most interesting Week 5 matchups.
The logic behind fading to get the points makes a ton of sense as it adds up in the long run, but I don't see it if you're simply betting one side despite
no line movement just because everyone is on the other side.
I've also done more in - depth write - ups on some of the bigger matchups and what is causing the early
line movement:
At the time of publication,
the line movement was toward the opening favorite in 9 of the 12 matchups.
The graph below illustrates Oklahoma's
line movement and shifts in public betting trends throughout the week.
With four conference championship games on tap this afternoon, let's take a moment to examine
the line movement for these key matchups using our College Basketball Betting Trends.
If the general public (based on Betting Percentage) is on one side of the game, but the point spread moves in the opposite direction, it is often an indicator that «big money» (and most likely «smart money») is taking a position in the direction of
the line movement (and opposite to the Public).
As a result, we are keeping a close eye on tonight's game and could include Arizona State as a Best Bet or Square Play, depending on how our College Football Betting System Picks react to
line movement and changes in the Public Betting Trends throughout the day.
As a result, we are keeping a close eye on tonight's game and could include Louisiana Tech as a Best Bet or Square Play, depending on how our College Football Betting System Picks react to
line movement and changes in the Public Betting Trends throughout the day.
This reverse
line movement can easily be explained by our money percentages, which indicate that Illinois has received 67 % of total dollars wagered.
This line movement would trigger a «Smart Money» alert.
However, we wanted to see what happened when there was also smart money on the under, so we focused solely on games with reverse
line movement (RLM).
This reverse
line movement is a strong indicator that sharp money has taken the host Vikings.
With
no line movement thus far, more than six out of ten spread wagers are sticking with Drew Brees and the high - flying Saints to take down their division rivals by at least seven points at home.
The screenshot below illustrates Iowa's
line movement and shifts in betting trends throughout the week.
Michigan presents a tougher challenge for Wisconsin, and it appears that «sharps» are jumping on Michigan because of the «reverse
line movement.»
Pro subscribers have access to real - time odds, public betting trends, money percentages, bet signals (including steam moves and reverse
line movement alerts), injury alerts, value meter, line watcher, line predictor, and many other unique features.
In the most drastic example of
line movement thus far this week, the sportsbooks have adjusted their lines to take a big 1.5 points away from road dog New York.
That's one of the reasons we consider reverse
line movement to be an excellent indicator of sharp money.
The team here at SportsInsights has circled a handful of these games due to these discrepancies, so let's take a moment to examine
the line movement for these key matchups using our College Basketball Betting Trends.
As we first noted on our Twitter page, there was an early Pinnacle Steam Move (177 - 131, +28.55 units won) that helped cause the major
line movement.
In the 19 games in which there has been reverse
line movement on the under, the under has produced a 16 - 3 record with +12.49 units won and an astounding 65.7 % ROI.
Nonetheless, the reverse
line movement and public betting percentages both indicate that sharp money likes the Trojans this weekend.
Although these four games currently qualify for this system, be sure to track all NFL Week 17
line movement on your Live Odds page, particularly if Cleveland is pushed to +8 against Pittsburgh.
We will continue to monitor
the line movement on this game, but we're always curious about your thoughts.
This weekend should have plenty of great matchups highlighted by New England's showdown with Baltimore, but the following games have had the most eye - catching
line movement at the market setting Cris sportsbook.
Betting lines move for many reasons; injury updates, weather, etc., but «betting
line movement» that goes against the «betting percentages» is an excellent indicator of Smart Money, also referred to as Sharp Money.
Each matchup is different, and bettors need to pay attention to factors like public betting trends and sharp money indicators like steam moves and / or reverse
line movement.
That line movement would seem to indicate that early sharp money likes the road dog.
However,
the line movement on this game has differed depending on the book, opening -7.5 at 5Dimes, -8 at BetUS, and -9 at Bookmaker.
This reverse
line movement would indicate that early sharp money likes the home dog.
This reverse
line movement indicates that sharp bettors are taking Cincinnati (9 - 3, 5 - 2).
This reverse
line movement is a strong indicator that sharp money lines the home underdog.
The even betting has caused very little
line movement, if any, at the market - setting sportsbooks and our Betting Systems have yet to trigger a play in this game.
The «big money» is often a sign of «sharps» — and causes reverse
line movement because the larger, smart, money — overwhelms the large majority of the bets by the general Public (which often bets smaller amounts).
In addition to receiving our winning picks, you'll also have access to real - time odds from over 40 sportsbooks, public betting trends, our newly added money percentages, our exclusive Line Watcher and access to all of our bet signals including steam moves, reverse
line movement alerts and contrarian plays.
This line movement can be easily explained by our money percentages, which show that Auburn is actually receiving 78 % of total dollars wagered.
Keep an eye on
the line movement for some potential value on Army.
The Pro membership includes real - time odds from over 40 sportsbooks, public betting trends, money percentages, bet signals (steam and reverse
line movement alerts) and access to our exclusive Best Bet picks.
In games with the highest ticket counts, the road team is getting more than 70 % of spread bets in each one of them but
the line movement has differed on all.
With
no line movement thus far, spread bettors are giving the slight edge to Houston either securing a huge upset victory or losing by seven points or less against the AFC North champion Ravens.
NFL Steam Moves Plays are our pro football betting picks triggered by sudden uniform
line movement across the entire sports betting marketplace.