But Swain and his colleagues wanted to know if that was because there was really
little change in precipitation or if there were big changes at either end of the spectrum that balanced each other out when looking at yearly averages.
ACPI assumes a 1 percent annual increase in the rate of greenhouse gas concentrations through the year 2100, for
little change in precipitation and an average temperature increase of 1.5 to 2 degrees centigrade at least through the middle of 21st century.
Not exact matches
Uncertainty about rain,
little uncertainty about sea level rise Climate
change could also affect
precipitation in California, though the two models USGS used
in its research produced different results.
The potential effects of climate
change on the spread of insect - borne diseases is a major public health concern, but this study found
little evidence that mosquito populations
in these areas were responding to
changes in temperature or
precipitation.
The net
change over land accounts for 24 % of the global mean increase
in precipitation, a
little less than the areal proportion of land (29 %).
Joseph Bast, who works with the group, highlighted some of the group's conclusions
in Forbes: There is
little risk of global food insecurity owing to higher levels of CO2, as higher CO2 will greatly aid plant productivity; «No
changes in precipitation patterns, snow, monsoons, or river flows that might be considered harmful to human well - being or plants or wildlife have been observed that could be attributed to rising CO2»; and
little risk to aquatic or dry - land ecosystems.
For the entire Northern Hemisphere, there is evidence of an increase
in both storm frequency and intensity during the cold season since 1950,1 with storm tracks having shifted slightly towards the poles.2, 3 Extremely heavy snowstorms increased
in number during the last century
in northern and eastern parts of the United States, but have been less frequent since 2000.11,15 Total seasonal snowfall has generally decreased
in southern and some western areas, 16 increased
in the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes region, 16,17 and not
changed in other areas, such as the Sierra Nevada, although snow is melting earlier
in the year and more
precipitation is falling as rain versus snow.18 Very snowy winters have generally been decreasing
in frequency
in most regions over the last 10 to 20 years, although the Northeast has been seeing a normal number of such winters.19 Heavier - than - normal snowfalls recently observed
in the Midwest and Northeast U.S.
in some years, with
little snow
in other years, are consistent with indications of increased blocking (a large scale pressure pattern with
little or no movement) of the wintertime circulation of the Northern Hemisphere.5 However, conclusions about trends
in blocking have been found to depend on the method of analysis, 6 so the assessment and attribution of trends
in blocking remains an active research area.
«We're seeing increasing temperatures and relatively
little change in average
precipitation, but an increase
in the variability and the occurrence of both wet and dry extremes,» said Daniel Swain, an atmospheric scientist at Stanford's School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences and the lead author of a new paper published
in Science Advances.
The researchers used recent historical data and not climate modeling, so the study does not make any future predictions, but Swain says the findings appear to be consistent with other climate research that reveals there is
little change in average
precipitation, but an increase
in the amount of very wet or very dry periods.
Peterson and Haug 2006 and Newton et al 2006, for example, attribute the coherence to latitudinal migrations of the ITCZ, hypothesizing that it (and other patterns) was further north
in the Medieval period and further south
in the
Little Ice Age, explaining antiphase
changes in precipitation whereby northerly tropical sites became drier
in the
Little Ice Age (Cariaco, Yucatan etc 15N or so) while more southerly tropical sites became wetter
in the
Little Ice Age (Lake Titicaca, Lake Malawi, Quelccaya etc. all at 10S or so).
For example, analyses of glacier mass balances, volume
changes and length variations along with temperature records
in the western European Alps (Vincent et al., 2005) indicate that between 1760 and 1830, glacier advance was driven by
precipitation that was 25 % above the 20th century average, while there was
little difference
in average temperatures.
A few groups pursued the study of possible mechanisms, for example elaborating theories of how
changes in the atmosphere's electric circuit, which varies with the flux of cosmic rays, affected
precipitation in the Arctic, Ram et al. (2009), or devising experiments that they hoped would show a direct and strong effect of cosmic rays on clouds, e.g., Svensmark et al. (2007)(which brought a strong press reaction but proved
little).