Returning to the issue of future projections of aggregate activity (PDI, as in Fig. 1), while there remains a lack of consensus among various studies on how Atlantic hurricane PDI will change, no model we have analyzed shows a sensitivity of Atlantic hurricane PDI to greenhouse warming as large as that implied by the observed Atlantic PDI /
local SST relationship shown in Figures 1 (top panel).
The SST anomalies of the West Pacific and East Indian Oceans can and do rise in response to both El Niño and La Niña events, causing a cumulative effect that raises
local SST anomalies.
The different ice areas in and around the Arctic behave differently to oceanic currents,
local SST, land boundaries, weather systems, and wind.
My question back to you is, Does the cloud change precede
the local SST change or does it precede the change in NINO3.4 SST?
Under both hypotheses
local SST plays a direct role in helping to power hurricanes by providing moist enthalpy and instability.
You write: Even if the GW trend is additive to
local SST event, it doesn't necessarily translate to proportional increase in wind speed.
The unusually strong hurricane season is explained by the huge
local SST anomaly in the Western Tropical Atlantic.
Even if the GW trend is additive to
local SST event, it doesn't necessarily translate to proportional increase in wind speed.
The local SST anomaly is about 4 C over one year.
Would you accept that current SST (not current anomaly, but current
local SST) is the result of a combination of cyclical variation plus GW?
The decrease is negatively correlated to
local SST anomalies, especially in the eastern tropical Pacific, and is associated with a change in convective activity.
The main modulating influence on tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific appears to be the changes in atmospheric circulation associated with ENSO, rather than
local SSTs (Liu and Chan, 2003; Chan and Liu, 2004).
But might the assumption that the rest of the time the Gomez data reflects SSTs from further afield be more consistent with your observation, about similarities between the Gomez record and the ICOADS SST data, than if the Gomez record always reflected only
local SSTs?
Not exact matches
Here, we report on
local and global changes in MHW characteristics over time as recorded by satellite and in situ measurements of sea surface temperature (
SST) and defined using a quantitative MHW framework, which allows for comparisons across regions and events1.
Rather, they rely on trends in basin - wide averaged monthly or seasonal
SSTs that are not necessarily representative of the
local marine environment experienced by tropical cyclones.
Same applies if you change the reference period to a sliding window or define the anomaly as
SST [
local]-
SST [global].
That is one reason that ice cores are useful is they record more than just
local conditions, they provide a record of mid-latitude
SST's.
I'll presume in the following that the
SST you're refering to in your question is a
local or regional one.
THE ANIMATION OF MULTIDECADAL CHANGES IN
SST ANOMALIES The Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) Global Map - Making webpage allows users to create maps of global
SST anomalies and maps of the changes in global
SST anomalies (based on
local linear trends) over user - specified time intervals.
That is, from 1916 to 1946, global
SST anomalies rose 0.39 deg C (based on
local linear trends).
This La Nina of 2018 should have produced colder
SSTs in my
local area (Sonoma Coast).
Thus the effect of sediment cores, which show strong
local effects (e.g. in upwelling regions) is minimized, and the mean
SST anomaly should be more representative for large scale tropical conditions (dominated by large scale forcings, such as lowered CO2 concentrations).
Camargo, S. J., M. Ting, and Y. Kushnir, 2013: Influence of
local and remote
SST on North Atlantic tropical cyclone potential intensity.
Bob Tisdale's
SST data makes this overwhelmingly obvious, and he identifies ENSO events as a trigger for the jumps, but that still doesn't yet predict the direction of the jumps or their magnitude (that is, the long term underlying trend in the
local equilibria the jumps move between).
Next, because
SST can drive temps for coastal stations and because the regression does not extract this, there will be stations where the
local detail is wrong.
Compo and Sardeshmukh (2009) argue, based on model simulation with prescribed historical
SSTs, that most of the continental warming is caused by the ocean warming and not by the
local response the radiative forcings.»
Identify the mechanisms by which AMOC variability, imprinted on
SST and / or the cryosphere, affects
local and remote atmospheric patterns and phenomena.
Roger also points out on his site that it is not just
SST that are affected by climate change, I read this to mean that land use changes,
local changes in climate forcings and so forth may counteract the expected increase from
SST locally.
This thing with the
SSTs reminds me of the revelation after the Cold War that in many Russian cities, mayors or other
local leadership would have their «offical» daily temperatures exaggerated in order to make it look as if it were really colder than it was, in order to get more money for fuel from Moscow.
Observed records of Atlantic hurricane activity show some correlation, on multi-year time - scales, between
local tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (
SSTs) and the Power Dissipation Index (PDI)-- see for example Fig. 3 on this EPA Climate Indicators site.
One other factor over the period post-1945 to 1963 which limited and affected
SST observations in the Pacific Ocean were the various nuclear test series, for numerous military, political, physical and biohazard reasons, and the consequential
local hydrophysical, hydrobiological, and atmospheric perturbations such testing occasioned.
• Directed state testing assessments for Blythe Elementary School, assisted in
SST meetings for interventional plans and coordinated
local leaders and businesses to be speakers for the schools.