Sentences with phrase «local elections the model»

For the 2011 and 2012 local elections the model is fairly certain that the Conservatives will be the largest party at the next election.

Not exact matches

MPs Gisela Stuart and Liam Byrne are expected to seek Labour's candidacy if the city votes to adopt the directly - elected mayor model in a referendum held alongside local elections on May 3rd.

Using the same data a logit regression model improves the predictive power of local elections to tell us who will win the most votes at the next general election, making correct predictions 86.21 % of the time.

My forecasting model for seat gains / losses at local elections has previously been a simple model based on change in party support in the polls.

Two years ago I developed a simple statistical model that tries to predict the outcome of general elections from local election results.

As usual, the models exclude local elections on the same day as a general election and also 1992 when the local elections were held just a month after.

The net effects of this trend are reflected in the vote intention polls, but geographical implications for this year's local elections are not part of my model.

Complex Forecasting Models: ElectionForecast.co.uk (Chris Hanretty) Electoral Calculus (main and local election forecast) Forecast UK UK - Elect PME Politics (Patrick English) Nigel Marriot (Uniform Regional Swing + Tactical Voting Model) Chris Prosser (GE vote shares from Local elections vote shares) Lord Ashcroft (3 models based on different turnout estiModels: ElectionForecast.co.uk (Chris Hanretty) Electoral Calculus (main and local election forecast) Forecast UK UK - Elect PME Politics (Patrick English) Nigel Marriot (Uniform Regional Swing + Tactical Voting Model) Chris Prosser (GE vote shares from Local elections vote shares) Lord Ashcroft (3 models based on different turnout estimlocal election forecast) Forecast UK UK - Elect PME Politics (Patrick English) Nigel Marriot (Uniform Regional Swing + Tactical Voting Model) Chris Prosser (GE vote shares from Local elections vote shares) Lord Ashcroft (3 models based on different turnout estimLocal elections vote shares) Lord Ashcroft (3 models based on different turnout estimodels based on different turnout estimates)

The following table shows my model based forecast, a 95 % probability prediction range, and the Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher estimates from their analysis of local by - elections.

The question before progressive advocates of public campaign financing in New York State is whether we push for full public campaign finance on the Clean Money model of equal and sufficient funding grants for all qualified candidates, or whether we settle for partial public campaign financing on the Matching Funds model used for presidential primaries since 1976 and for New York City local elections since 1989.

This of course is a very rough model and it can not take appropriate account of the fact that changing support levels between elections tend to vary geographically, while it also fails to take account of the local particularities of the different regions in cases where no regional figures are produced in association with different national opinion polls meaning that there is no scope to carry out separate regional analyses based on these poll figures.

He has got his own forecasting model, based on the link between performance in local elections and performance in national opinion polls.

-- Political Science: Study local leadership roles, elections, community political structure, and offer comparisons to the political models of Ecuador, South and Central America in general, or other systems in specific.

A lesson that revises: FPTP Advantages / disadvantages of FPTP Proportional and non-proportional rep Who can and can not vote in local / general elections Complete with a practice 8 mark answer with model answers and suggested criteria and writing frames

The Commission will examine potential strategies to reorganize the state's education system including district consolidation and / or shared services; comparing models from other states to achieve efficiencies and improved education outcomes; identifying reforms and savings in special education; maximizing informed participation in local elections; and facilitating shared services, consolidation and regional governance.