Not exact matches
The sample period is bullish for
equities, with the average monthly
return of the
local stock
market 1.6 % above the risk - free rate.
Emerging -
market local currency bonds
returned almost 3 per cent, while
equities from developing nations also clung onto gains.
We find that the Shiller - PE is a reliable long - term valuation indicator for developed and emerging
markets and we use the indicator to predict real
returns on
local equity markets over the next five to ten years.
[1] We use the average
local returns of a range of international and domestic futures
markets to represent
equity index and bond sectors.
Klement uses the indicator to predict real
returns on
local equity markets over the next five to ten years (shown in Exhibits 11 and 12 extracted below):
• For all developed
equity markets the expected real
return in
local currencies is positive and the probability of negative real
returns after ten years is generally low.