Not exact matches
Scottish Tories currently campaigning for
local government elections on May 4th tell stories about encountering long - standing Labour voters in
local authority areas not exactly known for being friendly to Conservatives and who now declare their
intention to
vote for «Ruth» and the Tories.
This meant looking at polling data on
voting intentions in key marginal seats,
votes in the most recent
local elections and the resources each party is likely to have to spend on campaigning in the area.
Continue reading
Local elections
vote share (PNS) and general election
vote intention →
The graph below shows the BBC Projected National Share of the
vote (PNS) from
local elections together with general election
vote intention from the polls for the month before each round of
local elections.
UKIP's share of general election
vote intention, at 14 % last week, is much more muted than the 23 % they achieved in the Projected National Share of the
vote (PNS) from the
local elections.
The net effects of this trend are reflected in the
vote intention polls, but geographical implications for this year's
local elections are not part of my model.
In two of the seats polled, Thanet South and Thurrock, UKIP were ahead in
voting intentions, which will be enormous help for them in convincing voters they are a viable general election
vote in the
local area.
As with
voting intention polls, if you look at oppositions that went on to win the next election, they won mid-term
local elections hands down.
More interesting, given we are only a few months away from the London council elections in May, are
local government
voting intentions of CON 28 % (+2), LAB 54 % (+17), LDEM 11 % (+1), GRN 4 % -LRB--6) UKIP 2 % -LRB--10).
Still, for those getting rather bored with the
voting intention figures, we can look ahead to several potentially significant events — many commentators have suggested Gordon Brown is putting great weight in the G20 summit this week to give his premiership a boost, beyond that is the budget, which could work either way, and past that we have the
local and european elections, which often lead to realignments in the national opinion polls.
Reports do not make clear whether this is a general election
voting intention question or a
local election
voting intention question — either way, I'm reserving judgement till I see the tables on the ICM website.
A BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday has
voting intention figures for the
local elections.
Most of the 200 - strong audience in each debate will be picked by pollsters ICM from the
local area to ensure a balance of gender, age, ethnicity, social class and
voting intention.
Ahead of the
local elections Government would do well to remember the impact school funding had on the
voting intentions of the public during the general election.»
According to the website, it conducted a «large - scale research project», sampling 47,000 people, which provided a profile including things like «key national and
local political issues, levels of trust in key politicians,
voting behaviours /
intentions, and preferred information channels».