The time will come to end the high quality
long bond trade, but at present, who knows?
Not exact matches
While I don't presume to read traders» (or
trading computers») minds (see Barry ritholtz» note this morning about ex post facto rationalizations), generally speaking there is concern that the «taper» of
long term
bond purchases will cause
bond yields (the percent of interest paid on them) to rise.
Mad Money host Jim Cramer goes off the charts with the help of Carly Garner of DeCarley
Trading, who expects the
long rally in
bond prices to soon end.
According to Morningstar Direct, $ 59 billion is invested in
long - term
bond funds and exchange -
traded funds (defined as portfolios with average durations above six years).
Bond can make short - term
trade - offs for
long - term payoffs.
It used the FSR to report that traders and investors in Canada say that it is taking
longer to complete
trades in fixed - income markets and that larger
trades that used to go through easily now must be broken up into smaller bites, especially when moving corporate
bonds.
Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein, 61, is trying to ride out a years -
long bond -
trading slump that's being compounded by market swings and stiffer regulations — challenges that have forced many competitors to scale back.
Each month, Palhares and Richardson sorted corporate
bonds into quintiles based on each liquidity measure and computed the return of a
long / short portfolio that buys the least liquid
bonds (i.e., smaller issue sizes, higher bid / ask spreads, lower
trading volume, higher price impact or higher frequency of zero -
trading days) and sells the most liquid
bonds (i.e., larger issue sizes, smaller bid / ask spreads, higher
trading volume, lower price impact or lower frequency of zero -
trading days).
We define the reflation
trade as favoring assets likely to benefit from rising growth and inflation, such as cyclical equities and emerging markets (EM), while limiting exposure to
long - term government
bonds.
But panelist Daniel Greenhaus, chief global strategist at institutional
trading brokerage BTIG, who makes appearances on Bloomberg TV and works with clients in the hedge fund world, said that hedgies take a
longer view and avoid the noise in the blogosphere: «If you talk to George Soros, all he wants is the big picture view of QE tapering: «When will the Fed stop buying back
bonds?
But with
long - term
bonds and non-cyclical equity sectors
trading at historically extreme valuations while cyclical sectors
trade at valuations below their
long - term average, we think that risk aversion is creating numerous investment opportunities for investors willing to build a portfolio of more economically sensitive companies.
«We remember vividly 35 years ago staring at
long - term impeccable
bonds trading at 15 % to 17 % yields, thinking; «Why bother
trading, hedging and knocking ourselves out?
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If the Dollar broke lower, its likely too that
bonds and duration would rally; defensives (staples, utes, reits) and growth (tech / biotech / discret) squeeze against crowded value unwinding (fins, energy, indus); yen and euro would squeeze mightily; gold squeezes while copper pukes in a favorite commodities «pair» unwind; HY could reverse weaker vs IG (currently everybody
long CCC vs BB on the high beta
trade)... this would be the theoretical path to our next pain -
trade or even VaR shock.
One popular
bond investing strategy is called «laddering» and provides a
trade - off between lower rates on short - term
bonds and higher interest rate risk of
long - term
bonds.
The common element is that any
long position taken in a specific equity is offset by a short position in either a merger partner (risk arbitrage), an «overvalued» member of the same sector (
long / short paired
trading), a convertible
bond (convertible arbitrage), a futures contract (index arbitrage) or an option contract (volatility arbitrage).
The
trade - off is that
longer - term
bonds usually offer higher rates to start out.
If the
bonds don't match your time horizon, then you either end up
trading shorter term
bonds until your 10 years are up (which is an expensive headache), or you take unnecessary interest rate risk with
longer term
bonds.
If you want to get your cash off the sidelines but aren't ready to commit to something
long term, consider a short - term
bond exchange -
traded fund (ETF).
I like to say it was like being the
long bond trader back in the 1980s — possibly the toughest
trading job on the Street.
Each self - publishing enthusiast might collect his or her industry rep from EC1 and
bond deeply during the
long pilgrimage together into the wilds of EC2 so that
trade people have a chance to see and hear what's being offered and said to and about self - publishers.
Bond trading can be short, or long term and allows bond traders to take a position on future interest rate movements while leveraging the security and stability of government treasur
Bond trading can be short, or
long term and allows
bond traders to take a position on future interest rate movements while leveraging the security and stability of government treasur
bond traders to take a position on future interest rate movements while leveraging the security and stability of government treasuries.
Managed futures as an asset class are historically non-correlated to the stock and
bond markets over
long term periods and encompass a wide range of
trading strategies (generally taking
long / short positions in futures contracts on equity indices, commodities, financials and currencies).
Trade: Buy
bonds when the ratio is more than half a standard deviation below its
long - run moving average (
bonds are cheap relative to stocks) sell when it's more than half a standard deviation above its
long - run moving average (stocks are cheap relative to
bonds).
Stock ETFs (exchange -
traded funds) aim to provide
long - term growth — unlike
bond ETFs, which focus on income.
Even if the primary market were dominated by buy - and - hold investors (more common in
bonds, less common in stocks), the speculation inherent in much secondary
trading provides real value to the IPO syndicates, and
longer - term investors.
There were new
trades that could be done by comparing the cash
bond market and CDS market, going
long one and short the other.
Yet someone who buys
long - term securities intending to quickly resell rather than hold is a speculator, and thirty - year Treasury
bonds have also effectively become
trading sardines.
This is a very crowded
trade: short the euro,
long bonds,
long puts, short US financials, 100 % out of the stock market for investors, and short for many hedge funds.
If you want to get your cash off the sidelines but aren't ready to commit to something
long term, consider a short - term
bond exchange -
traded fund (ETF).
Inflation is coming, and I am likely to
trade away
longer nominal
bonds for short
bonds, and inflation - adjusted
bonds.
BMO already has exchange -
traded funds covering short - term (ZCS), intermediate (ZCM), and
long - term (ZLC) corporate
bonds, and these ETFs have average terms of about three, seven and 22 years, respectively.
The only
trade - off is that strip
bonds have a
longer duration than traditional
bonds of the same maturity, so BXF (with a duration of about 3.6) will be somewhat more sensitive to interest rate movements than CLF (duration 2.5) and XSB (duration 2.8).
For the backtests, iShares Barclays Aggregate
Bond (AGG) was used in lieu of BND and iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA) was used in lieu of VEU because they have
longer trading histories:
The only ways I can think of is to 1) not
trade leveraged instruments (
longer time frames work great on stocks, etfs,
bonds, etc...) or 2) have really tight stops if I'm
trading leveraged (but again I find that tight stops get hit a lot).
It remains in effect only for the day, and usually results in the prompt purchase or sale of all the shares of stock, options contracts, or
bonds in question, as
long as the security is actively
traded and market conditions permit.
I think it was somewhere around a 15 % yield on a 1 - yr GoC T - Bill, but I believe that the 10 - yr
long bond was
trading way down at an 8 % yield.
While lower spreads on
trading bond ETFs help offset this somewhat, the issue will still prevail with a buy - and - hold strategy over the
longer term.
The problem with many of the
long - term debt / gilt funds is that they try to play an active role in
bond trading and then take wrong calls, like a normal retail investor.
«The best example is credit
long / short or hedge fund type strategies,» he says, adding that the number of
bonds that
trade actively and can execute an effective strategy has diminished, so plan sponsors may not have many options in facilitating
trades.
The common element is that any
long position taken in a specific equity is offset by a short position in either a merger partner (risk arbitrage), an «overvalued» member of the same sector (
long / short paired
trading), a convertible
bond (convertible arbitrage), a futures contract (index arbitrage) or an option contract (volatility arbitrage).
Spanish
bond spreads are
trading at 13 times their
longer - term average.
Each month, Palhares and Richardson sorted corporate
bonds into quintiles based on each liquidity measure and computed the return of a
long / short portfolio that buys the least liquid
bonds (i.e., smaller issue sizes, higher bid / ask spreads, lower
trading volume, higher price impact or higher frequency of zero -
trading days) and sells the most liquid
bonds (i.e., larger issue sizes, smaller bid / ask spreads, higher
trading volume, lower price impact or lower frequency of zero -
trading days).
Maybe they could reverse their
trade in
long Treasuries, Agencies, and Mortgage
bonds.
(I would tell you that he taught me how to
trade corporate
bonds, even though he has never
traded corporates, but that would be a
long story.)
If you hang around
bond investing
long enough, you run into the phrase «carry
trade.»
When it comes to setting rates, certain loans, such as residential home mortgage loans, may not be based on the prime rate but rather
trade off the U.S. Treasury Bill rate (a short - term government rate), the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and
longer - term U.S. Treasury
bonds.
While the Fed continues to taper,
longer - dated
bonds are starting to settle into a reasonable
trading range.
Do that, and you'll gain exposure to virtually every type of publicly
traded stock in the world (large and small, growth and value, domestic and foreign, all industries and sectors) as well as the entire U.S. investment - grade taxable
bond market (short - to
long - term maturities, corporates, Treasuries and mortgage - backed issues).