Sentences with phrase «long climate model simulations»

In addition I have taken part in very long climate model simulations.

This recent shift towards more intense and frequent El Niños is related to the recent increase in dry areas around the world.5 However, past observations and reconstructions of El Niño events from non-instrumental records such as corals show that El Niño events naturally fluctuate in magnitude and frequency over time, and this has been demonstrated in long climate model simulations of past and future climate as well.6

[Response: Following up Gavin's comment, it has indeed already been shown — based on experiments with synthetic proxy data derived from a long climate model simulation (see Figure 5 herein)-- that the calibration method used by Moberg et al is prone to artificially inflating low - frequency variability.

Not exact matches

«We need both, realistic model simulations and long - term data records, and really sophisticated analysis methods to produce reliable climate predictions.

A 2000 - year transient climate simulation with the Community Climate System Model shows the same temperature sensitivity to changes in insolation as does our proxy reconstruction, supporting the inference that this long - term trend was caused by the steady orbitally driven reduction in summer insoclimate simulation with the Community Climate System Model shows the same temperature sensitivity to changes in insolation as does our proxy reconstruction, supporting the inference that this long - term trend was caused by the steady orbitally driven reduction in summer insoClimate System Model shows the same temperature sensitivity to changes in insolation as does our proxy reconstruction, supporting the inference that this long - term trend was caused by the steady orbitally driven reduction in summer insolation.

For the first time, their study combines the strengths of simulations based on integrated energy - economy - climate models that estimate cost - optimal long - term strategies to meet climate targets with life cycle assessment approaches.

The climate models provided pre-industrial control simulations (i.e natural variability only) and 20th century simulations, with the control simulations being a mimimum of 500 years long.

You say «That the model simulations that you discuss in your weblog do not simulate rapid climate transitions such as we document in our paper illustrates that the models do not skillfully create chaotic behavior over long time periods as clearly occurs in the real world.»

That the model simulations that you discuss in your weblog do not simulate rapid climate transitions such as we document in our paper illustrates that the models do not skillfully create chaotic behavior over long time periods as clearly occurs in the real world.

There are some long simulations with global climate models, but I don't know if there have been any studies dedicated to answer your question.

I think there is an important context here that is easy to lose in all of the emphasis on the thing that the trees don't appear to be doing well w / (i.e. the response to the high - frequency cooling events associated primarily with explosive volcanic eruptions): that's, the thing that the trees appear to be doing remarkably well with, i.e. capturing the long - term trends and low - frequency variability that is predicted by the climate model simulations.

Dr. Judith Curry notes «The most recent climate model simulations used in the AR5 indicate that the warming stagnation since 1998 is no longer consistent with model projections even at the 2 % confidence level» This means the hypothesis upon which these models have been built is wrong and should be abandoned.

Our study shows that in 35 - years long high - resolution simulations the new model version can reproduce the state of the Fenno - Scandinavian lakes realistically, thus leading to a better representation of the overall climate.

Dameris, M., V. Grewe, M. Ponater, R. Deckert, V. Eyring, F. Mager, S. Matthes, C. Schnadt, A. Stenke, B. Steil, C. Brühl, and M. Giorgetta, 2004: Long - term changes and variability in a transient simulation with a chemistry - climate model employing realistic forcings, in preparation.

Long - term changes and variability in a transient simulation with a chemistry - climate model employing realistic forcings, in preparation.

Natural variability from the ensemble of 587 21 - year - long segments of control simulations (with constant external forcings) from 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) climate models is shown in black and gray.

To ensure their models are accurate, Ault said researchers distinguished and separated normal climatic variability from long - term atmospheric alterations, by using a new ensemble of climate change simulations.

The models used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's «A1B» mid-range projected emission scenarios for ozone and aerosol precursors, independently calculated the resulting composition change, and then performed transient simulations to 2050 examining the response to projected changes in the short - lived species and to changes in both long - lived and short - lived species together.

Further estimates of internal variability can be produced from long control simulations with climate models... Expert judgments or multi-model techniques may be used to incorporate as far as possible the range of variability in climate models and to assign uncertainty levels, confidence in which will need to be assessed.»

Interpretation of climate model simulations has emphasized the existence of plateaus or hiatus in the warming for time scales of up to 15 - 17 years; longer periods have not been previously anticipated, and the IPCC AR4 clearly expected a warming of 0.2 C per decade for the early part of the 21st century.

Not long ago, it would have taken several years to run a high - resolution simulation on a global climate model.

In summary, the empirical evidence again confirms that climate simulations and computer models are very suspect regarding their capabilities at both short and long - term predictions / forecasts.

A shift in atmospheric circulation in response to changes in solar activity is broadly consistent with atmospheric circulation patterns in long - term climate model simulations, and in reanalysis data that assimilate observations from recent solar minima into a climate model.

In terms of longer timescales (decadal to century), once the focus becomes regional rather than global, historical and paleo data becomes more useful than global climate model simulations (no matter what type of «right - scaling» methods are attempted).

The lakes in Fenno - Scandinavia can be modeled in long - term simulations with a regional climate model

Users of chemistry - climate models (CCMs) with particular focus on long - term numerical simulations using CCMs for the detailed investigation of model feedbacks between ozone chemistry, ozone depleting substance (ODS) trends, and climate.

Climate and Earth system models are used to understand potential changes in the AMOC, including potential feedbacks in the system, although the representation of unresolved physics (such as the parameterization of ocean mixing) could potentially be of concern in long, centennial simulations.

So while the results from more complex models may, in the short - term, be less informative for policy makers and the public, they will help scientists better understand what drives climate change and lead to better simulations in the long - term.

In this study, we primarily investigate the reliability of the climatology (long - term mean of model simulation) of large - scale features of climate model ensembles, but we also consider the trend for surface air temperature where transient simulations are available (that is, for the coupled ocean — atmosphere models).

A regional climate model simulation of coastal fog driven by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) 20th century reanalysis data set [O'Brien, 2011; O'Brien et al., 2013] shows a century - long decline along the California coast, and a climate projection with the same model hints at a slight decline in the future.

Climate model simulations expect a long - term decrease in ocean heat uptake efficiency as a consequence of global warming.

Because the instrumental record is too short to give a well - constrained estimate of internal variability, internal climate variability is usually estimated from long control simulations from coupled climate models.

There are three possible methods for assessing the background of natural internal variability: examination of the historical data record, examination of the paleoclimatic proxy data record, and long - term climate model simulations.

Although no longer an up - to - date study, the original forcings used in the first transient GISS climate model simulations (Hansen et al., 1988) are occasionally of historical interest.