However, IPCC is surely being a bit sly in saying that 15 - year -
long hiatus periods were «common» in the 20th century.
15 - year -
long hiatus periods are common in both the observed and CMIP5 historical GMST time series (see [Figure 9.8] and also Section 2.4.3, Figure 2.20; Easterling and Wehner, 2009, Liebmann et al., 2010).
I'm wondering if anyone has collected the model runs with
long hiatus periods in them and looked for commonalities... for example extended periods of La Ninas or anything else.
This is supported by historic observations (Figure 1), which shows roughly decade -
long hiatus periods in upper ocean heat content during the 1960s to 1970s, and the 1980s to 1990s.
Not exact matches
In Lynn Shelton's «Laggies,» Keira Knightley steps out of her
period piece comfort zone with Maggie, a colossally unmotivated and perplexed 28 - year - old who decides to take a week -
long hiatus from her fiancé.
When flatlining temperatures wreck your global warming agenda, refusing to rise after 18 +
long years in
hiatus, despite record human CO2 emissions over that same
period, simply homogenise, adjust (tamper) with the data.
Both versions of the Cowtan and Way (2013) data have slightly higher
long - term (1979 - 2012) warming rates than HADCRUT4, but they have much higher warming rates than HADCRUT4 during the
hiatus period of 1997 - 2012.
150 years of warming is actually evidence against since there are two extended
periods of cooling during that time lasting 30 to 40 years each which is far
longer than the current
hiatus.
Interpretation of climate model simulations has emphasized the existence of plateaus or
hiatus in the warming for time scales of up to 15 - 17 years;
longer periods have not been previously anticipated, and the IPCC AR4 clearly expected a warming of 0.2 C per decade for the early part of the 21st century.
There is no warming from 1979 to 1997 which makes this
period another 18 year
long hiatus, only hidden by fake warming.
Researchers found that the studies positing a
hiatus didn't examine a
long enough
period of time to support such a conclusion.
The following graph compares models to observations over the
period 1979 - 2013,
long enough to place the 1998 El Nino in the middle, but excluding the earlier
hiatus of the 1950s and 1960s.
Reviewing my post: — my introduction describes recent statements and seems accurate to me; — my account of IPCC First and Second Draft seems accurate to me and, in any event, unaffected by new papers; — likewise my comments on the SPM and gatekeeping of skeptic submissions on the discrepancy; — my observations about 20th century history also seem accurate to me and not vulnerable to new papers; — I asked questions about the
long past
hiatus and deep ocean during that
period.
The MWP lasted 400 years, the Modern warm
period at similar levels around 30 years with a
hiatus, so the modern warm
period may well have a
long time to run.
It's pretty clear that even if global warming has in some sense «gone away» or «on
hiatus», the world is no
longer producing the reliable weather that it has over the
period of human history.