He also made
a long term prediction of Bitcoin hitting $ 400,000.
The problem here is that we deal with
a long term prediction of a highly variable, noisy signal.
My point is that if an organisation with one of the biggest supercomputers in the world can not forecast the conditions 12 hours ahead for a 5 km grid area, what hope is there for
a long term prediction on a 1 km scale?
I would be inclined to agree with hunter, that the models are useful for studying many aspects of climate, but as yet unproven for
long term prediction.
They acknowledge that the models are nonlinear dynamical systems and exhibit chaos, sensitive dependence on initial conditions that make
long term prediction impossible.
The idea the author is getting at (that
any long term prediction, will probably prove wrong) was captured pretty well (especially as it relates to the global warming debate) by, among others, Michael Crichton.
I don't think Joel Kuni's idea quite adds up in the form he presented it, but certainly
a long term prediction designed to test the climate science would have to be conditional on GHGs.
This was not
some long term prediction, but just 4 - 5 years ahead.
I am making
a long term prediction.
I know right now inflation is really high, but for
a long term prediction doesn't the BoC's inflation rate target of 1 - 3 % mean a 2 % inflation rate is a suitable estimate?
Redknapp enjoys the player but is careful not to enter into
any long term predictions and told us exclusively: «He's a fine player and I'm grateful to West Ham and Sam Allardyce for letting him come here.
«Current
long term predictions indicate that these extreme weather variations will continue and situations such as the current flood events, and disruption caused, underline how adequate maintenance and funding of the network must be a fundamental part of UK transport policy.
Until the new relations are not defined, the industry is not able to make
long term predictions.
Peterson isn't sure how engineers will use the new information, but he says the agency couldn't be confident in
longer term predictions when so many factors — the price of oil, the actions of regulators — could influence earthquake rates.
Long term predictions have typically forecast that by 2050 a half of British adults will be obese; now, David Haslam of the National Obesity Forum says: «It is entirely reasonable to conclude that the determinations of the 2007 Foresight Report, while shocking at the time, may now underestimate the scale of the problem.»
My questions concern specific falsification tests of the quantitative
long term predictions of global temperatures i.e. is it possible to do now with a range of observables?
I'm sure you and your colleagues do their very best but it seems to me that the more climate science develops the more does it become apparent that there is much, much more to learn before reliable
long term predictions could be made.
One does not have to be skeptical about the science of global warming to be skeptical of excessively «certain»
long term predictions that involve weather and climate, the ultimate chaotic system that can not be accurately predicted.
-- Does positive autocorrelation (i.e. dependence) improve
long term predictions?
Global Temperature is an example of a bulk property, and it does indeed average out over sufficient time scales; hence showing that whatever chaos, spatio - temporal or otherwise, is present in the system on short timescales it does not affect
our longer term predictions.
How is «Global Temperature» an «observed property of the system» showing that spatio - temporal chaos «does not affect
our longer term predictions»?
Ault and his colleagues used this index in combination with global climate models to create
long term predictions of how spring onset dates will change in the coming decades.
But perhaps what I should have said was «reliably accurate
long term predictions of chaotic phenomena like weather, politics, or social change».
Long - term strategies should be built not on «visions» of the future but instead on the premise that
longer term predictions (that is, forecasts of situations years and decades out), however presently credible, will probably prove wrong.
You've not shown anything other than
the longer term predictions, along with explicit recognition that there are expected to be unpredictable short term variation, on the scale of decades.
They are therefore not a useful guide to
the longer term predictions.
Those who believe in the dominant influence of CO2 could qualify
their longer term predictions with a CO2 forecast and a + / - allowance for any departure from that expectation.
In economics
long term predictions are perilous.
Not exact matches
There are short -
term trading opportunities, but the chart is a
long way from more optimistic «goldbug»
predictions to a return to previous highs above $ 1,600.
It also contains
predictions and forecasts relating to
long -
term mortgage rates.
He uses history to debunk
long -
term prediction models and shows the common sense of looking at markets through the
long lens of history.
As we've mentioned it previously, CandleStick charts are essentially a form of grid or graph that display short -
term and
long -
term market changes of an asset or asset, and aid in the development of making responsible, practical market
predictions to maximize ROI — one of many useful broker tools available!
The 2016 Best of the Hot List includes ideas from David Dreman on why analysts»
predictions are like powerball tickets, insights from Peter Lynch on what investors can learn from the Maya and a discussion of what elections mean for
long -
term investors.
My interest in Bitcoin is far more
long -
term, and as an Austrian school economist, I know better than to make price
predictions!
So we have positive real estate market
predictions in both the short and
long -
term, from two different sources.
This page provides the latest reported value for - Canada Manufacturing PMI - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short -
term forecast and
long -
term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
Or, to put it another way: Grant Brisbee wrote a free agent
prediction piece for Samardzija, and decided that the Marlins were the team weird enough to give Shark a
long -
term, lucrative contract.
As well as these big more main stream bets we will also pick out a correct score
prediction for each game as well as a first goal scorer
prediction, these are higher odds and less likely to come in but
long term we feel could make a good profit.
Therefore, it is difficult to make any
long -
term predictions until it is clear how much of this vote represented a protest and how much was a call for more far right policies and politics.
«We can all make vague, undated,
long -
term predictions, but the expertise we look for in professional analysts is to name the dates.
At present, the
long -
term recovery of the Ozone Layer from the effects of CFCs is still on track, but the presence of increasing dichloromethane will add some uncertainty to our future
predictions of ozone and climate.»
These far - flung, interconnected weather processes are crucial to making better,
longer -
term weather
predictions than are currently possible.
Changes in the oceans occur more slowly than in the atmosphere, and this
long -
term memory of the ocean is a major key to seasonal and decadal
predictions.
However, the 2015
predictions confirm our projections on
long -
term trends made two years ago that lung cancer death rates would overtake breast cancer in women around 2015.»
«We need both, realistic model simulations and
long -
term data records, and really sophisticated analysis methods to produce reliable climate
predictions.
«Because the complexity of the climate makes accurate
prediction difficult, the APS urges an enhanced effort to understand the effects of human activity on the Earth's climate, and to provide the technological options for meeting the climate challenge in the near and
longer terms.
At present, the
long -
term recovery of the Ozone Layer from the effects of CFCs is still on track, but the presence of increasing dichloromethane will lead to uncertainty in our future
predictions of ozone and climate.»
«The positive association between telomere length and lung adenocarcinoma should be further investigated with the
long term goal of improving
prediction and prevention of this common cancer subtype.»
Long -
term predictions can also help utilities plan new generators to meet future demand.
Depletion of useful materials has often prompted
predictions of doom, but as Richard Webb argues, we need not worry in the
long term