Short duration bond strategies tend to have lower yields than
long duration bond strategies, but when interest rates rise, short duration strategies will experience a smaller price drop.
Since interest rates are at historical lows, we do not recommend investing
in long duration bond funds at this time.
Since there is an inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates, this represents a huge potential capital risk
for longer duration bonds.
Short duration bond strategies have historically had lower yields than
long duration bond strategies, but when interest rates rise, short duration strategies may experience a smaller price drop.
I think people fail to remember the inverse relationship that bond prices and interest rates have... there is potentially a lot of capital risk for people locking up money
in longer duration bonds.
Investors who had the foresight (What does the Bond Market Know, May 7, 2014) and Bond Market Clues, May 14, 2014) to
buy long duration bonds have earned many years» worth of returns in the last few months.
The second example was when a bulge bracket firm called me and asked me if I owned a certain
very long duration bond.
With a few exceptions, it has paid recently for bond managers to play on the riskier areas of their mandates, with the exception of high
quality long duration bonds, which were the big winners last year, and the big losers this year so far.
For shorter duration bonds with high levels of credit risk, interest rates will not impact the value of these securities to the same degree as
longer duration bonds with low levels of credit risk.
Back when dividend yields were higher, and corporate bond yields were higher, both absolute and relative yield managers flourished as interest rates and dividend yields crested in the early 1980s, and the stocks paying high dividends got bid up as interest rates fell, much as the same thing happened to zero coupon and other
noncallable long duration bonds.
The pace of the current hiking cycle and the modest flattening of the yield curve over the past two years have been positive
for long duration bonds.
Given all the furor over investing
in long duration bonds for pensions versus equities, it is funny that the PBGC rejected the growing conventional wisdom that DB plans should invest in safe long bonds.
He said the team thinks there aren't enough rate hikes priced into the fixed - income market and therefore he likes the long end of the yield curve, or
longer duration bonds.
While still low by historical standards, the spike in yields has returned some value to
long duration bonds, which now appear more reasonable, or at least less overpriced.
The only shortcoming is that (I assume) that the bonds you are using are
long duration bonds, which are much more volatile and suffer deeper losses when interest rates rise, compared to shorter duration bonds.
The market will do so by increasing the price of the high quality,
long duration bonds that we currently favor to levels that no longer offer a compelling return and margin of safety.
The longer duration the bond the larger the swing.
Short duration bond strategies tend to have lower yields than
long duration bond strategies, but when interest rates rise, short duration strategies will experience a smaller price drop.
That same leverage aversion exists among fixed income investors —
longer duration bonds may be over-priced on a risk - adjusted basis compared to similar bonds of a shorter maturity (Barclays).
Tobacco settlement bonds tracked by the S&P Municipal Bond Tobacco Index are down nearly 9 % year to date as yields have risen by over 255bps as the credit risk of
these long duration bonds is questioned.
Recent arbitration results have been positive but uncertainty over future disputes and tobacco consumption are pulling
these long duration bonds down.
The longer duration bonds obviously suffer the most.
Of course, if you own
a longer duration bond portfolio these numbers will not look nearly as friendly.
But when rates rise,
long duration bond strategies can experience sharp price declines.
Short duration bond strategies have historically had lower yields than
long duration bond strategies, but when interest rates rise, short duration strategies may experience a smaller price drop.
Notable exceptions include an inverted yield curve, where shorter duration bonds have higher yields than
longer duration bonds.)
These high yield,
long duration bonds are impacted by both credit risk driven by declining tobacco use and the possibility of rising rates.
Don't forget, however, that money you expect to use within a relatively short time period should not be invested in volatile assets such as stocks or
long duration bonds.
Throughout the process, we take advantage of short and
long duration bonds and loans as interest rates change.
So,
longer duration bonds are a good thing when rates are rising?
And the big caveat here is that
longer duration bonds or bond funds (such as 20 or 30 years) are problematic regardless, because their prices will decrease much more precipitously when interest rates eventually rise.
When interest rates begin to rise then I'll think about whether to sell some of
the longer duration bonds.
But within the right context, thinking of the stock market like
a long duration bond has many advantages: